WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Up to 30 knots!

02W TWO 150207 1200 10.8N 157.4E WPAC 30 1000

[euro6208]

JTWC track bending more to the west with probabilities closer to the Marianas...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071119Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE HAS BEEN A CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGE. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. SEE PARA 3.C FOR DETAILS.
B. TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SLOW AND/OR POSSIBLE QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS TD 02W REMAINS IN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. AFTER TAU 48, THE
STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD AND EXTEND WESTWARD
DOMINATING THE STEERING PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING TREND. AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS HAVE
SLIGHTLY COME TOGETHER, BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIFURCATION. FOR THIS
REASON, THE TRACK IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS MODIFIED AND
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, JTWC
CONTINUES TO FAVOR RECURVING SCENARIO POSITIONING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY
WEST OF GFS SOLUTION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE
STEERING STR, THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
LOW.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Not looking bad.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070943
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022015
800 PM CHST SAT FEB 7 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W NEWLY FORMED NORTH OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 157.5E
ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 885 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.5 EAST. 02W
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. 02W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH MONDAY...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME
SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM CHST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 071541
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022015
200 AM CHST SUN FEB 8 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 157.5E
ABOUT 295 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.5 EAST.
MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
02W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN RECURVE SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING 02W TO A CLOSEST APPROACH
OF ABOUT 420 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH MONDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 071610
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
210 AM CHST SUN FEB 8 2015

GUZ001>004-080600-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
210 AM CHST SUN FEB 8 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE MARIANAS...

AT 100 AM CHST THIS MORNING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 157.5 DEGREES EAST...ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST OF GUAM AND 840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. 02W IS EXPECTED
TO TURN SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY AND MONDAY...THEN RECURVE
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK
WOULD BRING 02W TO A CLOSEST APPROACH OF ABOUT 420 MILES EAST OF
SAIPAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

WHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W IS LIKELY TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE
MARIANAS...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. BECAUSE OF THIS...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD
STAY INFORMED ON THE PROGRESS OF 02W BY FOLLOWING THE LATEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVIVE ON GUAM. THESE ADVISORIES AND ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS ARE POSTED
ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/CYCLONE.PHP (ALL
LOWER CASE).

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS HIGOS.

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 7 February 2015
<Analyses at 07/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°25'(11.4°)
E157°25'(157.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°05'(12.1°)
E156°30'(156.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E154°50'(154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35'(13.6°)
E152°55'(152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC warning by JTWC. A bend to the west at the longer range.

[jaguarjace]

appearance is good this morning.

[cycloneye]

Good organization on latest microwave.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Higos looks quite impressive and organized compared to Mekkhala at this phase

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From spiral:

"Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 896.4 hPa"

WOAH!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Gaining less latitude and may start moving west

02W HIGOS 150208 0000 12.1N 157.4E WPAC 40 993

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Stronger forecast for JMA

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 8 February 2015

<Analyses at 08/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°05'(12.1°)
E157°25'(157.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N280km(150NM)
S220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E156°40'(156.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°)
E155°10'(155.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 11/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E153°50'(153.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Meanwhile the JTWC
WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 157.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 157.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.8N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.3N 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.0N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.8N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.1N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.1N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 157.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072107Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CURVED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONCURRING FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO
45 KNOTS. TS HIGOS REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THOUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36 WHEN THE STORM WILL
REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, TS 02W WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS WHICH CAN BE
SEEN IN THE TRANSVERSE BANDING NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ON THE MSI
LOOP.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMNANTS WILL
DRIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS IT DISSIPATES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT MULTIPLE SCENARIOS. ECMWF, EGRR, AND JGSM REMAIN
CONSOLIDATED WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.
GFS AND AEMN STILL RECURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE NAVGEM
AND GFDN REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, THEY HAVE SHIFTED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUPING. THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE MIDDLE GROUPING. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

JTWC dvorak in at 3.0 while KNES upps to 3.5!

TPPN10 PGTW 080005

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS)

B. 07/2332Z

C. 11.90N

D. 157.42E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET YIELDS A 2.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

TXPQ23 KNES 072129
TCSWNP

A. 02W (HIGOS)

B. 07/2032Z

C. 12.1N

D. 157.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/TMI

H. REMARKS...HIGOS HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY WITH COLD TOPPED CONVECTION
EXPANDING AND NOW CONSOLIDATING AND TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO LOW LEVEL
CENTER. OF NOTE IS THE CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH IS
GIVING THE APPEARANCE OF A NASCENT EYE. 7 TENTHS BANDING (WITH .5 ADDED
FOR W BAND) GIVES DT=3.5. MET=3.0 BASED ON 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/1546Z 11.2N 157.7E AMSU
07/1615Z 11.4N 157.7E TMI


...RUMINSKI

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Warm spot over the LLC.

Hints of an eye?

[euro6208]

This looks alot stronger than 40 knots...I think JTWC will increase the intensity to 50 knots as an average between the dvorak numbers

ADT RAW at 3.6...