Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

18Z TS in the BOC.....



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[ROCK]

granted its la la land but it shows that in a week or two the lid is coming off...IMO....

[Hurricaneman]

Can't post a picture but the 18z GFS does have the storm in the West Caribbean again, very similar path to Barry's but slightly stronger.

one can't possibly know if this is even going to form going by what the GFS has done this year but the other globals are saying this could form so this is a possibility but the steering is the unknown at this time as the GFS has a ridge, the Canadian has a troughy mess, the Euro has some troughyness so either the GFS is right or the northern gulf is going to have to monitor this

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[LaBreeze]

:uarrow: granted its la la land but it shows that in a week or two the lid is coming off...IMO....

Please elaborate - what are some of the scenarios that you are seeing with this? Fill us in -

[Hurricane Alexis]

00z CMC has a storm in the central gulf at the end of the run. Seems to be from a disturbance in the ITCZ pulling up north in 3-4 days.

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from the models in terms of CV activity developing anytime soon.Only a hint in Western Caribbean/BOC.

[RL3AO]

First hint of a pattern change in the basin over the next week. 500mb ridge moves north towards Europe as super low pressures move in over the MDR. Maybe a slight reprieve in the trade winds, but not much.

[ninel conde]

First hint of a pattern change in the basin over the next week. 500mb ridge moves north towards Europe as super low pressures move in over the MDR. Maybe a slight reprieve in the trade winds, but not much.

i checked the 384 hr GFS and the pattern looks great with lower pressures. what we cant see of course is whether the mid level dry air is gone.

[RL3AO]

700mb RH% for 06 GFS

Currently 10 to 30% in MDR and 30 to 40% in Caribbean
144hrs: 20 to 50% in MDR and 30 to 60% in Caribbean
384hrs: Large swath of 60 to 90% RH values in MDR with 40 to 50% above 15N. Caribbean overall average of 50 to 60%.

[ninel conde]

700mb RH% for 06 GFS

Currently 10 to 30% in MDR and 30 to 40% in Caribbean
144hrs: 20 to 50% in MDR and 30 to 60% in Caribbean
384hrs: Large swath of 60 to 90% RH values in MDR with 40 to 50% above 15N. Caribbean overall average of 50 to 60%.

we should expect something significant to develop on the models in that case for after aug 20.

[RL3AO]

Of course it is kinda to be expected for things to become more favorable by August 20th. Would be strange if they didn't.

[Macrocane]

What's happening with the GFS? I'm getting crazy with its issues, every site I visit to look at that model seems to have problems running it:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/newwna_10m_gfs_00z.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... rica.shtml

The only one I found that works 100% is this one:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RIOD=&WMO=

But it doesn't have the same features for 700, 500 and 300 mb relative vorticity and relative humidity I am looking for.

[cycloneye]

What's happening with the GFS? I'm getting crazy with its issues, every site I visit to look at that model seems to have problems running it:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/newwna_10m_gfs_00z.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... rica.shtml

The only one I found that works 100% is this one:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RIOD=&WMO=

But it doesn't have the same features for 700, 500 and 300 mb relative vorticity and relative humidity I am looking for.

This is a good site where you can find the different features.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

[Macrocane]

This is a good site where you can find the different features.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

Very nice site cycloneye! I didn't know it, thank you very much.

[rockyman]

The 00z Canadian's Gulf storm appears to originate from an area of mid-level vorticity currently in the central Atlantic:



There is limited convection right now, with the dry SAL to the north:



Here is the system in about 6 days...nearing Puerto Rico:

[ROCK]

:uarrow: granted its la la land but it shows that in a week or two the lid is coming off...IMO....

Please elaborate - what are some of the scenarios that you are seeing with this? Fill us in -

A. models long range sniffing out development
B. models suggesting lowering pressures
C. the MJO is making its way around in a week or 2
D. the sst's are toasty
E. CSU updated their forecast to 18/8/3...we are not even close yet
F. the current SAL surge will be gone
G. Climo suggest an uptick in August
H. model suggest strong ridging in the long range which would result in US landfalls
I. gut feeling
J. I had a vision
K. I was eating my mash potatoes and for some reason I started making a cat 5 hurricane out of them.


thats all I can think of attm....

[Steve H.]

Was there gravey or butter on them?

['CaneFreak]

What you talking about Willis? There ain't nothing there...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

00z CMC has a storm in the central gulf at the end of the run. Seems to be from a disturbance in the ITCZ pulling up north in 3-4 days.

[Alyono]

What you talking about Willis? There ain't nothing there...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

00z CMC has a storm in the central gulf at the end of the run. Seems to be from a disturbance in the ITCZ pulling up north in 3-4 days.

that's because you are only looking through 180 hours. It forms at 240 hours

['CaneFreak]

Why thank you good sir! I see said the blind man

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html

What you talking about Willis? There ain't nothing there...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

00z CMC has a storm in the central gulf at the end of the run. Seems to be from a disturbance in the ITCZ pulling up north in 3-4 days.

that's because you are only looking through 180 hours. It forms at 240 hours