Global model runs discussion

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I still think it's going to be active as the meat of the season approaches but it is really wierd to see all of the models showing absolutely nothing in the MDR all the way out 3 weeks.

[Hammy]

Perhaps the upgrades made them lave a low bias vs a high one?

[cycloneye]

Here is a tweet by JB.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5m
See the GFS is starting to show the tropics coming to life. Until ECMWF concurs, call me skeptical

Well,he may not know that this is the same model that's missed every tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic and said that Utor would be a 1002mb tropical cyclone at peak a few days ago.

[ninel conde]

Here is a tweet by JB.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5m
See the GFS is starting to show the tropics coming to life. Until ECMWF concurs, call me skeptical

Well,he may not know that this is the same model that's missed every tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic and said that Utor would be a 1002mb tropical cyclone at peak a few days ago.

glad you posted it. joe bastardi puts alot of weight on the euro.

[BigB0882]

The EURO has been absolutely useless for genesis this year. I don't understand why so many people keep saying they will believe it when the EURO shows it. That wont happen until the storm has already developed and by then how can the EURO possibly be wrong? No wonder people have such a bias towards the EURO. lol

[wxman57]

Nothing on the 12Z Euro. I'm looking at it in high-res with 3-hr time increments.

[ninel conde]

The EURO has been absolutely useless for genesis this year. I don't understand why so many people keep saying they will believe it when the EURO shows it. That wont happen until the storm has already developed and by then how can the EURO possibly be wrong? No wonder people have such a bias towards the EURO. lol

maybe it just doesnt pick up really weak systems? JB may be looking for more, not sure.

[ROCK]

Nothing on the 12Z Euro. I'm looking at it in high-res with 3-hr time increments.

I think the EURO needs to be un-graded this year. I like the old EURO from last year.

[ninel conde]

Nothing on the 12Z Euro. I'm looking at it in high-res with 3-hr time increments.

going out to the 22nd?

[cycloneye]

Does anyone have stats of verification of the models to see how GFS/Euro compare in 2013?

[NDG]

Why consider the ECMWF when so far this season it has had a bad record in the Atlantic when it comes to tropical development.
It missed the development of Barry, Chantal and Dorian, by at least some degree.

The 12z Euro does show a strong vorticity developing east of Nicaragua but it shows it to move inland into C.A./extreme southern MX eventually.
This is exactly what it did with Barry.

[wxman57]

Note that the Euro also failed to predict the development of supertyhoon Utor in the West Pac.

[NDG]

Thanks, I had no idea it also failed with that system in the WPAC.

[Macrocane]

And the Euro has failed with some systems in teh EPAC too.

We have GFS, CMC, NAVGEM and FIM on board.

[Kingarabian]

But you know the ECMWF has such a great track record... I hate going against it.

[wxman57]

But you know the ECMWF has such a great track record... I hate going against it.

That track record pertains to developed TCs, not predicting development.

[Jam151]

Euro hasnt exactly had much to "miss" in the Atlantic this year. The four named storms haven't exactly been powerhouses. In contrast, why not bring up the bogus storms the GFS and CMC have developed? For instance, GFS had a bogus TC/cane in the central Atlantic before Dorian. At least we have one conservative model.

[Alyono]

EC is not a conservative model, it is worth less than the paper its output is printed on

[Steve H.]

That's a bold statement. I like of the ECMWF attributes. I think it's an excellent tool!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Steve]

Ecmwf has its validities. As rock and others have said over and over, it is dismal with genesis. Even it's ppv high res models never sniff anything out. It used to be generally more valid for tracks than the MRF/GFS because those had a bias for looking for exits into the temperate zones at 40, 50, 60, etc west and were always wrong. Because the European had a western bias for storms existing, people fell in love with it. It can track existing cyclones, When it recognizes them, but otherwise is worthless for the tropics when there is only potential.