Global model runs discussion

[tolakram]

Latest saved images of MJO forecasts. Both GFS and the Euro is showing the eastward propagation beginning today.

[otowntiger]

quite possible, no threats to the western half of the basin through mid September

that would be great! Lets see if we can get through the rest of the season with the same results.

[hurricanetrack]

It's really nice to see such a huge discrepancy between the GFS and the Euro. Really helps to build the faith in either model. Which one is right? Are they both wrong? What the heck is going on out there? Just maddening.

[tolakram]

UK has something on day 4 and 5. No clue if this is related to one of the pouches or not.



http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[NDG]

It's really nice to see such a huge discrepancy between the GFS and the Euro. Really helps to build the faith in either model. Which one is right? Are they both wrong? What the heck is going on out there? Just maddening.

The Euro has been handling the MJO "better" than the GFS for the past several months.

[NDG]

UK has something on day 4 and 5. No clue if this is related to one of the pouches or not.

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/4973/ejhh.png

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

South of Hispniola is what you are referring to? If so that would be pouch 25L

[caneman]

It's really nice to see such a huge discrepancy between the GFS and the Euro. Really helps to build the faith in either model. Which one is right? Are they both wrong? What the heck is going on out there? Just maddening.

The Euro has been handling the MJO "better" than the GFS for the past several months.

Not sure that any model is handling anything well. Or, it could be that they are all doing well in not showing squat because conditions just haven't been right. A maddening season. One expert will tell you it's because of SAL, another will say overall pressures aren't low enough, another will state wind shear has been too high. The forecast for MJO has been off and further will that really make a difference with the other negative influences. Will the real answer please stand up. No one has forecast this season well even in the short term. I don't think one expert could tell you right now how the rest of the season will play out and do so with a straight face. Just sayin'.

[USTropics]

Mother Nature: Just when you think you have her all figured out, she leaves you without words (and storms)

[hurricanetrack]

Caneman for the win! Well said. So we will just sit back and watch....and wait....

[SouthFloridian92]

Now I want to see if we can go the whole season without a hurricane or a major hurricane. It'd be some kind of a record!

[Hammy]

Now I want to see if we can go the whole season without a hurricane or a major hurricane. It'd be some kind of a record!

in the satellite era it has actually happened in 1968, 1972, 1986, and 1994 (though its debatable as Florence may have been a Cat 3)

[otowntiger]

Now I want to see if we can go the whole season without a hurricane or a major hurricane. It'd be some kind of a record!

I'm with you on that. Might as well root for an historically quiet season at this point. It would be both boring and fascinating in a way. I love it when the experts are left shrugging their shoulders. Has there ever been a season without a hurricane in the Atlantic basin?

[Cyclenall]

Now I want to see if we can go the whole season without a hurricane or a major hurricane. It'd be some kind of a record!

in the satellite era it has actually happened in 1968, 1972, 1986, and 1994 (though its debatable as Florence may have been a Cat 3)

I think they were more interested in a satellite era non-hurricane season (no hurricanes period).

Now I want to see if we can go the whole season without a hurricane or a major hurricane. It'd be some kind of a record!

I'm with you on that. Might as well root for an historically quiet season at this point. It would be both boring and fascinating in a way. I love it when the experts are left shrugging their shoulders. Has there ever been a season without a hurricane in the Atlantic basin?

I was going to quote your 2nd last post and say the exact thing.

You can tell everyone has lost faith when the CMC is showing a CAT3/4 near Florida at 180 hours and no one brings it up . I agree, I don't see it playing out.

[Alyono]

16 day GFS shows 2 more weeks of quiet activity. Only 1 system develops and that is on day 16

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

not a thing and so far it doesnt show the pattern change for after sept 9.

[RL3AO]

16 day GFS shows 2 more weeks of quiet activity. Only 1 system develops and that is on day 16

Starting to become a pattern isn't it?

[pgoss11]

I think this season when all is said and done will be the topic of research for why the season really never materialized as forecasted. I'm not saying there won't be some activity later in the season, but this I believe is a surprise to even the most respected forecasters. It goes to show, even as far advanced as we have become with the science of forecasting, there are so many variables that can't be foreseen. Another reason why I love this hobby!!

[Alyono]

16 day GFS shows 2 more weeks of quiet activity. Only 1 system develops and that is on day 16

Starting to become a pattern isn't it?

should be telling us something... like watch football, lol

Now looking like a good chance that I will be owing lunch as I took the bet of 7 or more storms

[ROCK]

The GFS has been horrible at cyclone genesis this year. That is a fact. One run it has something the next it doesnt so basing anything off a 16 days run is foolish...

[CrazyC83]

There's a wall of shear right off Cape Verde stuck around 15-21N latitude that extends west-southwest all the way to the Caribbean Sea at about 12N. Split jet stream pattern? Since shear isn't a problem at all north of it for the most part, but tropical waves can't get up there. It's like the Atlantic is divided...