Global model runs discussion

[dexterlabio]

Not sure where to ask this...but I'm curious if the current parallel GFS and the original GFS runs are the same..why is there suddenly a "parallel" GFS? Thanks to whoever will answer.

[RL3AO]

Parallel GFS is the new high-resolution run of the GFS that goes operational on 12/17. You usually don't just flip a switch when you upgrade a model. You run them together so you can make sure their isn't massive errors in the system.

[Alyono]

another MU special from the 12Z

[cycloneye]

A delay on the date of the GFS upgrade as now it will be on January 5th.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... on_aaa.htm

[Frank2]

The GFS shows a Hurricane Lenny system by Day 10...

[cycloneye]

Oh my. I wish the upgrade would be tomorrow but we have to wait a few weeks.

[Frank2]

Perhaps a bit weaker but still some sort of a tropical low moving ENE...

[cycloneye]

Well,GFS is not alone as 12z ECMWF joins in that scenario.

[dexterlabio]

Parallel GFS is the new high-resolution run of the GFS that goes operational on 12/17. You usually don't just flip a switch when you upgrade a model. You run them together so you can make sure their isn't massive errors in the system.

So you mean this Parallel GFS is the one we will be seeing after the upgrade? Are the changes already applied to it even before it goes operational? Because if you're following the WPAC right now, the GFS and the Parallel GFS runs are kinda on opposite sides on the possible typhoon.

[cycloneye]

A new delay to the GFS upgrade as now is on January 14.Hopefully is the final delay.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... fs_aab.htm

[dexterlabio]

Waiting for the official confirmation that the upgrade has been completed to post it. This was the last statement issued in December23.

Effective on January 14, 2015, beginning with the 1200

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS Analysis and

Forecast System

Thanks for this info.

Good thing we'll be able to test the new GFS right away with TS Mekkhala in the Western Pacific... Waiting for the 12z run tonight

[cycloneye]

GFS upgrade is underway


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... suedby=NFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1507Z WED JAN 14 2015


12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME AND THE NEWLY UPGRADED GFS
IS UNDERWAY. THE GFS UPGRADE IS A MAJOR UPGRADE WITH NUMEROUS
CHANGES INCLUDING RESOLUTION. PLEASE REFERENCE THE TIN FOR
DETAILS...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... fs_cca.htm

SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Levi Cowan has a note about this and his products.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[wxman57]

I checked the ARL website and they have the new GFS. Data is high-res and every 3 hrs out to 240 hours now. Here's a 10-day meteogram for Houston. Warming up next week.



And the new extended period:

[Tireman4]

I wonder if this version will show a Cat 5 in the Gulf in Winter. Woo Hoo that would be the ticket!!!

[cycloneye]

So far so good for GFS starting on time their runs with the new upgrade.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1446Z THU JAN 15 2015

THE 12Z GFS HAS STARTED


12Z RAOB RECAP..

76225/CUU - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEM.
76256/GYM - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEM.
70350/ADQ - PURGE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY 771 TO 700MB SUPER
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.
72469/DNR - 10159; NOT AVAILABLE..
72210/TBW - PURGE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY 943 TO 934MB SUPER
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.
72214/TAE - PURGE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY 950 TO 940MB SUPER
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.


A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.


SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[gatorcane]

Surprising really good model support for this system actually but given the cool waters in the Gulf, it's hard to believe it will be a warm-core system. Will be interesting to see what future model runs show.

[TheStormExpert]

Haven't checked the models but I'm guessing they've dropped this model storm? Seems way too early to get action in the Atlantic, especially the GoM which has been near dead in the meat of the hurricane season for what seems like years now! What's interesting though is the the Euro showed it first, followed by the Canadian, then finally the GFS.

[Alyono]

the precip pattern looks very frontal

[cycloneye]

More upgrades to GFS on some products beginning on March 24 at 12z run.

Technical Implementation Notice 15-09

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

1130 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2015



To: Subscribers:

-Family of Services

-NOAA Weather Wire Service

-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

-NOAAPORT

Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees



From: Tim McClung

Science Plans Branch Chief

Office of Science and Technology



Subject: Changes to Global Forecast System (GFS)-based Model

Output Statistics (MOS) Guidance effective

March 24, 2015



On or about Tuesday, March 24, 2015, beginning with the 1200

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model run, the NWS

Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) will implement a

refresh of the GFS-based MOS guidance for the warm season. This

implementation will include updated cool season guidance for

some elements. These changes will impact the Localized Aviation

MOS Program (LAMP) products beginning with the 1600 UTC cycle.

MDL has created a comparison webpage for the short-range and

extended-range GFS-based MOS text bulletins:



http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gf ... oscomp.php



This update will include the following changes to GFS-based MOS

text and BUFR products:



1. Updated warm season equations for the short-range (Days 1-4)

MOS text and BUFR messages from the 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800

UTC model runs. The updates will include the following

elements:



Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

2-meter Temperature

2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

Wind Speed

Wind Direction

6-h/12-h probability of a thunderstorm

6-h/12-h conditional prob. of a severe thunderstorm



2. Updated warm season equations for the extended-range

(Days 1-7) MOS text and BUFR messages from the 0000 and 1200 UTC

model runs. The updates will include the following elements:



Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

2-meter Temperature

2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

Wind Speed

Wind direction

12-h/24-h probability of a thunderstorm



3. To improve the calibration for the cool season, equations for

the following elements were updated for the cool season by

adding three additional months of data to the training sample:



Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

2-meter Temperature

2-meter Dewpoint Temperature



4. Updated warm season equations for the probability of

precipitation occurrence on the hour (PoPO) and the probability

of precipitation occurrence during a 3-hour period (PoPO3) for

all cycles of the short-range (days 1-4) MOS BUFR message.



5. Updated warm season maximum and minimum temperature guidance

for all cycles of the short-range and extended-range MOS COOP

text messages.



6. Updated cool season and warm season mesonet guidance for the

0000 and 1200 UTC cycles. These updates include the following

elements:



Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

2-meter Temperature

2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

Wind Speed

Wind Direction



Guidance for mesonet sites is used in the GFS MOS River Forecast

Center SHEF message (AWIPS ID FTP) and also influences the

Gridded MOS analysis for temperature and wind. New mesonet sites

are not being added to the Gridded MOS analysis at this time.



7. Stations will be added to existing warm season regional

equations for the following elements in the short-range and

extended-range MOS text and BUFR products:



Sky Cover

Probability of Precipitation

Quantitative Precipitation

Ceiling Height

Visibility

Obstruction to Vision



8. NWS will remove two duplicate stations from the short-range

and extended-range GFS MOS text bulletins (AWIPS IDs MAV and

MEX) and BUFR messages for both cool and warm seasons:



K27D Canby Field, MN (same as KCNB)

KM89 Arkadelphia, AR (same as KADF)



In addition to the above, sites that were added or removed with

the cool season refresh (see Technical Implementation Notice

14-47) will also apply to this warm season update.



9. These changes will mean 75 stations in the GFS MOS River

Forecast Center SHEF message (AWIPS ID FTP), which previously

had guidance, will now have missing forecasts. These 75 stations

are sites that have closed, stopped reporting or do not contain

sufficient observations to develop equations. Guidance for new

sites is available for inclusion in the SHEF message at the

request of the RFCs with a future implementation.



The cool season updates outlined above will become effective on

the implementation date. Yhe warm season updates will become

effective starting April 1 for most elements. These changes

will slightly alter the format of the MAV, MEX, MMG and FTP

messages because lines will be added or removed to accommodate

the addition/removal of stations and elements. The communication

identifiers for the GFS MOS text and BUFR products affected by

these changes are shown in the tables below.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... season.htm

[Alyono]

looks like nothing at all to do with the model itself, mainly MOS changes