SIO: IKOLA - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:45 pm

SAB and SSD are at 6.0, so why 95 knots?
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#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 06, 2015 9:19 pm

2015APR07 013000 6.1 941.7 117.4 6.1 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -26.78 -77.55 EYE/P -99 IR N/A -17.28 -92.56 SPRL MET7 45.1
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#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 06, 2015 9:21 pm

JTWC is relying too much on their own Dvorak IMO.

TPXS10 PGTW 070010

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 16.90S

D. 92.15E

E. TWO/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 11NM MG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. PT YIELDS
A 5.5. MET YIELDS A 5.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1855Z 15.92S 91.10E ATMS
06/2015Z 16.17S 91.55E MMHS
06/2035Z 16.18S 91.43E SSMI


UEHARA
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#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 06, 2015 9:22 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 APR 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 17:16:37 S Lon : 92:33:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 945.9mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.3 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MET7
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Re: SIO: IKOLA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:41 pm

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ikola
Issued at 8:34 am WST Tuesday 7 April 2015.

Image

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ikola at 8:00 am WST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 175 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.8 degrees South, 91.9 degrees East , 740 kilometres southwest of Cocos Island .
Movement: southeast at 22 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ikola continues to move over open water well to the southwest of the Cocos Islands. The system is forecast to weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours.
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Re: SIO: IKOLA - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Apr 07, 2015 3:45 am

21S IKOLA 150407 0600 18.0S 93.4E SHEM 95 952
Image
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