Global model runs discussion

[BigB0882]

I seriously doubt we have to wait until late August for things to get going. The MJO is not the ONLY thing controlling tropical formation. The MJO is much more important early in the season when conditions are not yet as good as they will be. When we get into the heart of the season, which is mid August, the conditions are good enough for things to get going even without the MJO in the more favorable phases. This is how I understand it, at least.

[Hurricane Andrew]

if things dont pick up by late august its onto next season.

This is a ridiculous post.

[TheStormExpert]

I seriously doubt we have to wait until late August for things to get going. The MJO is not the ONLY thing controlling tropical formation. The MJO is much more important early in the season when conditions are not yet as good as they will be. When we get into the heart of the season, which is mid August, the conditions are good enough for things to get going even without the MJO in the more favorable phases. This is how I understand it, at least.

I know 2004 is a good example of how quickly things can heat up once we head into early/mid August. But I also have been on here for a few years now and don't remember the MJO being as much as an problem if not present for development as it seems to be this year, overall I feel like I have been hearing the term MJO a lot since about the beginning of May and how big of a factor it is for development. I jut currently have funny feeling that this season is not going to be close to as bad as forecasters are predicting, I feel like they may bust with their forecast again just like last year. JMO

[BigB0882]

I have also heard much more about the MJO this year, as though it is the only way to predict a storm. I wonder why that is. It seems odd that I don't remember so much talk about it before, is the MJO more important this season for some reason? I think the MJO has just been important early in the season and we will forget all about it by mid August when conditions don't require the MJO to be in phase 1 or 2.

[Ntxw]

I have also heard much more about the MJO this year, as though it is the only way to predict a storm. I wonder why that is. It seems odd that I don't remember so much talk about it before, is the MJO more important this season for some reason? I think the MJO has just been important early in the season and we will forget all about it by mid August when conditions don't require the MJO to be in phase 1 or 2.

I think it's simply people are understanding better the role it plays. You are absolutely correct we do not need the MJO for activity. An oceanic Kelvin wave can do it as well. It's just that the past several seasons various factors have inhibited development early on, and so far this year much has been the same. It's been hostile with storms moving too fast or shear in the vicinity etc without the MJO. When the MJO moves over it can overcome this and we see development in bundles, that's why it's been handy. Once in the peak season, less emphasis will be put on the MJO (though study clearly shows when you have favorable phases there is a significant amount of storms that not only become hurricanes but major hurricanes).

Last year, if I recall correctly the August frenzy happened during the 1-2-3 octants as well as Sandy.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS develops a low off Africa in 4 days and loses it east of the islands in 9 days and carries the wave through the Caribbean towards Yucatan...Elsewhere, pretty quiet.

[ninel conde]

12z GFS develops a low off Africa in 4 days and loses it east of the islands in 9 days and carries the wave through the Caribbean towards Yucatan...Elsewhere, pretty quiet.

i think i can see why. pressures are much too high in the tropics.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=240hr

Euro out to 240 isnt too positive for development. pressures too high in the tropics, NAO looks a bit negative and low pressure is ove se canada with a trough off the east coast. if the lower pressures that are over the tropical pacific were over the atlantic we would be in business. pretty amazing we are seeing 1016-1020mb pressures dominating the tropics.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Remember everyone it often doesn't matter how many storms there are. What is far more important is where they go, and how strong they are when they get there. Both 1991 and 1992 had few storms. 1991 had category 3 (cat. 2 at landfall) Hurricane Bob and the Perfect Storm. 1992 had category 5 Hurricane Andrew. Need I write more.

[somethingfunny]

Go home GFS, you're drunk

This is why I haven't been paying attention at all yet.

[cycloneye]

Well folks, 18z GFS has a CV wave developing in 84 hours. Let's see what it has after this down the timeframe.

[AtlanticWind]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... _thick.gif

It still hangs on to the system out to 147 hours.Could be are next player.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

994mb @ 192 hours:

[cycloneye]

I prefer to wait for the more complete data 00z run to see if it has it before I get enthusiastic.

[RL3AO]

I'm just glad we're tracking something under 200 hours away.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS 228 and 288 hour images:

[Alyono]

I prefer to wait for the more complete data 00z run to see if it has it before I get enthusiastic.

As I already said, the 18Z has nearly as much data as does the 0Z. You're operating 10 years in the past when you say 18Z has much less than 0. Satellite data is actually now assimilated with realistic weights into the models (remember, without the sat data, the models would have butchered Sandy)

[TheStormExpert]

I prefer to wait for the more complete data 00z run to see if it has it before I get enthusiastic.

As I already said, the 18Z has nearly as much data as does the 0Z. You're operating 10 years in the past when you say 18Z has much less than 0. Satellite data is actually now assimilated with realistic weights into the models (remember, without the sat data, the models would have butchered Sandy)

The way I always thought and looked at it was the 0z is the best followed by 12z, 18z, and 6z in that order. (From best to worst) JMO.

Of course models do improve over the years so they are probably all good now.

[gatorcane]

A couple of more images from the 18Z GFS run:

312 hours:


348 hours:

[cycloneye]

The difference this run has from prior runs by GFS is it starts to develop in less than 96 hours. Let's see if this model on the operational and it's ensembles continue with this. Also,let's see if the ECMWF joins later.