Global model runs discussion

[lux1a4]

I would think even a weak low in the northern gulf in the next couple of weeks could be significant in terms of pushing the growing oil slick towards the coast - and hampering recovery efforts with winds and seas.

They announced today that they will do a control burn-off of the oil I think beginning tomorrow so the oil should be dissipated by the time this system possibly reaches the Gulf.

burning it is not going to solve much with the amount that is being spilled. in 50 days time at the current rate it'll surpass valdez.

[pepeavilenho]

I think this could be interesting for the EPAC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/92.html

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS goes crazy with the EPAC system as development is appearing increasingly likely:

[tolakram]

Not really worth starting it's own thread for ...

First probability blob of the season.

[wxman57]

So much for this week's East Pac storm as predicted by the GFS about 8-10 days ago. Now it says late NEXT week. Yeah, right. It'll keep saying that every run until eventually it hits one.

[KWT]

Yeah I think it still has a certain amount of feedback issues at this time of year. When you've got the ECM agreeing then things get interesting. Personally I'm not expecting much till perhaps late May/early June in either basin anyway.

[cycloneye]

Lets see if the upgrade of GFS on June 22nd makes it perform much better.

[cycloneye]

Upgrade for HWRF

The HWRF model will be upgraded on June 1rst. Lets see if it does not show many sub 900mb systems.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... 17hwrf.txt


EFFECTIVE TUESDAY JUNE 1 2010...BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED
UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE HURRICANE WEATHER AND RESEARCH
FORECAST /HWRF/--PRINCETON OCEAN MODEL /POM/ COUPLED SYSTEM.

[KWT]

It just needs to sort out the pressure-wind relationship. If you use the HWRF for just the wind forecasts, its not too bad really, though I still find the GFDL probably the better of the two typically.

[cycloneye]

It just needs to sort out the pressure-wind relationship. If you use the HWRF for just the wind forecasts, its not too bad really, though I still find the GFDL probably the better of the two typically.

I agree about GFDL being the better of the two. Lets see if the HWRF upgrade turns it into the better.

[cycloneye]

The wet phase of the MJO is forecast to arrive in the Caribbean and Atlantic after May 20. Lets see if the models start to pickup activity in the Caribbean in the next runs from now on.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS spinning some stuff up in the Long Range...

[boca]

It will be nice when the GFS gets the upgrade on June 22nd.When this model shows something in the meduim range like 120hrs I'll look at it more closely.In the meantime its fantasyland.

[gatorcane]

The wet phase of the MJO is forecast to arrive in the Caribbean and Atlantic after May 20. Lets see if the models start to pickup activity in the Caribbean in the next runs from now on.

The long-range GFS is showing low pressure forming in the SW Caribbean and throughout the Southern Caribbean about the time the wet-phase of the MJO arrives in the Caribbean. While we cannot predict development or not so early, looking at the MJO graphic and the GFS suggests there could be some disturbed weather across this part of the basin forming in about 10 days from now. Climatology suggests no development at this time.

[somethingfunny]

I doubt anything will end up forming in the Atlantic from that, but it seems likely that the EPAC's first storm will form in that timeframe....

TS Agatha, May 24? Just a guess.

[Plant grower]

Not so fast my friend. Based upon analysis of current and forecast signals from the various computer forecast models, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin and the fact that there are already active tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic, there is a pretty good chance that we may have some sort of tropical development by the end of this month or early next month.

Because of this, I have decided to start issuing tropical weather discussions starting on Tuesday morning, May 18th.

Everything that I have looked at thus far continues to point towards an above average hurricane season with multiple threats or landfalls on the US coastline and the Caribbean islands.

[ronjon]

12Z GFS wants to spin a weak low in the western caribbean in the 120 hr time frame. Something to watch. I know the model has done this several times already this early season - it's bound to be right one time. Well, just looked at 200 mb winds forecast in 5 days - they're ripping in the GOM so this one is probably not going to get going.

[Macrocane]

Because of this, I have decided to start issuing tropical weather discussions starting on Tuesday morning, May 18th.

Everything that I have looked at thus far continues to point towards an above average hurricane season with multiple threats or landfalls on the US coastline and the Caribbean islands.

Where are you going to start issuing discussions at?

[wxman57]

Take a look at the projected upper winds over that GFS low next week - 30-60 kts from the SW. It appears to be a frontal feature in a high-shear environment. Nothing to worry about. Shear is still way too high in all areas for development.

[rockyman]

Because of this, I have decided to start issuing tropical weather discussions starting on Tuesday morning, May 18th.

Everything that I have looked at thus far continues to point towards an above average hurricane season with multiple threats or landfalls on the US coastline and the Caribbean islands.

Where are you going to start issuing discussions at?

Crownweather.com