Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

When is the ts supposed to his SW FL? Thank you for the info.

Hi sunnyday. There is no system right now on the charts that may hit SW FL at this time. Is one model that shows that but the ECMWF and UKMET models do not and the most important thing is the folks of NHC don't mention anything in the Caribbean but only at the Eastern Pacific side.That means you can go ahead with your daily things that you do without any worry that a Tropical Cyclone will hit your location in the coming days.

[Dean4Storms]

When is the ts supposed to his SW FL? Thank you for the info.

Hi sunnyday. There is no system right now on the charts that may hit SW FL at this time. Is one model that shows that but the ECMWF and UKMET models do not and the most important thing is the folks of NHC don't mention anything in the Caribbean but only at the Eastern Pacific side.That means you can go ahead with your daily things that you do without any worry that a Tropical Cyclone will hit your location in the coming days.

Exactly and the only thing I meant by my earlier post about Florida is IF it develops per the GFS solution. The track toward Florida eventually would make sense with a deepening TC.

[ninel conde]

06z GFS has 2 tropical storms. sw of bermuda and west carib.

[hurricanetrack]

Aren't we looking at around 10% down there now according to this graphic?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... MP_048.gif

I know I am a bit biased, but I find it hard to believe that the GFS is so badly broken that none of what we are seeing, in terms of Caribbean development, is going to happen- at all. That is stunning. We are not talking about 10 days out or 12 days out. I guess at the end of the week, if nothing is happening down there, then it will be obvious LOL.

[crownweather]

Aren't we looking at around 10% down there now according to this graphic?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... MP_048.gif

I know I am a bit biased, but I find it hard to believe that the GFS is so badly broken that none of what we are seeing, in terms of Caribbean development, is going to happen- at all. That is stunning. We are not talking about 10 days out or 12 days out. I guess at the end of the week, if nothing is happening down there, then it will be obvious LOL.

I know, I've been thinking the same thing over the last day or so. This might just end up being the blind squirrel finding the nut with this. The consistency of both the timing of the development and the timing of the track has been stunning with no back tracking in time from the GFS.

Also, check out the 240 hour European model of the strong low pressure system near Phily. Looks like to me this storm forms from the interaction of low pressure near Bermuda, a frontal boundary over the eastern US and an injection of energy from the Caribbean. Interesting.

[blp]

Aren't we looking at around 10% down there now according to this graphic?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... MP_048.gif

I know I am a bit biased, but I find it hard to believe that the GFS is so badly broken that none of what we are seeing, in terms of Caribbean development, is going to happen- at all. That is stunning. We are not talking about 10 days out or 12 days out. I guess at the end of the week, if nothing is happening down there, then it will be obvious LOL.

I know, I've been thinking the same thing over the last day or so. This might just end up being the blind squirrel finding the nut with this. The consistency of both the timing of the development and the timing of the track has been stunning with no back tracking in time from the GFS.

Also, check out the 240 hour European model of the strong low pressure system near Phily. Looks like to me this storm forms from the interaction of low pressure near Bermuda, a frontal boundary over the eastern US and an injection of energy from the Caribbean. Interesting.

Great points by both. It is hard to explain what has happened. Years ago the GFS with this kind of consistency was a sure bet. Now with supposedly more technology advancement we are blinded to waiting for either development to occur or 2-3 days before development in order to believe the models.

[tolakram]

GFS 6Z

96 hours



180 hours


Euro hints at something at 144 hours but it develops an epac low as well. I think this will be EPAC, but we'll have to wait and see.



The Euro ensembles have generally lower pressure on the Atlantic side, but the 24 hour plot is interesting.

[blp]

Well despite the NHC going with the EPAC this graphic indicates otherwise. I don't know which agency produces this.

It seems to be me the NHC should have started on the Atlantic side first even the Euro starts things out there and then moves the low pressure into the EPAC.

[tolakram]

They have flagged the EPAC, which is probably the smart choice. 10% in the 5 day outlook.

[Fego]

Imo, NHC don't want the same dog to bite them again. Just remember when they gave some % to a system that was over Africa. Sorry, I can't recall the invest number. I agree that they are awaiting for the ECM.

[SFLcane]

FIM..

[Alyono]

if you want an Atlantic storm, watch northeast of the Caribbean

[crownweather]

Here's a thought and it is completely off of the cuff -

What if BOTH the GFS and European model guidance are right and yet both are wrong. Let me explain:

Let's say the GFS is over-forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone in the southwest Caribbean and the European model guidance is under-forecasting the area of lower pressure/disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean.

So, instead we see a large area of disturbed weather track northward over the next week reaching the Florida Peninsula in about a week or so, except it waits to develop into a tropical cyclone until it is off of the US Southeast coast which is sort of what the European model is hinting at (combining energies from the frontal boundary, SW Caribbean moisture and low pressure near Bermuda into a robust low near SE Pennsylvania in 10 days). This US Southeast Atlantic coast tropical development would be somewhat similar to what we saw with Arthur from July in that it waited to develop until it was near and north of 30 North Latitude. The difference would be that the energy would be coming from the Caribbean and not from a thunderstorm complex tracking off of the coast of South Carolina and tracking southward like we saw with Arthur.

Now this scenario is just yet another possible scenario by combining the European and GFS models together. It is not a forecast of what will happen but just an observation of looking at all of the guidance over the past several days.

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[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the GFS might be on to something as there seems to be an area of interest at 12N 78W and heres something that Rob{crownweather} mentioned above is that maybe a somewhere in the middle intensity wise between the Euro and the GFS. An interesting week coming

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS... TS Landfall SW FL


FIM... TS Landfall SW FL


06z NAVGEM... TS Landfall In Belize


CMC... Shows Weak Low In SW Caribbean Just N Of Honduras in 180 Hrs

someone wake up sanibel from the summer long slumber on the sw coast

[weatherfanatic]

Crawn weather, I have to agree with you.. Being in NY my eyes are on the Euro now as its showing a 998mb storm around 16th, and in rain estimates it dumps 7-9 inches in eastern PA and stops at 240 but I imagine that rain spreads east. It very well could be that what the GFS was showing actually does nothing until what the Euro does. I am more inclined to believe the Euro but lets see what 12z shows. Euro still has 10+ runs before it gets within the 5 day. Nonetheless it could also be that two systems happen, one for FL and one for midatlantic (which BTW showing a 998mb storm at 240 is concerning being that Euro usually starts off weak, and thats not so weak.)

[weatherfanatic]

OKAY, no more GFS please now a strong hurricane into texas? Man this thing just is not right.

[Alyono]

Alright Model Uccelleni!

This run may be even more absurd than Uccelleni's directive that you cannot use wind data to determine wind speed

[ronjon]

OKAY, no more GFS please now a strong hurricane into texas? Man this thing just is not right.

Don't get focused on actual LF predictions 10 days out - look to see if its consistent on the timing of genesis and track the next 3-5 days. Climatology alone tells you the chance of a texas LF in October is extremely low.

[gatorcane]

Hmmm 12Z GEM is now aligning more with the GFS out through 114 hours so far with a tropical storm in the SW Caribbean. That may be enough for the NHC to mark the SW Caribbean now in the next outlook as the GFS now has another model on board.