Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

12Z FIM9 update.....

still sniffing something at 168hr near the Yucatan

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocal ... perimental FIM Model Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=244&adtfn=1

Those links won't work due to the spaces it contains. This shortened link will work to reach the model page:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/

And the link to the actual image will work:


I suppose that given the pattern change predicted across the tropics next week we'll need to keep an eye on anything that moves into the Caribbean or Gulf. Can't really identify the source of this forecast yet. There is a very weak wave along 57W today. Can't tell if the FIM is moving that toward the NW Caribbean in a week.

[ROCK]

its the same time frame as the NAVGEM feature...lifts off the monsoon trof over SA...

[wxman57]

its the same time frame as the NAVGEM feature...lifts off the monsoon trof over SA...

Yes, that's where it appears to originate. We'll see. Perhaps hurricane season isn't over quite yet...

[Alyono]

So the Euro continues to

why do you even mention the ECMWF when it is well known that it is worth less than the paper its output is printed upon when it comes to genesis?

Is one of the main reliable global models that the NWS offices and NHC uses.

yeah.. for TRACK

For genesis there is ZERO skill. Must be something in its parameterization that does not allow it to develop TCs in the deep tropics

['CaneFreak]

I almost wet my pants when I saw that. Too funny. Yeah I think it needs to be watched as well given that at least a couple of models are indicating development.

its the same time frame as the NAVGEM feature...lifts off the monsoon trof over SA...

Yes, that's where it appears to originate. We'll see. Perhaps hurricane season isn't over quite yet...

[Rgv20]

18zGFS showing some signs in the longer range...We shall see what future runs show..


18zGFS 10 days out.


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[Hurricane Alexis]

18z GFS still showing a TS in the far eastern atlantic.



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

its the same time frame as the NAVGEM feature...lifts off the monsoon trof over SA...

Yes, that's where it appears to originate. We'll see. Perhaps hurricane season isn't over quite yet...

Too funny wxman. I was definitely starting to wonder myself.

Hate to rain on everyone's parade but wasn't it the same gfs that started showing the wave train and developing storms lining the Atlantic a month ago and everybody was clamoring about the season was about to get real and business was about to pick up. And what happened after a few days of that, zilch. Lets give it a coupke more 3-4 days and see if any other models latch on or not.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS was a very weak run. Let's see what the 00z has.

[SoupBone]

Please stop with the fish comments when we have nothing yet. Ths GFS is intially out to see with most systems coming off Africa.

Why? That's what being objective is. People are commenting on what the models show, and not interjecting personal opinions.

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM----another run with a hurricane into the Yucatan channel....this time more intense...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


that run would be incredibly bad for someone in the GOM....

FINALLY...Wxmn57 gives off some positive energy!!

[weatherwindow]

its the same time frame as the NAVGEM feature...lifts off the monsoon trof over SA...

IMHO..Its the semi-permanent Columbian surface low being pulled off the coast by a fairly stout ULL and the monsoon trof migrates north into the south central Caribbean. That the common sequence for genesis in the SW Caribbean

[Alyono]

looks to be a TD on the NAVGEM, maybe a weak TS

[BigB0882]

looks to be a TD on the NAVGEM, maybe a weak TS

That's only a weak TS on the NAVGEM? What in the world does a full fledged hurricane look like, then? It has very tight isobars.

[gatorcane]

18Z FIM-9 is continuing to show the Western Caribbean / Yucatan system. 168 hour graphic below:

[ninel conde]

looks to be a TD on the NAVGEM, maybe a weak TS

That's only a weak TS on the NAVGEM? What in the world does a full fledged hurricane look like, then? It has very tight isobars.

Alyono is right. looks pretty weak and until the pattern changes or it gets more model support it seems a remote possibility. 18zGFS shows basically nothing thru aug 24th. at 384 hrs its shows a low moving off ne of the cape verdes and lower pressure over the yucatan, but thats not much for the heart of the season

[Hammy]

18zGFS shows basically nothing thru aug 24th.

it actually shows 30mph/1007mb in the Gulf on 18th which could be early hints of tropical depression/storm. In addition to that, the last few panels before the resolution drop due to time frame has a tropical storm on 8/16 near CV. Obviously nothing set in stone but it is certainly showing more activity, and since it seems to have gone the way of the Euro with the upgrade given how poorly it handled Dorian in the last days before development, as well as the Navy model showing Caribbean development, it is increasingly likely that we'll bet getting something by the next few weekends.

[ninel conde]

18zGFS shows basically nothing thru aug 24th.

it actually shows 30mph/1007mb in the Gulf on 18th which could be early hints of tropical depression/storm. In addition to that, the last few panels before the resolution drop due to time frame has a tropical storm on 8/16 near CV. Obviously nothing set in stone but it is certainly showing more activity, and since it seems to have gone the way of the Euro with the upgrade given how poorly it handled Dorian in the last days before development, as well as the Navy model showing Caribbean development, it is increasingly likely that we'll bet getting something by the next few weekends.

this is 192 hours:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp32.png

you may be referring to the 12z gfs which did have a weak cv system at 240 and maybe a very weak low near the yuc at 192. i dont see it on the 18z

[ROCK]

looks to be a TD on the NAVGEM, maybe a weak TS

That's only a weak TS on the NAVGEM? What in the world does a full fledged hurricane look like, then? It has very tight isobars.

Alyono is right. looks pretty weak and until the pattern changes or it gets more model support it seems a remote possibility. 18zGFS shows basically nothing thru aug 24th. at 384 hrs its shows a low moving off ne of the cape verdes and lower pressure over the yucatan, but thats not much for the heart of the season

weak? yeah ok.. ...this is like th 10th run in a row from the NAVGEM with different intensities....I know I have been posting just about every single run. This run by far is the most intense...thats not a TD nor a TS....that is a hurricane. You dont have isobars that compact.....but according to you the season is over so we just need to shut the board down....

[tolakram]

Let' avoid the personal attacks and stick to the data please. I know it's tough sometimes ... looks at a particular poster ... but let's just keep moving here.

I agree it looks like a strong storm, I disagree conditions are not getting better. It's silly to argue about it. Either we will have an active season, or we won't.