EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

talkon · #401 Postby **talkon** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:41 am

It should be legit. I copied it from the raw data at http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/tx/?C=M;O=D

#402 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:41 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I guess it's legit. Wonder if this gets thrown out or not.

01/0600 UTC 15.4N 119.5W T6.0/6.0 ANDRES -- East Pacific

Even if they were not sure about the convection, microwave imagery showed a completed strong eyewall earlier.

Based on appearance, it's probs 135 knots.

talkon · #403 Postby **talkon** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:42 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 15:21:26 N Lon : 119:26:05 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.5mb/127.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +11.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.4 degrees

****************************************************

#404 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:43 am

Eye, 11.3 C. Cat 5 worthy IMO.

With older versions of ADT, we'd be around 7.0.

#405 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:45 am

NHC taking their time on the ATCF.

Wonder if they're debating on whether to toss out SAB.

#406 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:49 am

Yellow Evan wrote:NHC taking their time on the ATCF.

Wonder if they're debating on whether to toss out SAB.

TAFB isn't out as well.

#407 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:51 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:NHC taking their time on the ATCF.

Wonder if they're debating on whether to toss out SAB.

TAFB isn't out as well.

That could be why.

This whole thing is messed up.

#408 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:52 am

ANDRES, D,
EP, 01, 2015060106, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1195W, 125, 938, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 50, 1009, 270, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,
EP, 01, 2015060106, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1195W, 125, 938, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 30, 25, 30, 1009, 270, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,

talkon · #409 Postby **talkon** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:53 am

06:30 frame is out.

#410 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:53 am

06:30 frame looks a solid T6.5 to me.

#411 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:54 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:NHC taking their time on the ATCF.

Wonder if they're debating on whether to toss out SAB.

TAFB isn't out as well.

That could be why.

This whole thing is messed up.

The MINIMUM has to be 135kts. Higher than both ADT and SAB.

This is Celia 2010

#412 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:57 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
TAFB isn't out as well.

That could be why.

This whole thing is messed up.

The MINIMUM has to be 135kts. Higher than both ADT and SAB.

Appearance and what the data supports do not go hand and hand always.

#413 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:59 am

Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.

#414 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:02 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.

But that's because Celia was a different, annular cane'. Each storm is different with different wind spans/radii. Compact storms usually have consolidated, smaller convection fields yet strong output nonetheless.

#415 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:25 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.

But that's because Celia was a different, annular cane'. Each storm is different with different wind spans/radii. Compact storms usually have consolidated, smaller convection fields yet strong output nonetheless.

I agree with you, but Dvorak does not work that way.

#416 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:26 am

Eye now 12C.

xtyphooncyclonex · #417 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 2:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.

But that's because Celia was a different, annular cane'. Each storm is different with different wind spans/radii. Compact storms usually have consolidated, smaller convection fields yet strong output nonetheless.

Celia wasn't even close to annular lol

#418 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:09 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Regarding Celia, the white band ring is much larger than Andres.

But that's because Celia was a different, annular cane'. Each storm is different with different wind spans/radii. Compact storms usually have consolidated, smaller convection fields yet strong output nonetheless.

[img][/img]

Celia wasn't even close to annular lol

xtyphooncyclonex · #419 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:16 am

Actually annular storms not only have lack of banding and excellent symmetry, but you would also need a "donut tire" look in the eye

#420 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:20 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote::uarrow: Actually annular storms not only have lack of banding and excellent symmetry, but you would also need a "donut tire" look in the eye

They can have clear eyes.

EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

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