Global model runs discussion

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ninel conde

#5281 Postby ninel conde » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:59 pm

thanks, i thought the NHC quit advisories before it hit land. in any case the trend contunes.
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#5282 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:03 pm

Sandy was a cat 1 hurricane impact but not a US landfall.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/USh ... ailed.html
Last edited by HURAKAN on Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#5283 Postby ninel conde » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:05 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Sandy was a cat 1 hurricane impact but not a US landfall.



ok, so back to 2 landfalls?
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Re: Re:

#5284 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:21 pm

ninel conde wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Sandy was a cat 1 hurricane impact but not a US landfall.



ok, so back to 2 landfalls?


Depends how you count them, Sandy was extratropical or post tropical at landfall but still had cat one winds.
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ninel conde

#5285 Postby ninel conde » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:29 pm

2 or 3, no need to argue about that. anyway, since its slow i thought it would be cool to go to the beginning of the thread and look back at the maps posted in 2009 to see model canes. im in aug 2009 and i see euro maps showing zilch and im thinking i know 09 wasnt as slow as now. then i saw the euro maps were 240 hr maps for aug 08 2013. odd.
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TheStormExpert

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5286 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:37 pm

ninel conde wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:I think I am going to reduce number of august storms to three. I also find that fact very interesting. And you are correct about trends. The last couple seasons were dominated by troughs and ull's And as you said its continuing and just because we get into august and September I don't see that coming to an end. Maybe slack off a bit but come September fronts should start becoming even more frequent with just as hostile conditions. We shall see. So far as wxman said the gfs is agreeing.


this pattern has been persistent for years now. just about everyone said this season would feature the return of the deep tropics and numerous landfalls. just shows how little we actually know. maybe we need an el nino to have a hurricane season.

You do realize that 3 out of the 4 storms we've had so far this season have developed in the deep tropics unlike last year.

Last year we had our first 2 storms form off the SE US followed by a rare June hurricane in the far North Atlantic. Then came Debby which formed in the central GOM. NONE of the first 4 storms last year developed in the deep tropics.
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ninel conde

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5287 Postby ninel conde » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:56 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
ninel conde wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:I think I am going to reduce number of august storms to three. I also find that fact very interesting. And you are correct about trends. The last couple seasons were dominated by troughs and ull's And as you said its continuing and just because we get into august and September I don't see that coming to an end. Maybe slack off a bit but come September fronts should start becoming even more frequent with just as hostile conditions. We shall see. So far as wxman said the gfs is agreeing.


this pattern has been persistent for years now. just about everyone said this season would feature the return of the deep tropics and numerous landfalls. just shows how little we actually know. maybe we need an el nino to have a hurricane season.

You do realize that 3 out of the 4 storms we've had so far this season have developed in the deep tropics unlike last year.

Last year we had our first 2 storms form off the SE US followed by a rare June hurricane in the far North Atlantic. Then came Debby which formed in the central GOM. NONE of the first 4 storms last year developed in the deep tropics.


yes, i am aware of it. however, 1 was buried deep in the BOC and the other 2 also fell apart over deep tropical waters.
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Re: Re:

#5288 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 10:24 pm

ninel conde wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:That could be true but wait until August actually happens before we all start looking into a crystal ball!


true enough. i certainly expect a burst of 2 or 3 storms sometime between aug15-oct01

A burst of 2 to 3 storms between aug15-oct1? I'll take that bet and give 100 to 1 odds! Moreover, I'll lay 1 to 3 odds on 2 to 3 storms between aug15-sept1.
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Re: Re:

#5289 Postby ninel conde » Tue Jul 30, 2013 5:37 am

hurricanehunter69 wrote:
ninel conde wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:That could be true but wait until August actually happens before we all start looking into a crystal ball!


true enough. i certainly expect a burst of 2 or 3 storms sometime between aug15-oct01

A burst of 2 to 3 storms between aug15-oct1? I'll take that bet and give 100 to 1 odds! Moreover, I'll lay 1 to 3 odds on 2 to 3 storms between aug15-sept1.


i mean a "burst" in a 2 to 3 week period. others may also form.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5290 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:20 am

This is the global models thread, not a thread for people to once again repeat over and over why they think a season will be slow. Let's stick to model runs and commentary about those runs.

Thanks.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5291 Postby blp » Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:16 am

This could be why the models are not showing anything in the short term. That looks like a big SAL storm.

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5292 Postby blp » Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:24 am

I know this is 10 days out. CMC ensemble and Euro look to be showing lowering pressures off the coast of africa.

CMC ensembles:
Image

EURO:
Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5293 Postby otowntiger » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:15 pm

blp wrote:I know this is 10 days out. CMC ensemble and Euro look to be showing lowering pressures off the coast of africa.

CMC ensembles:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_21.png

EURO:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf- ... /slp10.png
that's quite the ridge of high pressure! If anything does brew up in the eastern Atlantic it would almost certainly be ushered toward FL/Gulf if that set up verifies/maintains.
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ninel conde

#5294 Postby ninel conde » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:27 pm

through 180 hrs the GFS is showing a very powerful neg NAO which will make mr bastardis prediction of a cold august verify. also, a neg NAO of this magnitude will strip away any west atlantic ridge and replace it with a trof causing such a cold august.
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Re:

#5295 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:29 pm

ninel conde wrote:through 180 hrs the GFS is showing a very powerful neg NAO which will make mr bastardis prediction of a cold august verify. also, a neg NAO of this magnitude will strip away and west atlantic ridge and replace it with a trof causing such a cold august.


Also,a negative NAO promotes warmer waters in MDR with less trade winds.
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Re: Re:

#5296 Postby ninel conde » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ninel conde wrote:through 180 hrs the GFS is showing a very powerful neg NAO which will make mr bastardis prediction of a cold august verify. also, a neg NAO of this magnitude will strip away and west atlantic ridge and replace it with a trof causing such a cold august.


Also,a negative NAO promotes warmer waters in MDR with less trade winds.



quite possible. alot like last season. last season had very dry air, low instability in the atlantic tropics, a neg NAO, and east coast trof. what may be different this time is the magnitude of the coming trof and cold. last season august was not cool despite the persistent trof. in any case, the models the next few days should give us big clues as to how aug15-oct01 will evolve.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5297 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:38 pm

Is the current run of the Euro still showing development in the long range
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5298 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:41 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Is the current run of the Euro still showing development in the long range


Not there yet, only at 168H
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5299 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:51 pm

Euro shows slow pressure drops in the eastern Atlantic, areas of 1016 at the start of the run, 1014 at 192 hours, 1012 with significant areas of vorticity at 216 hours. One more frame to go.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5300 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:05 pm

Nothing, just generally lower pressure.
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