Global model runs discussion

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PTrackerLA
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5381 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 01, 2013 4:13 pm

We could use some tropical moisture from the Gulf this month. We are about 6.5" below normal since June 1st and the "moderate drought" status is slowly approaching my area. Has been a very dull summer for this area weather wise. Not at all what I expected following a very wet and active winter and spring. I don't even think we've really been affected by any tropical waves this summer either which seems highly unusual.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5382 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:53 pm

Was just going to mention that very thing the other day. That we have not even been affected by a tropical wave passing by us in the gulf. That seems very unusual even for, dare I say it, JULY :roll: And doesn't look like we are going to see any anytime soon either thanks to the Sal outbreak.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5383 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:23 pm

The last few runs of the GFS have shown an area SSW of the Azores around day 5 heading SW into the tropical atlantic so this may be a feature to keep an eye on. The 0zGFS does the same thing forming a trough of low pressure from an ULL SSW of the Azores and moves it SW into the tropical atlantic. I just thought I would mention it
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ninel conde

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5384 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:34 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The last few runs of the GFS have shown an area SSW of the Azores around day 5 heading SW into the tropical atlantic so this may be a feature to keep an eye on. The 0zGFS does the same thing forming a trough of low pressure from an ULL SSW of the Azores and moves it SW into the tropical atlantic. I just thought I would mention it


with this pattern thats where development might come from.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5385 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:26 am

Hardly anything on the 06z GFS through August 18th, anything coming off Africa after the 18th would be 7+ days from the islands and 10+ days from the CONUS...Any potential landfall from a true CV system may be in September at this point...
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ninel conde

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5386 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:01 am

Blown Away wrote:Hardly anything on the 06z GFS through August 18th, anything coming off Africa after the 18th would be 7+ days from the islands and 10+ days from the CONUS...Any potential landfall from a true CV system may be in September at this point...



I would not entirely rule out a weak subtropical development, though i agree about your CV thoughts.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5387 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:28 am

:uarrow: of course you agree....you have been as negative as one can get since you joined... :roll:

the 00Z CMC shows some promising waves in the short range making there way across the ATL...I wouldnt just rely the GFS...
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andrewsurvivor
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5388 Postby andrewsurvivor » Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:48 am

We all know things can and do change on long range models. I wouldn't put too much credence on any single model or day.
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#5389 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:04 pm

Might have to watch the SW Caribbean in 10 or so days. The GFS has been on and off with development and the CMC has an area of low pressure. Pattern looks to favor such.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5390 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:19 pm

Any opinion on this model, FIM?
http://fim.noaa.gov/
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#5391 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:28 pm

Agreed. The ECMWF is also showing a lowering of pressures in that general vicinity as well around the same time frame.

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Might have to watch the SW Caribbean in 10 or so days. The GFS has been on and off with development and the CMC has an area of low pressure. Pattern looks to favor such.
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#5392 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:51 pm

CMC ensembles also have lower pressures in the eastern Atlantic in about 7 days.
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#5393 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:50 pm

Long range GFS is showing the waves coming off of Africa near 15N or even higher.

That is one way to ensure we have a very quiet Cape Verde Season
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Re:

#5394 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:01 pm

Alyono wrote:Long range GFS is showing the waves coming off of Africa near 15N or even higher.

That is one way to ensure we have a very quiet Cape Verde Season



you have a map of that? does it show anything developing?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5395 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:25 pm

Can't post a picture but the 18z GFS does have the storm in the West Caribbean again, very similar path to Barry's but slightly stronger.
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ninel conde

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5396 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 02, 2013 7:01 pm

Siker wrote:Can't post a picture but the 18z GFS does have the storm in the West Caribbean again, very similar path to Barry's but slightly stronger.



makes sense. i said in another post the one place to see development or landfall would be the BOC.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5397 Postby CourierPR » Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:05 pm

ninel conde wrote:
Siker wrote:Can't post a picture but the 18z GFS does have the storm in the West Caribbean again, very similar path to Barry's but slightly stronger.



makes sense. i said in another post the one place to see development or landfall would be the BOC.



The Western Caribbean isn't the BOC.
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ninel conde

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5398 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:21 pm

CourierPR wrote:
ninel conde wrote:
Siker wrote:Can't post a picture but the 18z GFS does have the storm in the West Caribbean again, very similar path to Barry's but slightly stronger.



makes sense. i said in another post the one place to see development or landfall would be the BOC.



The Western Caribbean isn't the BOC.


no, but i pulled up the long range GFS and it shows a low forming in the west carib moving into the BOC.
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#5399 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:21 pm

The GFS might be picking up on increasing instability across the EPAC and Western Caribbean starting in about one week according to the climate prediction center CHI 200 hPa with the SW Caribbean system it is showing in the long-range:

Image
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Re:

#5400 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:56 pm

Beat you to it...I posted this yesterday. :moon: :larrow: I LOVE that emoticon... :roflmao:

gatorcane wrote:The GFS might be picking up on increasing instability across the EPAC and Western Caribbean starting in about one week according to the climate prediction center CHI 200 hPa with the SW Caribbean system it is showing in the long-range:

Image
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