SIO: BANSI - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

92S INVEST 150110 0000 17.5S 52.8E SHEM 20 1007

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ZCZC 562
WTIO30 FMEE 091320
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5
2.A POSITION 2015/01/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 15 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/10 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/01/10 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2015/01/11 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2015/01/11 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
60H: 2015/01/12 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/12 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/13 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2015/01/14 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.0
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPPED AND STRENGTHEN
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
THE ASCAT DATA AT 0614Z SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTRE NEAR 19.1S/52.7E.
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD, WITH GOOD
EQUATORIAL (DESPITE A SLIGHT INDIRECT MONSOON FLOW) AND POLEWARD
SUPPLY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT MAY BE OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENC
E TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CLEARLY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
EASED AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED AS AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD BUILD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY (SLOW NORTHWARDS DRIFT POSSIBLE) BEFORE A TURN TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTH-EAST ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. IT COULD BY THAT TIME BE A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY REGULAR ISSUE
BULLETINS.=
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTXS21 PGTW 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 53.0E TO 17.4S 56.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S 53.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
53.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 53.7E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 102252Z MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120200Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 624
WTIO30 FMEE 110115
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
2.A POSITION 2015/01/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 54.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-NORTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 150 SW: 70 NW: 370
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/11 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/12 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/01/12 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/13 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/13 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/14 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/15 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/16 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHEN AND THE INFRA RED PICTURES INDICATES
SOME CURVATURE FEATURES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER D
IVERGENCE SOUTHWARD.
THE POSITION AND MSLP ARE BASED ON THE GROUND LEVEL OBSERVATION OF THE TROMELIN ISLAND'S STATION A
T 00Z.
TODAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVELS STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND
A TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
IMPROVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WITH THE BUILDING OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
POLEWARD. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEEPEN TODAY.
FROM MONDAY 12 TO WEDNESDAY 14, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT IN THE NORTH, AND THEN IN THE NORTH
-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILT IN ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN TO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS AND TO SLOW DOWN ON AN EAST AND THEN NORTH-EAST
PATH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON BEING FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH
A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD.
THURSDAY 15 AND FRIDAY 16, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH-EATWARD AND TO ACCELERATE, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EASTWARD AND A TROUGH SOUTHWARD. A SECOND UPPER OU
TFLOW CHANNEL IS LIKELY TO BUILT EQUATORWARD ON THURSDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO KEEP ON DEEP
ENING.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM W
ITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 724
WTIO30 FMEE 110713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 54.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/11 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/12 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/13 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/13 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/15 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/16 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHEN AND
CURVED INTO A BAND OF MORE THAN A HALF TURN, DUE TO THIS CLEAR
DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM, IT HAS BEEN NAMED.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE SOUTHWARD.
THE MSLP IS BASED ON THE GROUND LEVEL OBSERVATION OF THE TROMELIN
ISLAND'S STATION AT 00Z.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVELS STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE
IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND A TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS RECURVING
SOUTH-EASTWARDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WITH THE BUILDING OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE POLEWARD. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEEPEN.
FROM MONDAY 12 TO WEDNESDAY 14, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT IN THE
NORTH, AND THEN IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND ANOTHER MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILT IN ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN TO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS AND TO SLOW DOWN ON AN EAST
AND THEN NORTH-EAST PATH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON
BEING FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD.
THURSDAY 15 AND FRIDAY 16, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH-EATWARD
AND TO ACCELERATE, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE EASTWARD AND A TROUGH SOUTHWARD. A SECOND UPPER OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IS LIKELY TO BUILT EQUATORWARD ON THURSDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO KEEP ON DEEPENING.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.=
NNNN

[euro6208]

Forecast to reach 80 knots 1 min...

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM NORTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE LLCC HAS
INCREASED IN DEFINITION AND SYMMETRY. AN 110241Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS ALSO REVEALED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE DESPITE A
RECENT DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE A LARGE BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANKS. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT AS GOOD OUTFLOW EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND LIMITING THE
DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROCEED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MODIFYING NER
THROUGH TAU 72 AND INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO
THE SOUTH AND ASSUME STEERING WHICH WILL DRIVE TC 05S ON A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO LESSEN. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST SCENARIO AND TRACK. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST
AS THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW NOT PERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IF THIS LOW DOES PERSIST, THE SYSTEM
COULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 110151Z JAN 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS 21
PGTW 110200).//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 707
WTIO30 FMEE 111850
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 55.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/12 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/12 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/13 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/13 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/14 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/14 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/15 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/16 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.5-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF MID LEVELS FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE
IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND A TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS.
IY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND WITH THE BUILDING OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
POLEWARD. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEEPEN.
FROM MONDAY 12 TO WEDNESDAY 14, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT IN THE
NORTH, AND THEN IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND ANOTHER MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILT IN ITS SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN TO COMPETING STEERING
FLOWS AND TO KEEP A SLOW TRACK EASTWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON BEING FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD.
THURSDAY 15 AND FRIDAY 16, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND TO ACCELERATE, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EASTWARD AND A TROUGH SOUTHWARD.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.=
NNNN

[euro6208]

05S BANSI 150112 0000 17.4S 54.9E SHEM 75 967

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 755
WTIO30 FMEE 120649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 55.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 120 SW: 90 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/12 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/13 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/13 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/14 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/14 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/15 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/16 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/17 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=5.5
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS STILL UNDERWAY BUT AT LOWER RATE. THIS
CURRENT ASSESSMENT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ASSESSMENT AND 0217Z SATCON AT 88 KT (1 MN WIND).
SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT, BANSI HAS TRACKED EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
BANSI SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK DURING THE NEXT 36H AND PROBABLY SLOW
DOWN TOMORROW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK IN THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A COL BUILDS IN ITS SOUTH, A SOUTH-EASTWARDS MOTION IS
THEN EXPECTED.
BANSI IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING AND ACCELERATING
SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNTIL SATURDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE
ON MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AS
AT LEAST 2 UPPER LEVEL CHANNELS EQUATOR-WARD AND POLEWARD TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE PERIOD. A THIRD ONE TOWARDS THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
TEMPORARILY EXIST ON TUESDAY.
ON AND AFTER THURSDAY, BANSI SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS AND KEEPS ONLY ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY OVER
LIMITED HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS.
THERE IS AN IMPORTANT LIKELIHOOD THAT A VERY DANGEROUS INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPRESENTS A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE MASCAREIGNES
WITHIN SEVERAL DAYS (FROM MONDAY TO THURSDAY).
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD THEREFORE CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.=
NNNN

[somethingfunny]

This is a beauty

[euro6208]

Category 3 on the SSHS...

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.2S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.2S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.4S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.3S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 26.2S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIX FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF 5.5 FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 05S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 05S IS
TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE. GENERALLY EASTWARD, BUT SLOWER, MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
SWITCHES OVER FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
AND ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST. TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE UKMET DIVERGES TO THE EAST AND COAMPS-TC
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER, ECMWF, GFS, AND
NAVGEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 120 TIMEFRAME AND
THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS GROUPING AS WELL AS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPXS11 PGTW 120910

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI)

B. 12/0830Z

C. 17.37S

D. 56.22E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 4.0 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[euro6208]

05S BANSI 150112 1200 17.4S 56.6E SHEM 115 937

Now equivalent to a Category 4 on the SSHS!

[mrbagyo]

nice looking cyclone.
Weather stuff

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 573
WTIO30 FMEE 130022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20142015
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 57.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 923 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/13 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/14 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/14 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/15 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/15 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/16 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=7.0-.
SATELLITE FEATURES HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST HOURS, WITH A WARMER EYE, AND A CDO MORE SYMETRIC
AND COLDER, THEN THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE LOWER LIMIT OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
DURING THE LAST HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED A LITTLE LOOPING, THEN TRACK NOW EASTWARDS.
BANSI TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING N
ORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
BANSI SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK DURING THE NEXT 36H AT A QUITE SLOW SPEED TOMORROW WITHIN A WEAK STEE
RING ENVIRONMENT.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A COL BUILDS IN ITS SO
UTH, A SOUTH-EASTWARDS MOTION IS THEN EXPECTED. BANSI IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING AND AC
CELERATING SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNTIL SATURDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE ON MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNES
DAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AS AT LEAST 2 UPPER LEVEL CHANNELS EQUATOR-WARD AND POLEWARD
TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE PERIOD. A THIRD ONE TOWARDS THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY EXIST ON TUE
SDAY.
ON AND AFTER THURSDAY, BANSI SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND KEEPS ONLY ITS POLEWAR
D OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY OVER LIMITED HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS.
THERE IS AN IMPORTANT LIKELIHOOD THAT A VERY DANGEROUS INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE REPRESENTS A POTEN
TIAL THREAT FOR THE MASCAREIGNES WITHIN SEVERAL DAYS (FROM MONDAY TO THURSDAY).
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD THEREFORE CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.
NNNN

Since the floater are stills, I've made a gif loop:

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.

[jaguarjace]

Morning view:

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.

[euro6208]

WOW! First Cat 5 in the Southern Hemisphere this year!

[euro6208]

05S BANSI 150113 1200 17.2S 57.9E SHEM 130 926

Strong category 4...

[jaguarjace]

loop during daylight hours:

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.

[jaguarjace]

loop during daylight hours:

Not an official product from SSD. I created this product for informational purposes.