Global model runs discussion

[Alyono]

the EC is going all in on the EPAC. Has very low Gulf development probabilities.

My BS flag has been raised due to the low pressures already in the NW Caribbean and Gulf

[tropicwatch]

On top of that you can see the area of disturbed weather that was in the SW Caribbean is moving into the NW Caribbean.

[blp]

When was the last time you saw this? I know it is long range, but it has been a while:

[tolakram]

Well, one of the reasons I like this thread to have saved images is so we can look back.

This is a fun page to start on in this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=6280

[ninel conde]

When was the last time you saw this? I know it is long range, but it has been a while:

http://oi62.tinypic.com/rig4le.jpg

JB says those need not be worried about for now.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 1h

Forget the African waves cant get to US for 10 days. Innocuous area T storms off Fla on NC coast in 5 days, may be much more important

[WPBWeather]

When was the last time you saw this? I know it is long range, but it has been a while:

http://oi62.tinypic.com/rig4le.jpg

JB says those need not be worried about for now.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 1h

Forget the African waves cant get to US for 10 days. Innocuous area T storms off Fla on NC coast in 5 days, may be much more important

Is that the extent of your support?

[crownweather]

With Hurricane Norbert in the Eastern Pacific and the possibility of mischief off of the US East Coast this weekend, this satellite picture from September 9th, 1984 that just came across my Twitter timeline is interesting. Shows a developing storm, which is Diana, off of the US Southeast coast and a east Pacific hurricane near the Baja.

FYI, Diana is the first hurricane that I ever tracked (I was 10 yrs old) and remember how it loop-de-looped off of the Carolina coast.

[Hammy]

When was the last time you saw this? I know it is long range, but it has been a while:

http://oi62.tinypic.com/rig4le.jpg

Saw it several times last year, none of which actually happened...

[somethingfunny]

Well, one of the reasons I like this thread to have saved images is so we can look back.

This is a fun page to start on in this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=6280

That's from 5 days ago!

The Canadian and Euro don't do much with the Cape Verde storm nor with the Caribbean - they both migrate the low pressure across Central America and form something close to land on the EPAC side. The GFS forms the EPAC system as a twin system, which is pretty common this time of year so climatology says we should watch out for some homebrews.

All of the interesting stuff on the GFS happens after the resolution drops 8 days from now - it's basically a fuzzy dreamworld at that resolution, it might as well be another planet's forecast. We've got to keep watching it.

The post-truncation (8 days) GFS depiction of the Cape Verde storm doesn't look right to me for a few reasons.... but I'll keep my mouth shut on that one, it's just wait and see time.

I'm not really sure if the Cape Verde storm is 90L , or it's the wave behind it while 90L provides the Caribbean trough the "oomph" it needs to spit out that pair of twin storms.

[USTropics]

Well, one of the reasons I like this thread to have saved images is so we can look back.

This is a fun page to start on in this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=6280

That's from 5 days ago!

The Canadian and Euro don't do much with the Cape Verde storm nor with the Caribbean - they both migrate the low pressure across Central America and form something close to land on the EPAC side. The GFS forms the EPAC system as a twin system, which is pretty common this time of year so climatology says we should watch out for some homebrews.

All of the interesting stuff on the GFS happens after the resolution drops 8 days from now - it's basically a fuzzy dreamworld at that resolution, it might as well be another planet's forecast. We've got to keep watching it.

The post-truncation (8 days) GFS depiction of the Cape Verde storm doesn't look right to me for a few reasons.... but I'll keep my mouth shut on that one, it's just wait and see time.

That's from 5 days ago...plus another 365

[tolakram]

That's from 5 days ago!

Link goes to Sat Aug 31, 2013 for me.

[somethingfunny]

that explains why Cyclenall's meme didn't look familiar - the arguments being made looked pretty familiar though... and for what it's worth that time period gave us Ingrid and Humberto.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF is showing a couple of Cape Verde systems in the long-range. Not super strong, but the fact it is showing something could indicate September may produce some storms out there.

[Hammy]

Euro seems to be playing GFS's games now, it developed the first wave, as that one got closer it stopped developing it and instead developed the one behind it, now as that time frame gets closer, it's no longer developing it and instead developing a third one behind it, meanwhile development continues to remain at the 7-10 days in the future point.

[blp]

And look at the Ridge it develops in the long range. The models are picking up on more ridging. That is a trend that has stuck out to me recently.

[Ntxw]

And look at the Ridge it develops in the long range. The models are picking up on more ridging. That is a trend that has stuck out to me recently.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/21506h.jpg

That surface anomalous high pressure you see on the ECMWF in the eastern US is actually surface high pressure from the Arctic with a cold air mass. At 500mb it's not true ridging, it's quite zonal with Great lakes trof. There is ridging out in the open Atlantic.

[blp]

And look at the Ridge it develops in the long range. The models are picking up on more ridging. That is a trend that has stuck out to me recently.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/21506h.jpg

That surface anomalous high pressure you see on the ECMWF in the eastern US is actually surface high pressure from the Arctic with a cold air mass. At 500mb it's not true ridging, it's quite zonal with Great lakes trof. There is ridging out in the open Atlantic.

Here is better view I should have not followed the mslp. You are correct it is more zonal. With that setup you still won't get a lot of poleward movement if something were to get close to the CONUS.



Btw: do you have any better Euro graphics for 500mb. I know they are hard to find.

[meriland23]

This is scary. I know it is long range but...GFS and other models are picking up more and more on the system behind 90L..now assuming a major hurricane.

[SFLcane]

Long-range GFS still showing multiple CV storms developing but if its correct the odds of cv storm affecting the US before recurving are low. Semi-permanent trof draped across the southeast.

[Hammy]

I'm personally not buying these long-range runs. The GFS has already forecast a few strong storms this year that never materialized, and neither the Euro or even the develop-every-low-you-see Canadian model show anything more than weak storms at best. More than likely the GFS is back to playing in the Fantasy Hurricane League