Global model runs discussion

[NDG]

Like I asked a couple of days ago, how many times will you get fooled by the GFS this year before you start ignoring it.
Little by little the GFS is trending towards the Euro of weak development in the EPAC side of C.A.

[LarryWx]

Like I asked a couple of days ago, how many times will you get fooled by the GFS this year before you start ignoring it.
Little by little the GFS is trending towards the Euro of weak development in the EPAC of C.A.

Hopefully, nobody has gone all in on the GFS. However, discussion of it doesn't mean buying it , of course. Plus, it is good to document. It has still had 18 runs in a row with SW Caribbean genesis albeit very weak this time. Could this run end up being its swan song after a big tease? Stay tuned for the next runs!

[floridasun78]

that way go gfs want back off we cannot forecast that many days ahead

[LarryWx]

that way go gfs want back off we cannot forecast that many days ahead

floridasun,
It backed off of its strength of SW Caribbean low, but it still had it. However, is this a sign it is going to give into the Euro soon? Do you have an opinion? Stay tuned!

Wouldn't it be ironic if tonight's Euro were to give in to the GFS lol?

Edit: I hate EDT! I want to go to sleep lol.

[Hurricaneman]

Here is an opinion and not fact

The GFS and Euro both have problems with tropical systems until there is a low or depression to follow as the GFS tends to overblow up everything and gets a lot closer when it has a low to follow and the opposite is true with the Euro as in it does little to nothing until a low or tropical cyclone is developing but thats just an observation I've seen

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

that way go gfs want back off we cannot forecast that many days ahead

floridasun,
It backed off of its strength of SW Caribbean low, but it still had it. However, is this a sign it is going to give into the Euro soon? Do you have an opinion? Stay tuned!

Wouldn't it be ironic if tonight's Euro were to give in to the GFS lol?

Edit: I hate EDT! I want to go to sleep lol.

My personal opinon only, is that the Euro isn't going to cave to the GFS. The GFS is persistently trying to develop something in a not so favorable environment (unless you believe it's going to build a disease free bubble successfully) but still even if it does high shear will be around it so it's going to some effects on it regardless. EPAC has relatively much less shear, formation is going to take the path of least resistance as does all weather. I think an EPAC system will try to come together regardless of the SW Carib

Another poster has said earlier this season, look for the good conditions first then try to find something to move into it and develop. This formula has worked well off the SE US coast and north of the Antilles.

[chaser1]

You would think with the NAO being Negative we would be seeing more deepening troughs in the Eastern part of the U.S., guess that won't be the case?

Yeah that's really bizarre. The AO and NAO are forecasted to be very negative, the PNA positive. Yet for the Southeast (I'm in Orlando Florida), all the models show zero hint of these teleconnections. No cool weather whatsoever. Warm weather is forecasted in fact. Generally over the next two weeks mid to upper 80s highs and upper 60s low 70s (mainly low 70s) for lows. This warm weather forecast would indicate the lack of a trough.

What is going on? Why isn't the forecast reflecting these teleconnections?

Well, hey there neighbor! I was wondering the same thing about the apparent lack of forecasted troughing over the E. Conus (i've just recently moved from Miami up to the Orlando area too). So, i'm thinking one of two things make sense.

One might be that we still have a general long wave patterns with troughing somewhere from the Mississippi river to the U.S. east coast, however at the same time there just might not be any real pockets of cold air dropping south and we generally get a retreating of the southern most extension of the westerlies. The latest GFS basically indicates just that, with a tropical storm moving slowly westward and strengthening across the SW Gulf underneath a weak mid level ridge.

The other possibility?? Perhaps ALL the reliable global models are just plum crazy and none of them see another significant front soon dropping south from Canada and into the deepening E. Coast trough in about 7-8 days. If that scenario were to play out, some point in Florida becomes "ground zero" for this potential storm developing to the south. Climatology would suggest this second option to be more likely, but present synoptic forecasting tools would suggest against it. Go figure????

[chaser1]

that way go gfs want back off we cannot forecast that many days ahead

It (GFS) backed off of its strength of SW Caribbean low, but it still had it. However, is this a sign it is going to give into the Euro soon? Do you have an opinion? Stay tuned!

Wouldn't it be ironic if tonight's Euro were to give in to the GFS lol?

Actually, the way I see it..... both the GFS and EURO are in fairly SIMILAR pattern agreement. Remember, the 12Z EURO did show a closed 1004 low just E. of Belize in about 8 days, then continuing westward when it just as quickly dropped the system. Thats no surprise because "genesis" is it's weak point. Meanwhile, the GFS has been pretty consistant with genesis of a storm originating out of the W. Caribbean as well. Only different here is that the more significant deepening occurs in the Southwestern most Gulf where it appears that the T.S. reaches hurricane intensity before Mexico landfall. If we see any named storm develop, i'd give the tie-breaker to the GFS for sniffing it out sooner. If no "Atlantic" tropical cyclone ever develops out of all of this, well then I'd have to give the edge to the EURO for maintaining its typical "low key" longer range forecast profile.

What I'll find particularly ironic....... is if BOTH models are "wonky" and we ultimately see a significant trough in the East Conus that ends up driving a strong front down through Florida again. Once again, the GFS might again be vindicated with a storm moving N.E. through Florida, unless of course newly realized upper level shear takes care of that threat (in which case one would have to suggest the Euro was correct with not forecasting tropical development). Either way, its hard to imagine that both models could be so off in their detecting of a significant near term trough and associated cold front. So, while others might continue to watch and see if a T.D. ultimately develops to our south....I'll be a bit more curious to see if any of the models begin to show nuances of flip-flopping and soon after begin to show a significant deviation from present 6-8 day forecasts, and with a strong front heading south.

[chaser1]

Uh oh....? In reference to my last posts , take a read from this new NCEP (Model) Extended Forecast Discussion update below -

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 10 2014 - 12Z TUE OCT 14 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK... THOUGH THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN AND PARALLEL GFS ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALL SHOW THE PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING BY
NEXT MON-TUE/D6-7 WHEREAS THE RECENT GFS/GEFS RUNS ARE MUCH
WEAKER/FLATTER WITH THE ENERGY IN QUESTION AND RACE IT EASTWARD AT
A HIGHER LATITUDE INTO ONTARIO. GIVEN THE BETTER RECENT
PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN WITH THE COMPLICATED/AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW FROM THE W PAC INTO/THROUGH NOAM... HAVE USED THE 12Z
ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AS A BASE FOR THE FORECAST. THE FACT THAT THE
PARALLEL GFS /T1534... ONLY AVAILABLE IN-HOUSE AT THIS TIME/...
LARGELY AGREES WITH THE ECMWF-LED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS YIELDS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT/OPERATIONAL GFS
AND GEFS MEAN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
SOUTH OF 40N THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIKELY LIFTING NORTH AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS TOWARD
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC
NW THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT TO MODEST
RAINFALL... ENHANCED WITH THE TERRAIN... THROUGH THE INTERIOR INTO
THE ROCKIES. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEXT MON-TUE/D6-7
IN THE MID- AND LOWER-MS VALLEY SHOULD THE SHARP/DEEP TROUGH FORM
AS FORECAST... TAPPING THE GULF FOR ADDED MOISTURE. ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN AREA OF 2 INCHES QPF IN THE DAY
6-7 PERIOD /12Z SUN-12Z TUE/ INVOF ARKANSAS... WHICH IS RATHER
HIGH FOR THAT LEAD TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM IN THE EAST WITH
RIDGING BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING TROUGHING. COOLING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA IN THE WEST... MOSTLY FOR
DAYTIME MAXES... BUT WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE MARITIME RATHER
THAN CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ORIGINS.


FRACASSO

[jlauderdal]

Uh oh....? In reference to my last posts , take a read from this new NCEP (Model) Extended Forecast Discussion update below -

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 10 2014 - 12Z TUE OCT 14 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK... THOUGH THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN AND PARALLEL GFS ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALL SHOW THE PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING BY
NEXT MON-TUE/D6-7 WHEREAS THE RECENT GFS/GEFS RUNS ARE MUCH
WEAKER/FLATTER WITH THE ENERGY IN QUESTION AND RACE IT EASTWARD AT
A HIGHER LATITUDE INTO ONTARIO. GIVEN THE BETTER RECENT
PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN WITH THE COMPLICATED/AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW FROM THE W PAC INTO/THROUGH NOAM... HAVE USED THE 12Z
ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AS A BASE FOR THE FORECAST. THE FACT THAT THE
PARALLEL GFS /T1534... ONLY AVAILABLE IN-HOUSE AT THIS TIME/...
LARGELY AGREES WITH THE ECMWF-LED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS YIELDS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT/OPERATIONAL GFS
AND GEFS MEAN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
SOUTH OF 40N THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIKELY LIFTING NORTH AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS TOWARD
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC
NW THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT TO MODEST
RAINFALL... ENHANCED WITH THE TERRAIN... THROUGH THE INTERIOR INTO
THE ROCKIES. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEXT MON-TUE/D6-7
IN THE MID- AND LOWER-MS VALLEY SHOULD THE SHARP/DEEP TROUGH FORM
AS FORECAST... TAPPING THE GULF FOR ADDED MOISTURE. ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN AREA OF 2 INCHES QPF IN THE DAY
6-7 PERIOD /12Z SUN-12Z TUE/ INVOF ARKANSAS... WHICH IS RATHER
HIGH FOR THAT LEAD TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM IN THE EAST WITH
RIDGING BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING TROUGHING. COOLING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA IN THE WEST... MOSTLY FOR
DAYTIME MAXES... BUT WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE MARITIME RATHER
THAN CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ORIGINS.


FRACASSO

they dont like MU either, shocking

[NDG]

Pretty soon this thread will be very quiet. King Euro will once again be the winner

[ronjon]

Pretty soon this thread will be very quiet. King Euro will once again be the winner

I dunno - see the huge blow up of convection now in the SW Caribbean - looks more like the CMC may be right on this one, lol!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014100700/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

[caneman]

How does this make King Euro right (sarc..) While indeed GFS has been all over the place this year, it hasn't been like the Euro has been spectacular either. Many times it seems the Euro doesn't latch on to development until development has occurred.

BTW - I see that too. I'm not buying East Pac. nor am I buying a Texas hit. This is the time of the year where you see them come north and NE.

[Blown Away]

Nothing on the GFS 06z, maybe a weak reflection of our former system...

[blp]

Pretty soon this thread will be very quiet. King Euro will once again be the winner

You are right. 06z GFS now following Euro lead.

[caneman]

What Euro lead? Of an East Pac system or No system?

[Hurricaneman]

GFS moves to the EPAC and its pretty sad when it cant get a 48 hr cyclogenesis right so for non developed systems it needs a fix but for developed systems its a pretty good model
but does develop something north of the Lesser Antilles which all the models have and may need to be watched along the East Coast especially since the Euro shows something there from the wave east of the Lesser Antilles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; +84
Oct. 10, the day the GFS has been insisting on development in SW Caribbean

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; +216

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; +288