ARABIAN SEA: ASHOBAA - Tropical Storm

[Alyono]

IMD back to severely underestimating intensity

why do I get the feeling this will be another Yemyin flap where IMD refused to upgrade despite there being a well defined eye on microwave

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUN 2015 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 17:02:48 N Lon : 68:01:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 995.3mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.3

Center Temp : -66.0C Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CD

[Yellow Evan]

07/2030 UTC 16.6N 68.1E T2.0/2.0 01A -- Arabian Sea

Hmm, I'd go 40 knots based on RapidScat. Have a feeling the wrong pattern is being used.

[Alyono]

I'd say it is a T 2.5. However, the RapidScat data indicate that winds are running above Dvoraks

[Alyono]

for comedic purposes only

IMD has 20-25 kt winds as the current intensity

[Yellow Evan]

http://imageshack.com/a/img901/1747/vWF86b.png

18 z is a cat5 MB core but stamped at 87 knts max

Global mdoels do not have the ability to accurately detect winds, just pressure.

[Yellow Evan]

Both HWRF and GFDL blow this up I think.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUN 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 17:17:29 N Lon : 67:54:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 990.7mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 3.1

Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

[jaguarjace]

01A ONE 150608 0000 17.7N 67.7E IO 40 993


Meteosat-10 / Meteosat-7


Meteosat-7

[Yellow Evan]

ADT's rising

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUN 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 17:50:46 N Lon : 67:36:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 990.5mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.4 3.5

Center Temp : -77.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[galaxy401]

Very heavy convection though it does look a little sheared based on the microwave. I'm taking it that the shear is supposed to lessen.

[Yellow Evan]

Very heavy convection though it does look a little sheared based on the microwave. I'm taking it that the shear is supposed to lessen.

Looks like Ana last year in the CPAC with that CCC pattern.

[Yellow Evan]

08/0230 UTC 17.6N 67.3E T2.5/2.5 01A -- Arabian Sea

[jaguarjace]

Meteosat-7 from 0400 UTC.

[jaguarjace]

Time of issue: 1100 hours IST
Dated: 08.06.2015
Bulletin No.: ARB01/2015/05

Sub: Deep Depression intensified into a Cyclonic Storm (ASHOBAA) over eastcentral Arabian Sea.
(Pre-cyclone watch for Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts)

The deep depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea has moved north-northwestwards during past 6 hours and intensified further into a cyclonic storm (ASHOBAA), and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of 08th June 2015 near latitude 17.90 N and longitude 67.20 E, about 590 km westsouthwest of Mumbai, 470 km southwest of Veraval and 960 km east-southeast of Masirah Island (Oman). It would move initially north-northwestwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 36 hours.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/indian.pdf

[salmon123]

Salaam to All experts ,
Kindly tell me what probability of 01A to change track N.N.East ? And as per Canadian Model it may die B4 landfall

[jaguarjace]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUN 2015 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 18:43:02 N Lon : 66:12:04 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 983.0mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -69.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[Alyono]

talk about severe flooding. We could see more than 18 inches of rain in Muscat and other desert areas

[euro6208]

Looks like Oman's largest city might be in the crosshair. Still far out so let's see what happens...

[Alyono]

12Z MU intensified this all the way until it hits Muscat. Seems we won't have dry air issues

TPW loops also indicates dry air may not be a major problem

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

northern Oman sure won't be a desert by the end of the week. It may be transformed into a swamp