Global model runs discussion

[sunnyday]

Thanks for the info. I'm not at all surprised that you said it will dissipate. That seems to be the way they go so far.

[Hammy]

the GFS only develops anything after the resolution truncation

Would not read too much into it

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the resolution drop following 192 hours? That's when it goes to every 12 hours from three anyway. Development is being shown at 165 hours with 993mb at 183 hours, during which the plots are still three hourly. I still say there has been pretty good consistency overall with the exception of a few runs, in showing something on the 30th or 31st, and as the date gets closer the GFS has not backed off at all, and in fact seems to have slowly moved up both the time frame and intensity overall. The Euro also seems to show some hints of activity in the MDR which it has not done in quite some time.

[Alyono]

the GFS only develops anything after the resolution truncation

Would not read too much into it

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the resolution drop following 192 hours? That's when it goes to every 12 hours from three anyway. Development is being shown at 165 hours with 993mb at 183 hours, during which the plots are still three hourly. I still say there has been pretty good consistency overall with the exception of a few runs, in showing something on the 30th or 31st, and as the date gets closer the GFS has not backed off at all, and in fact seems to have slowly moved up both the time frame and intensity overall. The Euro also seems to show some hints of activity in the MDR which it has not done in quite some time.

thought the development occurred just after truncation at 192h

maybe I misread it

[WeatherEmperor]

maybe so Ricky but I know an uptick when I see one...GFS be damned...we have all seen lulls before but what gets me is just because the GFS doesnt see anything doesnt mean a hill of beans. It never saw Felix or Dean...and when it finally did see them they were 1010MB lows....

Thats a good point. Something will develop. Its only a matter of time. The next couple of days or so will be huge in terms of model development

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[tolakram]

18z GFS showing a storm near Cape Verde at 192 hours (7 days).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082318&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Also note the low pressure in the MDR.

[HURAKAN]

GFS always has something 7+ days out .. it's becoming an expert at that!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I can see it all now, when one of these extended range storms finally decides to develop. " I told all of you the season was about to pick up"

And Steve I agree with what you said about all the troughs and fronts affecting the gulf. The gulf this year just doesn't seem to be the place to look for development.

[caneman]

Well, since the Euro isn't good at genesis and CMC and NAM devlop plenty of phantom storms. I would say the GFS is most reliable at genesis.

[Steve]

Hey mike. I actually think the gulf and SE us coast will see activity (including possibly multiple hits in both general areas). I guess I wasn't clear, but I was factoring in that those troughs were working similarly in getting some of the warmer air toward the northern atlantic. That's apparently a primary function of tropical systems. To stay on topic, 18z GFS keeps the low around the mouth of the river at 500mb for a few days while vorticity at 850 moves toward tx. Seems like a shot at a bunch of rain on the east side, but no models really show all that much. But I'm thinking the big surge coming out the west Caribbean will at least add some more juice to whatever otherwise is in the gild this weekend. Word.

[Hammy]

latest GFS has the Aug 31 wave turning NW before exiting and coming off in Morocco.

[Yellow Evan]

latest GFS has the Aug 31 wave turning NW before exiting and coming off in Morocco.

Hilarious.

[Hurricaneman]

latest GFS has the Aug 31 wave turning NW before exiting and coming off in Morocco.

I will bet the farm that that wave is not in any way going to emerge off of Africa there, its a bias of the GFS model

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[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS run also has a wave coming off of Africa lower in latitude starting at around 300hrs. Becomes a full blown hurricane by 384hrs.

@ 312hrs.



@ 336hrs.



@ 384hrs.

[Fego]

After seeing the 00 run, seems to me that the GFS is just responding to the atmospherics conditions that prevail in the Atlantic. If the MDR is full of dry air and easterly shear, then the GFS will not develop those waves or lows. Though, you must admit that is unusual to see a bunch of runs showing below the normal activity in the second week of september.

[cycloneye]

The 00z ECMWF has this small TD NE of Leewards. With the MJO arriving at the Atlantic basin,I would expect more developments from the models than what they are showing.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of activity in the 06z GFS on long range entertainment. More consistency is needed in next runs.

[ninel conde]

After seeing the 00 run, seems to me that the GFS is just responding to the atmospherics conditions that prevail in the Atlantic. If the MDR is full of dry air and easterly shear, then the GFS will not develop those waves or lows. Though, you must admit that is unusual to see a bunch of runs showing below the normal activity in the second week of september.

air isnt moistening up on the models.

[ninel conde]

The 00z ECMWF has this small TD NE of Leewards. With the MJO arriving at the Atlantic basin,I would expect more developments from the models than what they are showing.

not too impressive for after labor day weekend. looks pretty certain now there will be no labor day canes anywhere. the models arent showing anything close.
it might continue moving west if its actually still there later today. as far as the GFS out to 372 that was posted i would be expecting it to be showing several well developed canes on sept 08. lets see if the models start to see the positive MJO and get more bullish.

[tolakram]

The 6z gfs is showing something approaching the SE caribbean in 172 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013082406&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ronjon]

We have to remember that these model predictions out past a week are meaningless. In general, all these models are poor at genesis. The fact that the GFS alternately predicts 4 storms one run and nothing the next run is not surprising at long range. The fact that it is predicting something with some runs combined with basic climatology should be enough to tell everyone things will ramp up soon.