Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

Long-range CFS shows a very active period for the end of August through first three weeks of September:

Long Range CFS

[cycloneye]

Long-range CFS shows a very active period for the end of August through first three weeks of September:

Long Range CFS

To let you know that I made the link to the long range CFS as a hyperlink to not have it very long.

[chaser1]

Looking at the varying maps (500 mb level), it appeared to me that the Euro & GFS both seemed to indicate fairly strong mid level ridging over the W. U.S. and east of Florida. There are varying details of course such as how far south the GFS indicated troughing along the U.S. East coast, contrary to the Euro, but overall 592 heights over the W. Atlantic seemed fairly prevalent. Oddly, the CMC (as mentioned, now picking up increased Atlantic tropical activity) 500mb run looked quite different with the primary W. Atlantic high displaced much further north and east.

[somethingfunny]

I would not worry about the upper air setup at 384 hours out. If that storm actually exists at that point (I see little reason why something wouldn't be brewing by then) it could be literally anywhere in the basin. Even taking the run verbatim though I can't imagine a storm hitting the US from that location no matter how strong the ridge might appear to be.

[ninel conde]

Long-range CFS shows a very active period for the end of August through first three weeks of September:

Long Range CFS

all i saw was a few very weak lows.

[WPBWeather]

Long-range CFS shows a very active period for the end of August through first three weeks of September:

Long Range CFS

all i saw was a few very weak lows.

Then you looked at the wrong page.

[Hurricaneman]

Long-range CFS shows a very active period for the end of August through first three weeks of September:

Long Range CFS

all i saw was a few very weak lows.

the resolution in that model mean that those weak lows are probably a lot stronger than being modeled and with a few hurricanes due to that

[ConvergenceZone]

Long-range CFS shows a very active period for the end of August through first three weeks of September:

Long Range CFS

It BETTER be active for those three weeks, if not, say goodbye to hurricane season until 2015..............

[cycloneye]

For being in the peak weeks of the season (August 28) to have only a weak TD on the GFS map is not a good sign for the North Atlantic to have plenty of activity.

[CFLHurricane]

For being in the peak weeks of the season (August 28) to have only a weak TD on the GFS map is not a good sign for the North Atlantic to have plenty of activity.

Yeah if we don't get a couple more storms before the end of August i think it will be safe to declare this season dead.

[ninel conde]

For being in the peak weeks of the season (August 28) to have only a weak TD on the GFS map is not a good sign for the North Atlantic to have plenty of activity.

http://oi57.tinypic.com/dqm3br.jpg

i would be surprised if any type of circulation could form in these awful conditions. i think things just get worse from here through oct. i dont know what jb is looking at to say the tropics will get active, except climatology.

[Alyono]

you say the same exact thing every day, ninel, and without any meteorological backing

[gatorcane]

UKMET is upgraded

If the upgrade of UKMET works good,then GFS and ECMWF may have good company as a third altrernative to look at when modeling of Tropical Cyclones is concerned.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s ... i_v2.0.pdf

Where can we find a good link to the upgraded UMKET model runs for the Atlantic basin like we have for the other global models? The UKMET on the PENN state EWALL site only goes out to 24 hours (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html).

[Alyono]

I believe you have to fork over $$ for the full UKMET now

[WPBWeather]

you say the same exact thing every day, ninel, and without any meteorological backing

I agree. And with all us other NON Pro Mets, means we might be right 50% of the time overall.

[South Texas Storms]

UKMET is upgraded

If the upgrade of UKMET works good,then GFS and ECMWF may have good company as a third altrernative to look at when modeling of Tropical Cyclones is concerned.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s ... i_v2.0.pdf

Where can we find a good link to the upgraded UMKET model runs for the Atlantic basin like we have for the other global models? The UKMET on the PENN state EWALL site only goes out to 24 hours (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html).

Here's a couple of good UKMET model sites that I like to use:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Biggest things I took from the long range CFS run were a lot of continued troughing off the east coast and absolutely nothing going homebrew wise.

[blp]

UKMET is upgraded

If the upgrade of UKMET works good,then GFS and ECMWF may have good company as a third altrernative to look at when modeling of Tropical Cyclones is concerned.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s ... i_v2.0.pdf

Where can we find a good link to the upgraded UMKET model runs for the Atlantic basin like we have for the other global models? The UKMET on the PENN state EWALL site only goes out to 24 hours (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html).

Here's a couple of good UKMET model sites that I like to use:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/



http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

Thank you for posting that. At least it has 5 day forecast which is great.

[Alyono]

Models indicating a likely Hawaii threat next Monday and Tuesday

[TheStormExpert]

Models indicating a likely Hawaii threat next Monday and Tuesday

From Invest 99E?