Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Nothing, just generally lower pressure.

What I take away from this is the Euro is hinting at something due to the MJO going into phase 2 while the GFS sees nothing due to the MJO staying in the circle

[gatorcane]

Not very surprising global models are not showing any Cape Verde activity yet. That typically gets going in mid August, starting around Aug 15th and we are only going out to Aug. 9th when you look at the long-range ECMWF. I know the GFS goes out to 384 hours but after about 240 hours it's really quite unreliable. Almost there but not quite!

[Bocadude85]

through 180 hrs the GFS is showing a very powerful neg NAO which will make mr bastardis prediction of a cold august verify. also, a neg NAO of this magnitude will strip away any west atlantic ridge and replace it with a trof causing such a cold august.

Does not last long as strong ridging takes over later in the run.

Here is the 12zGFS 384hr forecast

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_384_1000_850_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=1000_850_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

[Kingarabian]

The GFS has done a great job in sniffing out these recent EPAC systems. Usually activity is surpressed in the Atlantic when the EPAC is active, right?

[cycloneye]

Let's see if the switch goes up towards developments on the GFS after August 16 and ECMWF when it reaches that same date. If the models don't have anything developing after that date,then something is not right among them or the Atlantic is not as favorable as believed in past months by the experts.

[gatorcane]

In case anybody wants to look at the 240 hour ECMWF forecast...not showing much besides some disturbed weather off of Africa embedded in the ITCZ...big ULL north of the Great Lakes though. Looks like something you would see in late October or November!

[cycloneye]

Well folks,I am going to post some entertainment as things are boring right? This is the super long range CFS showing a true CV development in terms of strength and track. Saved images.

August 17



August 19



August 20



August 22



August 23



August 25

[ninel conde]

In case anybody wants to look at the 240 hour ECMWF forecast...not showing much besides some disturbed weather off of Africa embedded in the ITCZ...big ULL north of the Great Lakes though. Looks like something you would see in late October or November!

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/1256/4xg.gif

that backs up JOE BASTARDI.

[blp]

Well folks,I am going to post some entertainment as things are boring right? This is the super long range CFS showing a true CV development in terms of strength and track. Saved images.

Yes the CFS is very entertaining for when times get slow. What I get out of the model looking at several runs over the past month is that we will see a pattern for a strong ridge that will push storms closer than in years past to landfall locations.

Over the last two years the CFS correctly predicted the weakness in the mid atlantic which later on materialized as the season progressed. So it does provide some value if you look for an average from run to run of the steering pattern.

[wxman57]

Well folks,I am going to post some entertainment as things are boring right? This is the super long range CFS showing a true CV development in terms of strength and track. Saved images.

Nothing to worry about, Luis. It's clearly going to miss the NE Caribbean in 3 weeks and then recurve east of the U.S.

[blp]

Well folks,I am going to post some entertainment as things are boring right? This is the super long range CFS showing a true CV development in terms of strength and track. Saved images.

Nothing to worry about, Luis. It's clearly going to miss the NE Caribbean in 3 weeks and then recurve east of the U.S.

What are your thoughts regarding the season as we approach August? Do you think we will see a pattern change from the last couple of years or more of the same troughiness? Your insight is always appreciated. Thanks

[Cyclenall]

In case anybody wants to look at the 240 hour ECMWF forecast...not showing much besides some disturbed weather off of Africa embedded in the ITCZ...big ULL north of the Great Lakes though. Looks like something you would see in late October or November!

I heard something about it being a possible PV coming down from the Hudson, my nightmare for summer. If this trash keeps up, I'm going to be weather-free for at least a whole month. It would be a continuation of the absolute worst pattern I can conceive in my imagination.

Nothing to worry about, Luis. It's clearly going to miss the NE Caribbean in 3 weeks and then recurve east of the U.S.

Even the ultra long-range CFS shows ultra lameness, wow! Also notice it doesn't show more than one system at a time...is this a super Nino or neutral conditions?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ Cyclenall bring on the early nor'easters, at least that will give us something to track on the East Coast.

[Cyclenall]

@ Cyclenall bring on the early nor'easters, at least that will give us something to track on the East Coast.

I don't get any enjoyment in tracking rain during the summer, even extreme rain. Unless its a winter storm in August, there is nothing to see. All there would be is a ruined mood and summer for all. It would set up major flooding potential later on in the fall if tropical systems start coming up as the east is soaked currently.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ Cyclenall bring on the early nor'easters, at least that will give us something to track on the East Coast.

I don't get any enjoyment in tracking rain during the summer, even extreme rain. Unless its a winter storm in August, there is nothing to see. All there would be is a ruined mood and summer for all. It would set up major flooding potential later on in the fall if tropical systems start coming up as the east is soaked currently.

Darn, it was just a joke my friend.

[BigB0882]

In case anybody wants to look at the 240 hour ECMWF forecast...not showing much besides some disturbed weather off of Africa embedded in the ITCZ...big ULL north of the Great Lakes though. Looks like something you would see in late October or November!

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/1256/4xg.gif

that backs up JOE BASTARDI.

Well, to be fair, Bastardi was referencing the Euro when he said that so the Euro backs up the Euro with that logic.

[ninel conde]

In case anybody wants to look at the 240 hour ECMWF forecast...not showing much besides some disturbed weather off of Africa embedded in the ITCZ...big ULL north of the Great Lakes though. Looks like something you would see in late October or November!

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/1256/4xg.gif

that backs up JOE BASTARDI.

Well, to be fair, Bastardi was referencing the Euro when he said that so the Euro backs up the Euro with that logic.

GFS shows a monster neg NAO which has to force a big east coast trof.

['CaneFreak]

GFS shows a monster neg NAO which has to force a big east coast trof.

NO.

Number 1: A -NAO does NOT have ANYTHING to do with an east coast trough. I have seen MANY negative NAOs with NO east coast trough. Get that line of thinking out of your head!
Number 2: The NAO index REFLECTS the pattern that is existing...not the other way around. The NAO doesn't physically force an east coast trough. The -NAO is a reflection of the already existing pattern over the north Atlantic.
Number 3: Not all negative NAOs are created equal. You can have an EAST BASED negative NAO which has little or no effect on the pattern on the east coast at all.
Number 4: When it comes to negative NAOs and hurricane activity, not all negative NAOs deflect storms away from the US. It totally depends on where the hurricane is in the given situation.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

All I get out of that is there appears to be yet another east coast trough setting up for the mid to latter part of august. One this weekend, another forecast for mid and another towards the end of the month. Does not look any different out there than the last two seasons.

['CaneFreak]

There is much more expansive ridging in the Atlantic overall than the last two seasons.

All I get out of that is there appears to be yet another east coast trough setting up for the mid to latter part of august. One this weekend, another forecast for mid and another towards the end of the month. Does not look any different out there than the last two seasons.