SIO: QUANG - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

98S INVEST 150427 0600 11.8S 113.4E SHEM 15 1009

[Alyono]

been officially named by BOM

[Yellow Evan]

Appears to have blown up.

[HurricaneBill]

I can't remember the last time there was a "Q" storm.

[Yellow Evan]

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 109.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 109.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.5S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.7S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.9S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.3S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.1S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 109.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
15-NM EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE ( 05 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 24S IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE
VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36,
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

This is shaping up to be a major model bust. Instead of being sheared apart, the upper winds have steered Quang toward Australia. Landfall may occur in just 12 hours, about 36 hours sooner than the EC has been saying

[Yellow Evan]

Why so few posters in here?

Anyhow, ADt's numbers falling:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 MAY 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 21:13:20 S Lon : 113:14:38 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 3.9 3.7

Center Temp : -74.5C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.5 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (QUANG) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 112.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.8S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.8S 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 112.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (QUANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND CONSENSUS
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO
40 KNOT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION. TC QUANG IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 24S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
WILL FURTHER DECAY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN