Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

This season has the potential to be an epic fail with regards to predictions...Maybe 1-2 hurricanes in the global models through mid September...No indication at all that high pressure in place to allow more landfalls...Globals have been good this season not showing significant development and it's hard to go against them now...

there are plenty indications...looks at the globals... it doesnt matter if there is an EC trof if a TW is slipping in under it and developing after it....that puts the islands and GOM at risk. If you are just basing your opinion off the GFS runs well that is setting your own self up for failure....anything after 168hr on the GFS is worthless....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Or any model for that matter

[NDG]

True that troughiness in the eastern US would recurve any storms in early September but as we head into the peak of the season and beyond the NCEP ensemble forecast show building ridging once again in the Atlantic.

[alienstorm]

there may be nothing but home grown this season.

[hurricaneCW]

there may be nothing but home grown this season.

That's far more dangerous than a storm that develops far to the east. Just look at how quickly Fernand was coming together under the right conditions in such a small confined area.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the 12zGFS develops something in the BOC at 90hrs and stalls it there through 204hrs moving inland as possibly another Fernand type system

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[Hammy]

So the GFS loses the one system it has consistently shown for weeks, just days before its supposed to develop. I'm officially giving up on the models this year. See you all next year on this topic unless things change.

[Dean4Storms]

GGEM is still with the systems in the MDR. I don't think the models will have a full grasp until 5 days in and the MJO expected to begin arriving I suspect we'll have some sudden developers that the models either were on/off with or were clueless altogether.

[tolakram]

GGEM is still with the systems in the MDR. I don't think the models will have a full grasp until 5 days in and the MJO expected to begin arriving I suspect we'll have some sudden developers that the models either were on/off with or were clueless altogether.

I agree. The MJO was always forecast to hit next week and we're not really in range for reliable modeling yet. Just like a model flipping from dev to no dev, it can flip the other way as well. The Euro is still showing vorticity and lower pressure, something it had not shown for weeks on end.

[ROCK]

6Z FIM9- PR about to get smacked....at 168hr

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM

[ninel conde]

True that troughiness in the eastern US would recurve any storms in early September but as we head into the peak of the season and beyond the NCEP ensemble forecast show building ridging once again in the Atlantic.

ive seen that a few times this season but it never seems to pan out. alot of preseason forecasts saying that the east coast was likely to be hit were based on this and i recall people saying because of the very warm water in the north atlantic a ridge would have to dominate the nw atlantic. to be fair, back in june and early july there were 2 times where the bermuda high built in and we had a perfect set up for hits. right now the nw flow is dominating the east coast and western atlantic and i just saw on TWC'S 7 day forecast where we have yet another front coming monday while dallas will hit 99. that tells me the trof/ridge/trof pattern hasnt changed.

[tolakram]

What never seems to pan out?

12Z euro shows development off of Africa in 72 hours, then washes out the system.

Pouch 25 vorticity now weaker and makes it to the Bahamas.





http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[tolakram]

While I'm here, let me save a few images for the instability. Models showing weak or no development, yet instability is now above normal.

[Bocadude85]

True that troughiness in the eastern US would recurve any storms in early September but as we head into the peak of the season and beyond the NCEP ensemble forecast show building ridging once again in the Atlantic.

ive seen that a few times this season but it never seems to pan out. alot of preseason forecasts saying that the east coast was likely to be hit were based on this and i recall people saying because of the very warm water in the north atlantic a ridge would have to dominate the nw atlantic. to be fair, back in june and early july there were 2 times where the bermuda high built in and we had a perfect set up for hits. right now the nw flow is dominating the east coast and western atlantic and i just saw on TWC'S 7 day forecast where we have yet another front coming monday while dallas will hit 99. that tells me the trof/ridge/trof pattern hasnt changed.

I really do not understand why you bother to post when you never have anything to back up your claims.

[HURRICANELONNY]

True that troughiness in the eastern US would recurve any storms in early September but as we head into the peak of the season and beyond the NCEP ensemble forecast show building ridging once again in the Atlantic.

ive seen that a few times this season but it never seems to pan out. alot of preseason forecasts saying that the east coast was likely to be hit were based on this and i recall people saying because of the very warm water in the north atlantic a ridge would have to dominate the nw atlantic. to be fair, back in june and early july there were 2 times where the bermuda high built in and we had a perfect set up for hits. right now the nw flow is dominating the east coast and western atlantic and i just saw on TWC'S 7 day forecast where we have yet another front coming monday while dallas will hit 99. that tells me the trof/ridge/trof pattern hasnt changed.

I really do not understand why you bother to post when you never have anything to back up your claims.

Amen

[supercane4867]

For entertainment

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM---has a carib storm right past the islands at 144hr

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

00Z NAM---same as the NAV but a little faster.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[boca]

I'm watching the models like everyone else and I got caught up in the preseason hype and I'm starting to wonder if this season will take off or bust myself.If this was a El Niño year at least I would know it was going to be quiet but it's hard to predict a colder Indian Ocean or dry air from the Azores High being too far south, too many variables go into a season.

[Alyono]

While I'm here, let me save a few images for the instability. Models showing weak or no development, yet instability is now above normal.

the moving average is still well below average. We need a few more data points to determine for sure we have above average instability and that this is not a sudden spike

[Alyono]

for entertainment purposes only

The GFS does have a significant TC in the western Gulf at about day 14