Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Very off-Topic=If you are tired of looking at model runs you can visit the Typhoon Vongfong thread and see a beauty and maybe making a run at Haiyan. Go here

[ninel conde]

lets forget the bogus storm in carib. 06GFS has what appears to be a hurricane se of hatteras alot further west than previous runs.

[wxman57]

I'm plotting the 12Z GFS 500mb heights and the 00Z ECMWF 500mb heights together for comparison. By early next week, they're not even remotely close across the U.S. & Gulf of Mexico. The Euro has a very deep and closed upper low over eastern Oklahoma next Tuesday while the GFS has a ridge there and no trof in sight. They're worlds apart as far as next week's weather pattern. I suspect the GFS solution is out to lunch, and that includes the storm in the NW Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

wxman57 say their not thing talk about so let end topic of gfs

[gatorcane]

GFS is back to developing the SW Carib area in the 12Z run with development in 5 days and here is how the high-resolution frames end at 192 hours with a system slowly gaining strength in the NW Caribbean heading slowly NNW, a classic October storm:

[gatorcane]

I'm plotting the 12Z GFS 500mb heights and the 00Z ECMWF 500mb heights together for comparison. By early next week, they're not even remotely close across the U.S. & Gulf of Mexico. The Euro has a very deep and closed upper low over eastern Oklahoma next Tuesday while the GFS has a ridge there and no trof in sight. They're worlds apart as far as next week's weather pattern. I suspect the GFS solution is out to lunch, and that includes the storm in the NW Caribbean.

The 12Z GFS is now aligning more with the ECMWF and shows the trough but also shows a Western Caribbean system that develops and eventually recurves over Cuba and extreme South Florida. Curious if the 12Z ECMWF finally bites on this Western Caribbean system.

[ronjon]

Lets see what the CMC comes up with at its 12z run.

[ronjon]

Whatever if anything develops will probably not race off as fast to the east as 12z GFS. The ECM has the long wave trough much further west over the central US.

[weatherfanatic]

CMC does not develop anything much in caribbean but it does show the system over western atlantic. That could possibly be the system the GFS was showing going up the EC. They seem to be all confused, just as I am

[Ntxw]

12z Euro still wants no part of the W Carib system

[wxman57]

Here's a screenshot of my workstation with the 12Z ECMWF 500mb heights (in red) compared with the 12Z GFS (in blue) valid next Tuesday morning. They're not even remotely close to each other. Note that the 12Z Canadian is MUCH closer to the ECMWF, though it has the rather deep low center in Iowa vs. northeast Oklahoma. I wouldn't put much trust at all in the GFS solution.

[Ntxw]

Here's a screenshot of my workstation with the 12Z ECMWF 500mb heights (in red) compared with the 12Z GFS (in blue) valid next Tuesday morning. They're not even remotely close to each other. Note that the 12Z Canadian is MUCH closer to the ECMWF, though it has the rather deep low center in Iowa vs. northeast Oklahoma. I wouldn't put much trust at all in the GFS solution.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ECvsGFS.JPG

Given the severity of the -AO/NAO I wouldn't buy the GFS either at 500mb. It's a strong high latitude block which screams deep trof in the CONUS, not progressive flow.

[jlauderdal]

Here's a screenshot of my workstation with the 12Z ECMWF 500mb heights (in red) compared with the 12Z GFS (in blue) valid next Tuesday morning. They're not even remotely close to each other. Note that the 12Z Canadian is MUCH closer to the ECMWF, though it has the rather deep low center in Iowa vs. northeast Oklahoma. I wouldn't put much trust at all in the GFS solution.

"I wouldn't put much trust at all in the GFS solution"

MU takes it on the chin from 57

[weatherfanatic]

The 12z GFS ensembles really do not show much, at least not in the time frame we were talking a few days ago, yet again pushed back to something around 20th, I am going for the NO its not happening.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is abandoning post. Just about develops a much stronger EPAC system than previous runs, at least for this run it's caving to the Euro.

[LarryWx]

Lol, MU now has gone to the Euro with a full-fledged TC in the eastern Pacific rather than the SW Caribbean. MU ftl already? Opinions?

[blp]

18z GFS is abandoning post. Just about develops a much stronger EPAC system than previous runs, at least for this run it's caving to the Euro.

Yep just was going to post that the white flag is up. Bow to the master Euro.

[cycloneye]

As we have NHC mentioning the area near Panama,the model runs for that area only will be posted at the Panama Thread.Thanks for the cooperation.

[Ntxw]

There's still an area to watch and that is the Bermuda triangle. That has a more legit chance with better conditions for a quick spin up, maybe transition to something subtropical within the next 7 days.

[weatherfanatic]

Okkkkayyy, take a look at what the 18z GFS does with another system near panama down in caribbean at 312-384 hrs, you know who part 2! (I do not have imageshack and am not going to signup right now) I think the GFS really needs to get a thorough cleaning, iffffff this were true I would be more surprised than anything I have ever been surprised about, and only one week apart from you know who two years ago.