SIO: JOALANE - Post-Tropical

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91S INVEST 150327 1200 15.7S 74.6E SHEM 20 1007

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90P INVEST 150328 1200 20.4S 166.8W SHEM 25 1004

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ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/311800ZMAR2015-011800ZAPR2015//
RMKS/
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
69.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 70.9E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED, AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

91S INVEST 150401 0600 17.5S 75.0E SHEM 20 1007

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ZCZC 930
WTIO30 FMEE 011311
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13
2.A POSITION 2015/04/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 74.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/02 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/04/02 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2015/04/03 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2015/04/03 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2015/04/04 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/04/04 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=000 , LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
AN IMPLUSE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS ACCUR SINCE LAST NIGHT, DUE TO THE
IMPROVING POLAR DIVERGENCE.
THE CENTER IS CHALLING TO LOCATE, AND HAS BEEN ESTIMATED THAKS TO
DATA ASCAT OF 03H50Z AND LAST AVAILABLE MICRO-WAVES DATA ET 09H59Z.
FOR THE NEXT DAYS, LOW LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH A
WEAKENING OF THE MONSOON FLOW BECOMING MORE INDIRECT.
AVAILABLE NWP SHOW A GLOBAL WESTWARD TRACK, WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING, WITH A DISSIPATING DEPRESSION NORTH TO MASCAREIGNES
ISLANDS.
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=
NNNN

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ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZAPR2015//
RMKS/
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 74.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 70.0E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH STRAIGHT LINE CONVERGENCE CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A
021343Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), HOWEVER, DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE, AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

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91S INVEST 150405 0600 15.8S 65.5E SHEM 25 1004

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ZCZC 927
WTIO30 FMEE 051314
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13
2.A POSITION 2015/04/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 64.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/06 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/04/06 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATIONS REGARDS TO
DIURNAL CYCLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE LATEST MW IMAGERY SUGGEST A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE STRUCTURE.
THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NOW ALTHOUGH
MONSOON INFLOW IS INDIRECT AND A SLIGHT EASTERLY CONSTRAINT MAY EXIST
NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AT LEAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS OR WESTWARDS AS A TRANSIENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PASS
TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND, THE RIDGE WEAKEN AND A BROAD BAROMETRIC COL
SHOULD TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF 20S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIE WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND COULD DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN EGDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW BY THAT TIME.
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES (CF ENSEMBLE FORECAST FROM
ECMWF SHOWING SOME STRONG SPREAD) ON THE TIMING AND THE LOCALIZATION
OF THE CHANGE IN THE TRACK.=
NNNN

[euro6208]

Major cyclone...

WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.2S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.3S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.5S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.3S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.8S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.9S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED EVEN AS
THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT ON THE 052208Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10
DEGREES EAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 22S IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR.
CONCURRENTLY, A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH
WILL INFLUENCE THE STORM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RENDERING 22S IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY SITUATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE NER WILL EMERGE AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHEASTWARD. AS
TC 22S TRANSITIONS BETWEEN TWO DRIVING FORCES, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 96, AFTER ITS EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
AFTERWARDS, THE VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, CAUSING GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, TENTATIVELY LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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ZCZC 008
WTIO30 FMEE 061315
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/13/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
2.A POSITION 2015/04/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 62.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SATELLITE PATTERN HAS LITTLE CHANGE.
THE ENVIRONEMENTAL CONDITIONS OF THE SYSTEM ARE RATHER FAVORABLE :
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS NORTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE. THE UPPER
LEVEL VWS IS WEAK, DIRECTION EAST-SOUTH-EAST AT ABOUT 10KT , AND IS
ALMOST OFFSET BY THE MOVEMENT.
FOR THE NEXT 24H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON A GLOBALLY WESTWARD PATH,
OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ON
WEDNESDAY, IT SHOULD BEND SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD, IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTHWARD, AND A BAROMETRIC COL SOUTHWARD.
ON THIS PATH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT. THIS FORECAST
IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.=
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

This should be an MTS. ADT is at 3.4.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 APR 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 13:39:17 S Lon : 62:18:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 995.0mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.3 3.8

Center Temp : -81.2C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 63km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.1 degrees

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 912
WTIO30 FMEE 070105
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/13/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 62.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/11 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/04/12 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. ON THE LATEST
IMAGE, A CURVED BAND WRAPS AT 0.8AO AROUND THE CENTER (DT AT 3.5). FT
IS RETAINED AT 3.0 DUE TO CONSTRAINT. THE ANALYZED INTENSITY IS ABOVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS BASED ON SATCON AT 2218Z (MADE WITH AN AMSU
ESTIMATE FROM A GOOD N19 PASS) AT 58 KT (1 MIN WIND).
JOALANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW: ONE FROM
THE NORTH-WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND ANOTHER
FROM THE EAST STEERED BY A STR LOCATED NEAR 25S/60E. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL STEERING FLOW SEEMS A BIT STRONGER CURRENTLY AS A SMALL
EASTWARDS DRIFT OF THE CENTER HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE 18Z.
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A LARGE BAROMETRIC COL SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE SOUTH OF JOALANE (SOUTH OF 25S) AND THE MID-LEVEL HIGHS SHOULD
SHIFT ALONG A MERIDIAN AXIS LOCATED BETWEEN 70E AND 75E. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A POLEWARDS TRACK OF JOALANE WITHIN A
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, MAJOR CHANGES HAS OCCURRED IN THE
FORECAST TRACK: THE 3 MOST RELIABLE MODELS (GFS, EURO AND UKMO) ARE
NOW ON A CLEAR BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARDS A SOLUTION SHOWN BY GFS SINCE
MANY RUNS NOW ... WITH A SOUTHWARDS TURN THAT SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF
60E AND A SOUTHWARDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK POTENTIALLY VERY
DANGEROUS FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND ..
THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THIS THREE MODELS
(MORE TO THE EAST FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS AS THOSE MODELS STILL
ANALYSED THE SYSTEM TOO MUCH WEST). THE MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE COMPOSED
BY THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST FROM ECMWF (EPS), GFS (GEFS) AND UKMO
(MOGREPS) FROM THE 12Z RUN, SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITIES AROUND THE
CURRENT EXPECTED SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND JOALANE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE : THE SYSTEM MOVES GRADUALLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE (THE
MAIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-EAST THURSDAY). SST
ARE CONDUCIVE.
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE ... AND JOALANE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS CYCLONE LATER THIS
WEEK .. THEREFORE, RODRIGUES INHABITANTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.=
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Raw ADT at 6.3 from CMISS.

80 knots might be too low.

[jaguarjace]

ZCZC 161
WTIO30 FMEE 091308
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/13/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (JOALANE)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 65.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 500 SW: 280 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/10 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/10 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/04/11 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/04/11 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/12 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/04/12 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/13 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/04/14 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 AND CI=4.0
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE INNER CORE
STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE ACCORDING TO CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(DESPITE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON) AND
MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (CF. SSMI AT 1039Z). RUNNING 3H MEAN DT IS AT 4.0
(MORE OR LESS) SINCE ALMOST 22Z ... SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW
PUT AT 4.0 ... 60 KT 10 MIN WINDS.
JOALANE IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY AND AS THE REASON OF THIS
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD, IT PUTS STRONG
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXPECTED RE-INTENSIFICATION SHOWN ON THE
OFFICIAL TRACK. TO THE SLIGHT NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT (ANALYZED BY THE
CIMSS) AND MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, ONE MAY ADD THE NEGATIVE FEED-BACK
OF THE SST AS JOALANE HAS COME-BACK, THIS MORNING, OVER ITS LOCATION
THREE DAYS AGO.
AS JOALANE IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY OF THIS AREA AND ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, JOALANE HAS STILL THE
POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY UP TO FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT TIME, IT SHOULD WEAKEN CLEARLY, UNDER THE NEGATIVE EFFECT
OF BOTH STRENGTHENING VWS AND LOWERING OF THE OHC.
JOALANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TOWARDS A BAROMETRIC
COL AND UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IN
ITS EAST. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT COULD SLOW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ABOUT THIS TRACK AMONG THE LAST AVAILABLE
NWP MODELS.=
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

22S JOALANE 150409 1800 17.5S 66.0E SHEM 75 967

[Hurricaneman]

Joalane taken since the iss with in the background the sunrise Terry W. Virts @AstroTerry 2 hours
http://www.scoopnest.com/user/AstroTerr ... 0749662208

This is a beautiful pic