Global model runs discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Here's a screenshot of my workstation with the 12Z ECMWF 500mb heights (in red) compared with the 12Z GFS (in blue) valid next Tuesday morning. They're not even remotely close to each other. Note that the 12Z Canadian is MUCH closer to the ECMWF, though it has the rather deep low center in Iowa vs. northeast Oklahoma. I wouldn't put much trust at all in the GFS solution.


http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ECvsGFS.JPG

Yep and with the ECM solution the SW upper level winds will be screaming over the NW Carib. Sea in that graphic eventually.

[caneman]

It does indeed appear that the Euro will win out on this one EPAC it is.

[blp]

We may see some activity still in the W. Carribean. The Euro MJO forecast has a moderate strength event happening in the next two weeks. This concurs with the GFS forecast.

[gatorcane]

Not sure if it is the current low or some other low that redevelops but the FIM, NAVGEM, and NAM have not given up and continue to show something developing within the next 5 days in the SW Caribbean and heading NW.

[wxman57]

GFS has given up on the idea of any significant development in the Caribbean/Gulf, which is probably the correct solution.

[ninel conde]

this may be one of the earliest ends to a season ever.

[wxman57]

this may be one of the earliest ends to a season ever.

Looking back through 1900, the last date of a named storm is sometimes in September or early October. Of course, those 1918, 1914 and 1917 seasons are suspect, as there could have been missed storms beyond September.

1918 – Sept. 14
1914 / 2014? – Sept. 19
1993 – Sept. 21
1960 – Sept. 27
1917/1983 – Sept. 30
2006 – Oct. 3

[cycloneye]

Note= As NHC begins to mention the area NE of Leeward Islands,the model runs for that area will now be posted at the thread for the area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116819&p=2418405#p2418405

[ninel conde]

this may be one of the earliest ends to a season ever.

Looking back through 1900, the last date of a named storm is sometimes in September or early October. Of course, those 1918, 1914 and 1917 seasons are suspect, as there could have been missed storms beyond September.

1918 – Sept. 14
1914 / 2014? – Sept. 19
1993 – Sept. 21
1960 – Sept. 27
1917/1983 – Sept. 30
2006 – Oct. 3

2nd earliest end?

[Hammy]

this may be one of the earliest ends to a season ever.

Looking back through 1900, the last date of a named storm is sometimes in September or early October. Of course, those 1918, 1914 and 1917 seasons are suspect, as there could have been missed storms beyond September.

1918 – Sept. 14
1914 / 2014? – Sept. 19
1993 – Sept. 21
1960 – Sept. 27
1917/1983 – Sept. 30
2006 – Oct. 3

2nd earliest end?

Little too early to make this assumption given that there may be something forming by the weekend...

[blp]

12z Euro hinting at a low developing in the NW Carribean at the tail end of the strong trough. It is just one run but more believable with the MJO forecast coniciding and BTW it is the Euro.

[jlauderdal]

when mu jumps on board then i will beleive it:roll:

[blp]

12z Euro hinting at a low developing in the NW Carribean at the tail end of the strong trough. It is just one run but more believable with the MJO forecast coniciding and BTW it is the Euro.

[]http://oi57.tinypic.com/2zjeut5.jpg[/img]

[]http://oi60.tinypic.com/210kp37.jpg[/img]

when mu jumps on board then i will beleive it:roll:

No kidding, if the GFS jumps on it then I will know that the Euro is wrong.

[gatorcane]

The long-range 18Z GFS shows something in the NW Carib east of Belize like the ECMWF around 240 hours. The GFS blows it up into a hurricane and sends it E then NE in the very long-range over Cuba and east of Florida. At least it has support from the ECMWF on this run!

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS may have been right after all but 10 days too early so its basically wait and see since the Euro is on board with such a solution so between October 15th and 25th is the time to watch the caribbean as this gyre might not move much and the MJO is heading into a favorable phase by day 7 according to the Euro

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

The FIM and NAVGEM models continue to show another developing in the next 24-48 hours or so in the SW Caribbean. FIM develops a closed low within 72 hours and moves it NW towards the NW Caribbean/NE Yucatan area where it develops into a cyclone. The 12Z GEM showed something similar. Of course without the more reliable ECMWF and UKMET models showing this, its doubtful this happens but something to watch.

[blp]

Just saw this another site. Levi is at it again. This guy is awesome.

Good evening all.

I have another new toy for you guys

I've activated forecast products for the JMA (a.k.a. Japanese) Global Spectral Model. The public data is 2.5 x 2.5 degrees - very coarse, but the actual model is run at 19km resolution (higher than the GFS). The JMA had a 5-day Z500 ACC of 0.85 for September, which is up there with the GFS in terms of forecast skill.

Enjoy! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF brings a system into the Bahamas and SE Florida in the long-range. It looks like it is being spawned from the system east of the Leewards being discussed here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116827

[blp]

Well the 12z UKMet is also showing something like the Euro. That is a strange path for October, it looks like September. 2014 has been just one big headache.

[jlauderdal]

Well the 12z UKMet is also showing something like the Euro. That is a strange path for October, it looks like September. 2014 has been just one big headache.

against my better judgement but here goes..what is the gfs doing with this system?