Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

ut oh! GEM is now showing it heading NW and is similar to the GFS model. Model Ucellini may be right on this one folks!

[TheStormExpert]

From S. FL to South/Central Texas in just one run? The GFS is on serious crack! I'd just ignore the model all together until it gets a complete makeover. TC development in the Atlantic side seems highly unlikely IMO at this point. It's sad that the GFS has come to this point.

[gatorcane]

From S. FL to South/Central Texas in just one run? The GFS is on serious crack! I'd just ignore the model all together until it gets a complete makeover. TC development in the Atlantic side seems highly unlikely IMO at this point. It's sad that the GFS has come to this point.

GEM is now showing a similar solution to the GFS, see above post. The long-range is up in the air but GFS and GEM now show development of something in the SW Carib that lifts generally northward or northwestward.

[ronjon]

From S. FL to South/Central Texas in just one run? The GFS is on serious crack! I'd just ignore the model all together until it gets a complete makeover. TC development in the Atlantic side seems highly unlikely IMO at this point. It's sad that the GFS has come to this point.

Oh come now - not even the mighty Euro can predict TC tracks out 10 days - this criticism is ridiculous at the 10 day timeframe. For the 16th run in a row, the GFS predicts genesis and a western caribbean system moving into the GOM over the next week. There is an area of disturbed weather in the SW caribbean as we speak. We'll know if the GFS is out to lunch if nothing forms in 3-4 days.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post images of the Euro when it becomes available?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[TheStormExpert]

From S. FL to South/Central Texas in just one run? The GFS is on serious crack! I'd just ignore the model all together until it gets a complete makeover. TC development in the Atlantic side seems highly unlikely IMO at this point. It's sad that the GFS has come to this point.

Oh come now - not even the mighty Euro can predict TC tracks out 10 days - this criticism is ridiculous at the 10 day timeframe. For the 16th run in a row, the GFS predicts genesis and a western caribbean system moving into the GOM over the next week. There is an area of disturbed weather in the SW caribbean as we speak. We'll know if the GFS is out to lunch if nothing forms in 3-4 days.

I know what you mean, I just don't understand how anything could move due N or NW in the gulf in October especially when troughiness has been the normal for the past 6 seasons and climatology speaking a FL hit from something like this is far more favored in October than anything else like a Texas hit especially, makes very little sense.

[hurricanetrack]

Funny, had the GFS been the one (model) to show what Sandy eventually did, 8 days out mind you, then people would have said it was on crack, lost its mind, etc etc. But for some reason since the Euro showed it instead, and the GFS was more typical with a track northeast and out to sea, people bought the Euro - which turned out to be right. How crazy was THAT though? A hurricane coming up from the Caribbean at the end of October to hit New Jersey????

Yeah, and that was only two short years ago, not in 1829 or some such mess.

[PTrackerLA]

It's funny how every run of the GFS is now discounted when earlier this season the mantra was the Euro cannot be used to TC Genesis etc. Not saying I'm buying the solution yet but with the CMC and FIM showing similar solutions it's starting to raise an eyebrow. I too, laughed as the Sandy predictions 8-10 days out. Gulf Coast stay alert next 2 weeks!

[crownweather]

I think what we are seeing on this board and even in the updates I write for my website is that we have ALL been burned badly by the GFS model many times this season that it is so hard to believe that this will happen. It really is the model boy who cried hurricane way too many times.

[emeraldislenc]

All of the comments and all the models can be confusing. Would a pro met give us his/her opinion.

[Riptide]

I think what we are seeing on this board and even in the updates I write for my website is that we have ALL been burned badly by the GFS model many times this season that it is so hard to believe that this will happen. It really is the model boy who cried hurricane way too many times.

Euro failed to develop Edouard and that one TS (Dolly?). It's been a 50/50 performance. I prefer the GFS in the short-term, in this case implies developement.

[cycloneye]

Well,once again NHC doesn't bite the noise.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Alyono]

the NHC is likely wrong in this case

the chances are clearly not zero. UNLIKELY, yes. Highly unlikely even.

I'd have given it a 10% chance of occurring

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running.

48H

[tolakram]

From Tropical Tidbits.

[weatherfanatic]

I don't think the GEM being on board with the GFS personally adds much to it. They both do crazy things this year. However it is more than one model with the FIM also and even the 00z Euro a tiny bit. I am more interested in the EC storm near Philly, which honestly I think may be this system and the euro just hasnt picked it up in the carribbean.

[tolakram]

Euro still favors EPAC. Watch the vorticity loop and you can see the jump at 48 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 96 hours at EPAC more strong.

[Alyono]

EPAC is still far more likely. May have chances closer to 50 percent through 5 days in the EPAC compared to 10 in the Atlantic

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 120 hours has the EPAC development but also has a weak broad low east of Nicaragua.