Global model runs discussion

[chaser1]

Theirs nothing down there to look at the GFS is out to lunch

Their is some disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean.

Oh, I'll be there'll be something coming out of the Caribbean all right. The time frame is getting closer, it fits climo, and it'll see to fit the pattern of a fairly deep trough or cutoff down to the N. Gulf Coast by late next weekend. Of course, that doesnt mean it will be a T.S or a Hurricane. I think the solution that the GFS is showing now, is pretty sensible. A deepening sheared mess capable of dropping a few inches of rain through the southern half of Florida perhaps... maybe a depression?

[ronjon]

00z and 06z GFS runs continue with western Caribbean development with low pressure forming next Sunday. Given its track record...well...I'll let that speak for itself. The GFS is quickly overtaking the CMC for phantom storm development.

[gatorcane]

GFS and GEM develop an EPAC hurricane and cross it over to the BOC in the long-range where it heads N or NE into the Gulf. Something to watch for sure.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Gator,

I picked up on that and posted a page or so back. But then the models seem to back off some what, from what you are saying they must be showing it again.

[gatorcane]

Global models: GFS/ECMWF/GEM cross something over from EPAC to BOC and around the same timeframe making it more believable:

12Z ECMWF:


12Z GFS:


12Z GEM:

[TheStormExpert]

With the Euro now onboard with that solution, it's now worth watching.

[Hammy]

Euro is showing former 91L possibly trying to do something as well as it moves north, so we could get two more storms this month.

[PTrackerLA]

Very interesting gatorcane something to keep an eye on with the 3 globals showing a similar situation and this isn't "super" long range at this point.

[ronjon]

For entertainment purposes, the 12z GEM:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014101312/gem_mslp_wind_watl.html

[ronjon]

Probably phantom storm which will be gone from models tomorrow but similar to 1995's Opal track.

[BigA]

Though I'm far from convinced that development will occur, I'm not convinced that this is a phantom storm. First, the ECMWF is showing it now, which always must be given some weight. Second, the large-scale atmospheric conditions are going to be conducive to rising motion with a strong MJO pulse pushing through the area. This is a typical setup for October Western Caribbean (and to a lesser extent Gulf of Mexico) development.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows the crossover happening again.

[chaser1]

Looks like when we're close to about 174 hours, here is where things start to get a little dicey. If any transient low coming up from the Pacific might be easily track-able, however something very weak and ultimately becoming quite broad, could mean genesis could occur anywhere from the extreme western Caribbean to over the Yucatan, to the S. Gulf. This too will play a big role where the greatest impact might be. To be honest though, i'm kind of astonished that the EURO has this showing up as such a defined cyclone, especially at the 240 hour. Hard for me not to be a little leery but will be interesting to see if run to run consistency continues with its forecast. t

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening,

Any chance someone can post an automated long range run? Or A still of the end of the run.

[floridasun78]

could this come from end of front pass by fl and sit in nw carribbean?

[chaser1]

could this come from end of front pass by fl and sit in nw Caribbean?

Yes, it could. It would not be uncommon to have an area of low pressure form from the southern extension of an old frontal trough laying across Florida and into the Caribbean or Gulf. However, the fairly strong Gulf system that so many models are now picking up on, appears to be associated with an existing large gyre of light winds and thunderstorms over Central America and extending into parts of the Pacific. The GFS has been hinting for days (maybe weeks LOL) that something might form in this area. Well, now it appears that the pattern for such development might become a bit more conducive. Plus, now the EURO is indicating at about 190 hours, that a storm may be trying to develop in this area. Tonight's run of GFS continues to indicate "something" developing around that same time frame.

[tolakram]

Euro 0Z has that storm in the southern gulf develop and then dive SE back into Mexico.

[TheStormExpert]

Is that a Tropical/Subtropical system up in the NE Atlantic near the Azores on the 00z Euro?

[gatorcane]

Surprised there is not more interest in this cross-over system but here you go with some good model support continuing:

GFS 168 hours:


ECMWF 168 hours:


GEM 168 hours:

[DESTRUCTION5]

^^ Now that's pretty good agreement we will see a BOC system in the next week..where it heads after is the question..