WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 080302
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HIGOS (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022015
100 PM CHST SUN FEB 8 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HIGOS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 157.2E
ABOUT 380 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 840 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 795 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HIGOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 157.2 EAST...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
HIGOS IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN
BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARD. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGOS IS
FORECASTED TO BE A DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT 380 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 080312
TCSWNP

A. 02W (HIGOS)

B. 08/0232Z

C. 12.2N

D. 157.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=3.5 BASED ON .8 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=3.5. MET=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2015 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 12:26:18 N Lon : 157:03:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 995.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -54.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 32km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.2 degrees

[euro6208]

We are climatologically in the slowest months, February and March, for tropical cyclone activity in the WPAC so it is quite interesting to see a strengthening storm out there...

Maybe this is a precursor to el nino later this year...It will be something if we get a category 5 this month or next, that will cause some massive westerly wind burst and help the nino...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Astonishing poleward outflow

Should be 45-55 kts based on my eye. Very impressive for a February storm!

What is the record strongest Feb typhoon?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We are climatologically in the slowest months, February and March, for tropical cyclone activity in the WPAC so it is quite interesting to see a strengthening storm out there...

Maybe this is a precursor to el nino later this year...It will be something if we get a category 5 this month or next, that will cause some massive westerly wind burst and help the nino...

It is the first time (if Higos becomes one) that there'd be two typhoons during the first two months of the season in history.

Much more quality this time compared to last year!

[euro6208]

02W HIGOS 150208 0600 12.3N 157.2E WPAC 50 985

Up to 50 knots!

[euro6208]

EURO now recurves this well east of the Marianas with GFS...

[euro6208]

Latest warning out...forecast to peak as a low end category 1 typhoon...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Historic one. Expected to be a typhoon!~

TS 1502 (HIGOS)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 8 February 2015

<Analyses at 08/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°20'(12.3°)
E157°05'(157.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E156°20'(156.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°50'(14.8°)
E154°35'(154.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55'(16.9°)
E153°30'(153.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 724 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 080527Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
DEEP CURVED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI, SSMIS IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. TS HIGOS REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS
02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM ALLOWING TS 02W TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TS 02W WILL BEGIN ITS WEAKENING
TREND AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VWS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING VWS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS. JTWC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm thinking of a hit over Saipan, as it is expected to become a typhoon.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 080934
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HIGOS (02W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022015
734 PM CHST SUN FEB 8 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HIGOS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 156.9E
ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 485 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 820 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 770 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HIGOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.9 EAST...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
HIGOS IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH MONDAY THEN BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND AFTERWARD. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGOS IS
FORECASTED TO BE A DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT 380 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 200 AM CHST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From that loop, I can see it begin to shift westerly.

[euro6208]

02W HIGOS 150208 1200 12.2N 156.8E WPAC 55 982

Up to 55 knots!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

now moving to the SW or may just have been a jog..

[euro6208]

Models are all over the place with GFS still recurving this...

Will be interesting to see what EURO does...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 702 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081059Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B IMAGE
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. TS HIGOS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TS 02W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HIGOS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE NEAR
TERM AND THEN SLIGHTLY SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STR. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
PARTICULARLY THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOWING TS
02W TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, TS 02W WILL BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER VWS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING VWS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS. JTWC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR, THE LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

That outflow is just It keeps getting better and better

[euro6208]

Latest 200mb analysis reveals a mid-latitude trough entering korea and japan from northern china will be passing north of iwo to and minami tori shima next mid week. It will not dig farther south and no direct interaction is expected with higos. It will though greatly increase the wind shear over higos and weaken it considerably...