SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

I'd personally give this 155 to 160 knot right now. 145 looks a little low (underestimated like Olaf 2005?)

[euro6208]

JTWC doesn't forecast anymore strengthening...



WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.2S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.1S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.2S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.7S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 169.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING SURROUNDING
A 15NM EYE. A 130719Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN A
SYMMETRIC CORE THAT SURROUNDS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AND MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 145 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, TC 17P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AND BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR RIDGE
AXIS, IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED VWS THAT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IT. TC
PAM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, TC 17P WILL COMPLETE ETT AS AN INTENSE COLD CORE
LOW. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

does not seem right, buit the pressure appears to be rising at Port Vila. Perhaps this will pas east of them

[Yellow Evan]

2015MAR13 083200 7.7 880.5 161.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.13 -84.37 EYE 19 IR N/A -17.06 -168.62 COMBO MTSAT2 33.6

[Yellow Evan]

That's odd because Efate is dead square in line to be hit by the eyewall not far off at all now.

Maybe it's an error?

[jaguarjace]

[Yellow Evan]

That 1032z frame is also 2 hours old.

[talkon]

TXPS21 KNES 131208
TCSWSP

A. 17P (PAM)

B. 13/1132Z

C. 17.6S

D. 168.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/7.5/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CDG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 6.5 WHICH INCLUDES 0.5 ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[jaguarjace]

SSD was a bit slow updating their imagery.
Here's an RBTOP enhanced loop:

[euro6208]

Landfall...145 knots sustained...

[Yellow Evan]

Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone 9m9 minutes ago Los Angeles, CA

iCyclone member in #PortVila: 944.6 mb & shifting winds 11:10 pm. Eye scraping E side of Efate. Terrror. #CyclonePAM

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Glad it wobbled east. Sadly, Port VILA and Vanuatu are on the strong side of the cyclone's core and eyewall and are thus reporting terrifying and horrible weather conditions. Weather stations, electricity, power and other communications have been cut. It could have been worse if it retained its movement which had shown a direct hit imminent for them in Port Vila. I am glad that adequate preparations have took place, according to iCyclone and other sources, however, massive destruction and devastation is expected. God Bless Vanuatu!

[euro6208]

Strongest South Pacific landfall on record? any ideas?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In terms of its current intensity personally, based on satellite estimates, I would ditch the 145 knot (270 km/h) estimate and go for 155 knots (286 km/h). Quite disappointing that JTWC has been ridiculously conservative in the basin, most especially in tracking monster VITC Eunice and STC Pam. The WMO RSMC's have done a well job!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Disappointing.

17P PAM 150313 1200 17.7S 168.7E SHEM 145 914

[cycloneye]

Disappointing.

17P PAM 150313 1200 17.7S 168.7E SHEM 145 914

Why?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Disappointing.

17P PAM 150313 1200 17.7S 168.7E SHEM 145 914

Why?

Estimate given was too low. Thus some data already supported above 150 knots... Referred to data posted by other forumers

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Glad it wobbled east. Sadly, Port VILA and Vanuatu are on the strong side of the cyclone's core and eyewall and are thus reporting terrifying and horrible weather conditions. Weather stations, electricity, power and other communications have been cut. It could have been worse if it retained its movement which had shown a direct hit imminent for them in Port Vila. I am glad that adequate preparations have took place, according to iCyclone and other sources, however, massive destruction and devastation is expected. God Bless Vanuatu!

Not N-HEM strong side of cyclone is SE in the shem.

Oh apologies. I thought it would be over the SW.. but still Vanuatu, particularly Port Vila are under the southern quadrants which would be the northern (stronger side) of the typhoon/cyclone

[Yellow Evan]

FMs is at 130 knt 10-min I think, which is around 150 knots 1-min.

Pressure if I had to guess would be in the 880's somewhere. Lower than Zoe probs IMO.

[euro6208]

JTWC never went higher than 7.0 so maybe an average of KNES's 7.5 155 knots and ADT 7.4 rounded off to 150 knots...

I'd say peak was 5 knots higher at 150 knots...