WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Very tight circulation...

[ejeraldmc]

Is that an eye trying to form? hmmmm

[euro6208]

Wish PAGASA had a radar in Samar to see if this has an eye...

[dexterlabio]

JMA latest warning up to 55 knots.

[Alyono]

JTWC calling this a typhoon

[cycloneye]

The official agency JMA has not upgraded yet.

STS 1501 (MEKKHALA)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 16 January 2015
<Analyses at 16/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°55'(10.9°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 17/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E125°40'(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 17/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30'(12.5°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 18/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E121°30'(121.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E120°10'(120.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1501 (MEKKHALA)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 17 January 2015

<Analyses at 17/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N11°20'(11.3°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55'(12.9°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E121°05'(121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[dexterlabio]

now officially the first typhoon of 2015 per JMA..up to 70 knots

[dexterlabio]

really glad and thankful the Pope's plane landed safely in Tacloban despite the rain and strong winds.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO the landfall would be very close to Llorente, Eastern Samar.

[ManilaTC]

Microwave Imagery showing that the Typhoon is now attempting to close an eyewall.

[euro6208]

Up to 70 knots!

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY, AND OBSCURE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND FROM A RING FEATURE ON A 162156Z 89 GHZ GPM
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM
MOTION RESULTING IN OVERALL LOW VWS WHILE A ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
PERSISTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEKKHALA WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN SAMAR BY TAU 12 THEN DRAG ACROSS THE
VISAYAN ISLANDS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY TAU
48. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS, AND EVENTUAL EXPOSURE TO THE
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SCS. TY MEKKHALA
WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU
72. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD, LENDING AN
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Closeup of landfall from JTWC landfall over Borongan City...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA Visayas: 61 kph gustiness in Guiuan, Eastern Samar at 9:45 am today, January 17, due to Tropical Storm Amang.

Here strong winds of 45-50 kph are bringing breezy overcast conditions in our Sinulog parades

[oaba09]

really glad and thankful the Pope's plane landed safely in Tacloban despite the rain and strong winds.

I'm honestly surprised that the pope decided to continue with their flight(signal #2 was already hoisted at the time in leyte).

The question is, will he continue with his supposed flight back to manila this afternoon?

I wouldn't want to be the pilot of that plane.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Second-strongest on record to hit the Philippines on January based on my research.

[euro6208]

Mekkhala is the first January typhoon to actually develop in January since 2005's Typhoon Kulap...

Kulap peaked at 65 knots...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 JAN 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 11:22:09 N Lon : 126:27:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.6mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.6

Center Temp : -79.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 71km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.3 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mekkhala is the first January typhoon to actually develop in January since 2005's Typhoon Kulap...

Kulap peaked at 65 knots...

The first since Roy actually... Kulap is still debated whether it was or not. (JMA STS)

One thing for sure: Mekkhala surprised our expectations on intensity and track. This might follow the track of strong typhoon Skip (Yoning) on November 1988.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I completely agree with the JTWC's track but agree too with JMA's intensity forecast