WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway for Typhoon Dolphin. 85GHz below is from 10:14 UTC 05/16.

(image)

Well, there go the chances for C5.

It will be a category 5, hence the agreement with models. Conditions support a cat 5. Maybe next warning it will be. However, there may be some weakening but brief, but wait for it go bonkers, you meet the WPac. They make surprise rapid intensification as strong as it can get (see Nuri/Vongfong 2014) and sustain that intensity over favorable contions then finally gradually weaken. IMO we could see at least 150 knots sustained

[xtyphooncyclonex]

EWRC now taking effect through the core of the typhoon, seen through the waning convection and structure. Weakening may be relatively quick. Maybe seeing an impressive visible when I wake up later in the morning.

[TheAustinMan]

07W DOLPHIN 150516 1800 17.2N 139.8E WPAC 140 918
... and thus we have a third tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific this year breaking the 135kt threshold.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 21:00 UTC warning of SuperTyphoon Dolphin is up to 140kts and maybe has peaked although they have 145kts as such.Dolphin continues to add to the ACE count (98.1325 units) for WPAC in 2015 and is on the virge of reaching 100 units before May 31rst and is #1 on that category.

[euro6208]

Wow

Even the 3rd cat 5 in 1997's record breaking total of 10 cat 5's didn't appear until July. We are still in May!

[Yellow Evan]

I will say I could not disagree more with going 140.

JTWC is nice though, and sometimes it's good to give breaks to tropical cyclones.

[Cunxi Huang]

I will say I could not disagree more with going 140.

JTWC is nice though, and sometimes it's good to give breaks to tropical cyclones.

I can't believe Dolphin has 140kt/918mb under a dvorak of T6.0/7.0
go to see 1732z MTSAT and keep in mind: how come WMG eye plus unqualified black ring can make a typhoon 140kt?
For me, this JTWC's evaluation is unreasonable.
NMC(CMA) and RSMC JMA were not agree with JTWC's 140kt. Their evaluation were close to T6.5.
So....

[Yellow Evan]

I will say I could not disagree more with going 140.

JTWC is nice though, and sometimes it's good to give breaks to tropical cyclones.

I can't believe Dolphin has 140kt/918mb under a dvorak of T6.0/7.0
go to see 1732z MTSAT and keep in mind: how come WMG eye plus unqualified black ring can make a typhoon 140kt?
For me, this JTWC's evaluation is unreasonable.
NMC(CMA) and RSMC JMA were not agree with JTWC's 140kt. Their evaluation were close to T6.5.
So....

It's undergoing an ERC so Dvorak can underestimate those slightly. But still. The storm got 3 7.0's at 12z, and the JTWc usually upgraded to a Cat 5 9 hours after that.

[dexterlabio]

It's undergoing an ERC so Dvorak can underestimate those slightly. But still. The storm got 3 7.0's at 12z, and the JTWc usually upgraded to a Cat 5 9 hours after that.

Agreed. Plus the look of Dolphin at its peak earlier looked better than a few Cat5's that we had, IMO.

[cycloneye]

WPAC ACE reaches 100+ (100.93)

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Dolphin is now at it. With its more developed core eye and outflow, it is a raging category 5 typhoon. A little more strengthening can happen before it starts to weakens as it moves into cooler waters in the next 24-48hrs.




Synopsis on Dolphin: http://goo.gl/E0egce


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
West Pac Typhoon ACE has passed 100 for year ... record pace. Not unexpected w/strong El Nino brewing.
Annual avg = 300
Typical YTD = 20

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I will say I could not disagree more with going 140.

JTWC is nice though, and sometimes it's good to give breaks to tropical cyclones.

I can't believe Dolphin has 140kt/918mb under a dvorak of T6.0/7.0
go to see 1732z MTSAT and keep in mind: how come WMG eye plus unqualified black ring can make a typhoon 140kt?
For me, this JTWC's evaluation is unreasonable.
NMC(CMA) and RSMC JMA were not agree with JTWC's 140kt. Their evaluation were close to T6.5.
So....

IMO intensity estimate is unreasonable. In fact, I'd go higher and say 145 kts for Dolphin, maybe 110 kts for JMA

Keep in mind, winds almost always lag with satellite presentation. Earlier we got a Dvorak rating of 7.0 and we got a scatterometer pass of 141 kts, which is more important and reliable than the former.

[euro6208]

Down to 130 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR
43//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07W DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AFTER ITS
EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS A
VERY INTENSE CYCLONE AS STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A 25-NM, ALBEIT MORE RAGGED, EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND POISED TO CROSS INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 07W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
AIRMASS AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH THE INTENSITY DROPPING TO 70
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING ETT
AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL BE REDUCED TO A STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LEADING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Never seen this before. It's literally off the scale in TPW at peak... in any TC's!

[euro6208]

I will say I could not disagree more with going 140.

JTWC is nice though, and sometimes it's good to give breaks to tropical cyclones.

I can't believe Dolphin has 140kt/918mb under a dvorak of T6.0/7.0
go to see 1732z MTSAT and keep in mind: how come WMG eye plus unqualified black ring can make a typhoon 140kt?
For me, this JTWC's evaluation is unreasonable.
NMC(CMA) and RSMC JMA were not agree with JTWC's 140kt. Their evaluation were close to T6.5.
So....

Would you say the same for atlantic storms?

they look worser than this but because they have recon, their storms are stronger than what dvorak says. We must stop relying on this...

If you can't believe this was stronger, how about weaker than the real intensity?

It's astonishing many of our typhoons at 7.0 only peaks at 140 knots just because that's the number 7.0 allows...How about 145, 150, or even 155 knots?

Also I can't believe the most strongest basin in the world hasn't had regular recon since 1987...

[1900hurricane]

Crazy tornado chase 1900 you nailed it.

Hey thanks!

In my period of study (1975 to present day, so keep in mind the domain is a little restricted), this is the first May to feature an intensity estimate of T7.0 for two separate typhoons. 2008 was next closest with JMA T7.0 Rammasun (105 kt) and JMA/JTWC T6.5 Nakri (100 kt/125 kt, respectively).

[Yellow Evan]

I will say I could not disagree more with going 140.

JTWC is nice though, and sometimes it's good to give breaks to tropical cyclones.

I can't believe Dolphin has 140kt/918mb under a dvorak of T6.0/7.0
go to see 1732z MTSAT and keep in mind: how come WMG eye plus unqualified black ring can make a typhoon 140kt?
For me, this JTWC's evaluation is unreasonable.
NMC(CMA) and RSMC JMA were not agree with JTWC's 140kt. Their evaluation were close to T6.5.
So....

Would you say the same for atlantic storms?

they look worser than this but because they have recon, their storms are stronger than what dvorak says. We must stop relying on this...

If you can't believe this was stronger, how about weaker than the real intensity?

It's astonishing many of our typhoons at 7.0 only peaks at 140 knots just because that's the number 7.0 allows...How about 145, 150, or even 155 knots?

Also I can't believe the most strongest basin in the world hasn't had regular recon since 1987...

Yes, I would.

Do we have any confirmed evidence that ATL storms are stronger than Dvorak estimates due to Recon? I agree it's possible it was 145+ knts, but we don't have any conclusive evidence beyond 135 or 140.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded from SuperTyphoon status DOLPHIN with 125kts as maximun winds is moving north and still hanging there but as it moves more north and then northeast colder waters and heavy shear awaits.It may buckle the jet stream downstream to maybe affect the pattern in North America.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Dolphin looks like it started its weakening trend. It will gradually weaken into a extra-tropical cyclone by later this week. It will be passing by the unpopulated island of Iwo To and the populated island of Ogasawara, Tokyo.



Synopsis on Dolphin: http://goo.gl/3uw6eu


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products