Global model runs discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Horrible Humberto, I have a bad feeling about this name.

[TheStormExpert]

Horrible Humberto, I have a bad feeling about this name.

Humberto could end up being 99L in the BoC.

[ninel conde]

then he would be 6 hour humberto.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

then he would be 6 hour humberto.

lmoa, indeed

[Bocadude85]

Horrible Humberto, I have a bad feeling about this name.

Humberto could end up being 99L in the BoC.

Then that would mean the wave forecast to develop off Africa would be Ingrid and we all know how the I storms usually turn out. I am thinking this is the storm that will become our first hurricane of the season.

[tolakram]

Latest MJO Plot.

[otowntiger]

EURO blowing up something in the MDR....big sucker at 216hrs...around 30W 15N

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013090412&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

. Interesting use of terminology there! We are all "big suckers" if we give much credence to 216 hour models, lol!

[Hammy]

The models have consistently blown up big storms after the 192 hour point, its just more wishful thinking on the models parts as even they have become bored with the lack of activity.

[sunnyday]

9/6/13==another boring day in the tropics. Just for fun and opinions only, who believes there is a good chance that there will not be a hurricane this season?

[ROCK]

CMC has a TS threatening PR again at 180Hr....not out of the realm of possibilities as the ridge is building in for awhile....this might make it across and slip under the approaching shortwave....

[Hammy]

9/6/13==another boring day in the tropics. Just for fun and opinions only, who believes there is a good chance that there will not be a hurricane this season?

I think at this point I wont say no hurricanes but I'll say Oct 10 for the first and probably only one.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I would take the cmc showing back to back storms hitting LA again just for the pure entertainment of it right now.

My memory is not that great these days but I cannot remember the last time the gulf was this quiet. Not even tropical waves making their way across bringing us increased chances of rain.

[tolakram]

9/6/13==another boring day in the tropics. Just for fun and opinions only, who believes there is a good chance that there will not be a hurricane this season?

There are other threads for this conversation. Let's leave it out of here please. We've got a poll going, be sure to enter it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115623&hilit=

[Hurricaneman]

The last few runs of the GFS have shown a tropical system from the monsoon trough in the Caribbean at around 300hrs. As much as this is after truncation this is the area I'm highlighting for trouble forming late September through early November due to this being the climatological area of genesis in that period

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CourierPR]

The last few runs of the GFS have shown a tropical system from the monsoon trough in the Caribbean at around 300hrs. As much as this is after truncation this is the area I'm highlighting for trouble forming late September through early November due to this being the climatological area of genesis in that period

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Joe Bastardi mentioned future development in the Caribbean in a tweet yesterday. It is getting to that time of the season when we should look there for cyclogenesis.

[ROCK]

the BOC has to be watched closely, I think. The EURO is showing low pressures in the coming week...... I have a errie feeling of a fast developing storm ala Alicia moving up into Texas from this area. Yes I am thinking our first major in the GOM this year.


this is just my opinion not backed by any known science. Please refer to the NHC for better opinions.

[PTrackerLA]

I've been noticing the trends in the Euro and GFS...we may see something form in the next couple of weeks in this area. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on it. Would only take one big gulf storm to make this a bad season.

[blp]

GFS starting to show W.Carribean development late in the forecast. It has been showing lowering pressures for a few runs.

[SFLcane]

Makes sense to me BLP as the only favorable conditions in the BOC slowly move into the caribbean in time. Rest of basin has been hostile

[perk]

the BOC has to be watched closely, I think. The EURO is showing low pressures in the coming week...... I have a errie feeling of a fast developing storm ala Alicia moving up into Texas from this area. Yes I am thinking our first major in the GOM this year.


this is just my opinion not backed by any known science. Please refer to the NHC for better opinions.

Only if that ridge that's been parked over us darn near the entire summer moves.