EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Why haven't the winds been raised?


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 131738
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...CARLOS STILL MEANDERING SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Carlos was located
by satellite and radar data near latitude 15.0 North, longitude
100.0 West. Carlos has been erratically moving during the past few
hours, but is expected to move toward the northwest near 2 mph (4
km/h) by later today. A west-northwest to northwest motion at an
increasing forward speed is expected over the next day or two.
Carlos is expected to move nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico
for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast over the next couple of
days.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by tonight or Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area by Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on
Monday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across
the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally
higher amounts around 6 inches. The states of Mexico affected
include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF is probs overdoing the upwelling.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 131818
TCSENP

A. 03E (CARLOS)

B. 13/1745Z

C. 15.0N

D. 99.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTRAL FEATURE EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE OF MEDIUM GRAY GIVES
AN EYE NUMBER OF 4.5 WITH AN OFF-WHITE EYE AND A BLACK RING YIELDING AN
EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +.5 FOR A FINAL DT OF 5.0. MET IS 4.5 BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS DUE TO 6 HOUR DT OF 4.5 NOT ALLOWING T-NO TO INCREASE MORE
THAN 1.0 IN 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/1255Z 15.0N 100.0W WINDSAT
13/1303Z 14.8N 100.0W SSMIS


...LIDDICK

I did a fix and got 5.5 PT is 5.0 (OW eye/B cloud tops +.5 adjustment, plus LG ring) to me, FT is 5.5 break constraints.

[cycloneye]

Up to 75kts.

EP, 03, 2015061318, , BEST, 0, 151N, 999W, 75, 978, HU

[Yellow Evan]

I'm getting a 5.5 when I do this with eye pattern, but constrains are coming into play.

TAFB also 4.5.

EP, 03, 201506131745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1510N, 9997W, , 3, 77, 2, 979, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SS, VI, 5, 4545 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, eye beginning to clear out and becoming aparent

Eye also looks open on MX radar.

[Yellow Evan]

Always good intensification-wise to see the normally conservative LGEM on top of the SHIPS.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOS EP032015 06/13/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 81 80 81 75 71 66 57 50 44 41 37
V (KT) LAND 75 79 81 80 81 75 71 66 57 50 44 41 37
V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 84 87 89 90 90 90 88 85 82 79 75
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 8 9 7 6 4 1 4 8 11 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 3 3
SHEAR DIR 56 46 52 57 80 50 87 67 358 212 246 214 222
SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 163 162 161 159 160 162 158 155 152 150 144
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9
TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 66 66 65 62 61 59 57 58 59 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 13 14 10 9 8 5 3 2 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR 23 37 38 24 15 18 6 15 -5 6 -17 15 0
200 MB DIV 56 52 47 45 62 27 44 24 -2 -1 -24 1 -18
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -1 2 1 0 0 -1 0 1 4
LAND (KM) 174 157 140 134 128 135 69 61 23 12 56 104 90
LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.2
LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.2 100.5 101.0 101.4 102.3 103.2 104.2 105.1 105.7 106.0 106.7 107.6
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 43 40 38 36 39 45 27 14 7 2 15 20 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -6. -7. -13. -16. -18. -22. -24. -26. -25. -26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 6. 0. -4. -9. -18. -25. -31. -34. -38.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/13/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Soon. But it needs to start moving soon. Even though the OHC is high under neath it, upwelling can still induce weakening.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/LErVjDz.jpg

Soon. But it needs to start moving soon. Even though the OHC is high under neath it, upwelling can still induce weakening.

Appears to be drifting NNE. I see no signs of upwelling yet.

[cycloneye]

Puerto Vallarta or maybe a little bit south from that tourism city may be the landfall.

[Kingarabian]

http://i.imgur.com/LErVjDz.jpg

Soon. But it needs to start moving soon. Even though the OHC is high under neath it, upwelling can still induce weakening.

Appears to be drifting NNE. I see no signs of upwelling yet.

It's moving more than Blanca ever did in its early stages.

[Yellow Evan]

Puerto Vallarta or maybe a little bit south from that tourism city may be the landfall.

http://i.imgur.com/XzXF1ei.png

I'm thinking central Jalisco and that is where Josh probs needs to go when he chases this if he does.

[Kingarabian]

Puerto Vallarta or maybe a little bit south from that tourism city may be the landfall.

If it makes that north then I think Texas will be under a severe drought threat as you'll have moisture from Carlos combining with 91L.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/LErVjDz.jpg

Soon. But it needs to start moving soon. Even though the OHC is high under neath it, upwelling can still induce weakening.

Appears to be drifting NNE. I see no signs of upwelling yet.

It's moving more than Blanca ever did in its early stages.

Yea, def, and SSt's are just as warm and OHC values are just as high.

OHC didn't become a problem till Blanca was a mid to upper level Cat 4.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUN 2015 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 15:02:06 N Lon : 100:07:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 987.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.3 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -24.0C Cloud Region Temp : -65.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

OHC didn't become a problem till Blanca was a mid to upper level Cat 4.

Main caveat I think, will be shear.

[Yellow Evan]

OHC didn't become a problem till Blanca was a mid to upper level Cat 4.

Main caveat I think, will be shear.[/quote}

Dry air actually. Shear is rapidly declining.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUN 2015 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 15:03:02 N Lon : 100:02:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 986.1mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.3 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -25.8C Cloud Region Temp : -64.0C

[cycloneye]

Make landfall just south of Puerto Vallarta.


HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015


Satellite images show that Carlos is becoming stronger. The eye is
becoming better defined, with a more symmetric appearance on the
latest infrared pictures. Radar data also shows a more complete
eyewall, although it is still open on the north side at times.
Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB support an intensity of 75 kt for the
initial wind speed.

Over the past 24 hours, Carlos has drifted northeastward toward a
weakness in the mid-level ridge over Mexico related to a trough over
the Gulf of Mexico. All models continue to insist that the ridge
will strengthen soon, forcing Carlos more toward the west-northwest
or northwest over the next couple of days. The ridge is expected
to weaken again due to a trough over northwestern Mexico, which
should cause Carlos to turn more to northwest by late Monday.
However, since any significant westward motion has yet to
materialize, the guidance continues to show a greater threat to
Mexico, with many models now having a landfall within a few days
time. Thus, the NHC forecast is moved to the right in agreement with
the model consensus. Although the center is still offshore of
Mexico through 36 hours, the hurricane-force wind radii are too
close for comfort, and therefore the government of Mexico has issued
a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast.

Microwave data show that the low- and mid-level circulations of
Carlos remain a little displaced from one another due to
northeasterly shear. However, this shear is forecast to get rather
light over the next 24 hours while the hurricane moves over waters
near 30C. It appears that the environment overall is becoming more
supportive of significant strengthening than earlier anticipated,
assuming that Carlos moves as forecast and does not suffer from its
own cold wake. This favorable environment is also reflected in the
SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 30 percent chance of a
30 kt increase over the next 24 hours. Thus, the NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one, above most of the guidance, and is
closest to the LGEM model. The intensity forecast at 72 hours and
beyond is quite uncertain since it depends on exactly how much land
interaction occurs with Carlos.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 100.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.6N 100.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.1N 101.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 102.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 103.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 21.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 18/1800Z 23.0N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

Could not agree more on the forecast track.