SPAC: REUBEN - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

97P INVEST 150317 0600 8.6S 167.9W SHEM 15 1010


GFS in about 5 days:


This may end up as a short-lived system.

[euro6208]

Ohhhh another one...

The more cyclones in this area, the most westerly wind burst they will produce that might spawn a monster nino this summer...

[jaguarjace]

98P INVEST 150319 1800 14.6S 177.1W SHEM 15 1010

[jaguarjace]

98P INVEST 150320 0000 15.6S 178.0W SHEM 20 1005


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 19/2226 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.3S
177.4W AT 191800 UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. ORGANISATION REMAINS
POOR AND CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSE LLCC IN THE PAST
6 TO 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND INITIALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWEST THAN GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6S 178.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. THE BROAD
CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE HOWEVER STILL REMAINS VERY
ELONGATED. A 200204Z AMSU-B SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AND A
200008Z RSCAT SHOWS A MAX OF 20 KNOTS OF WINDS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GFS model in couple days. Short-lived system.

[jaguarjace]

98P INVEST 150320 1800 19.2S 177.7W SHEM 25 1004

[jaguarjace]

98P INVEST 150321 0000 20.3S 177.6W SHEM 30 1000


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S
178.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 177.4W, APPROXIMATELY 311 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201932Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 21/0703 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 176.9W
AT 210600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY. SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND SUPPOSE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN PAST 12
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO WEST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD BY A NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND
FLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0, PAT AND
MET AGREE. THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTESIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC 22.8S 176.1E MOV SSE AT 8KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 220600 UTC 24.4S 175.2E MOV SSE AT 9KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 221800 UTC 25.7S 174.7E MOV SSE AT 8KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 26.3S 174.6E MOV SSE AT 7KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 211400 UTC.

[Yellow Evan]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 40m40 minutes ago

Just like that, #Nathan has an eye again, approaching NT:
Embedded image permalink

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS makes this a Cat2ish with a pressure around 997 mbar.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone REUBEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 41 issued 0100 UTC Sunday 22 March 2015



http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 22/0139 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE REUBEN CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 175.6W
AT 220000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
06 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
40 KNOTS BY 230000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT'
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT'
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT'
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN LAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING
TO WRAP AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12
HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65
WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 24.8S 174.8W MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 25.8S 174.5W MOV SSE AT 07KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 26.4S 174.6W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 26.6S 174.7W MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE REUBEN
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 220800 UTC.

20P REUBEN 150322 0000 23.4S 174.9W SHEM 40 993

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 MAR 2015 Time : 015200 UTC
Lat : 23:35:11 S Lon : 174:46:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 998.5mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.7 2.8

Center Temp : -72.1C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 30km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.0 degrees

[jaguarjace]

20P REUBEN 150322 0600 24.7S 173.9W SHEM 45 989