EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Eyewall opening up on MX radar.

[Kingarabian]

Eyewall opening up on MX radar.

Shear still present.

[Yellow Evan]

Eyewall opening up on MX radar.

Shear still present.

That or it's dry air.

[Alyono]

or there is upwelling. This thing has been stationary for days

[Yellow Evan]

or there is upwelling. This thing has been stationary for days

Not quite stationary.

It's eyewall opened up before any warming of cloud tops, so that's not an indication of upwelling.

[zeehag]

ogodwegonnadie..please keep this under 2 for us, PLEASE!!!!!
i am 19.15 north and 104.5 west..sounds like hitting us dead on.....
please send salvors to marina in isla navidad......
willadvise as to status after death by storm. thankyou.
please make it go away

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 132337
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...OUTER BANDS OF CARLOS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 100.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to west of Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 100.0 West. Carlos is drifting
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Carlos is expected to turn
toward the northwest by early Sunday. A west-northwest to northwest
motion at an increasing forward speed is expected late Sunday into
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos is expected to
approach the coast of southwestern Mexico late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
late on Monday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across
the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with locally
higher amounts around 6 inches. The states of Mexico affected
include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Eye mostly closed again. I'd like a black ring before I think it is higher than 75-80 knots.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Carlos has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery at the
moment. While an eye occasionally appears, the surrounding
convection is asymmetric with little convection to the northwest of
the eye. This asymmetry is also seen in data from the Mexican
radar at Acapulco, which shows strong bands to the east and weak
bands to the west of the center. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB remain 77 kt, so the initial intensity remains 75
kt.

The initial motion is 345/2. Water vapor imagery suggests that the
forecast mid to upper-level ridge is now developing over central
Mexico. This should cause Carlos to turn northwestward or
west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After a couple
of days, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as
a mid to upper-level trough drops southward across northwestern
Mexico. This should result in Carlos turning more northward on the
east side of the trough. While the dynamical models generally
agree on the overall pattern, there is significant disagreement on
whether Carlos will make landfall in Mexico. The GFS and ECMWF
models call for the center to turn northward quickly enough to make
landfall in the Manzanillo-Cabo Corrientes area. On the other hand,
the Canadian, UKMET, and NAVGEM models keep the cyclone offshore.
The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track,
generally follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions, showing a landfall near
Cabo Corrientes in about 72 hours and a second landfall by 120 hours
in northwestern Mexico.

Vertical shear is diminishing over Carlos, and the system is
expected to remain over warm water until landfall. This should
allow continued strengthening until landfall. However, the
intensity guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and Carlos'
struggles to maintain an eyewall suggest some negative factor at
work such as dry air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is
slightly weaker than the previous forecast in calling for a peak
intensity of 90 kt in about 36 hours. Landfall in western Mexico
should cause considerable weakening and disruption of the
circulation, and thus the intensity forecast show significant
weakening after 48 hours. The intensity forecast is of low
confidence due to the uncertainly in the amount of land interaction
and why Carlos is currently struggling to intensify.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 100.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.9N 100.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 21.5N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Looks to be a bit of shear and dry air. North side looks lousy right now.

[Yellow Evan]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1h1 hour ago

Hurricane Carlos stuck ... not moving much. Doubting much more intensification until it does.
Upwelling.

I doubt it since the north side is struggling and the storm came from the S, where whatever upwelling there is would be coming from there.

[1900hurricane]

I could buy some northerly shear impacting Carlos, but I wouln't rule out upwelling causing issues either. Carlos is located near the southeastern side of a subtropical ridge, which would be the cause of any shear impacting the system. While the shear might be relatively light, it might have some dry air with it from the ridge's subsidence. Also, the area of Mexico north of the system features the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, which contains the highest mountains in North America south of the Yukon, so any downsloping off these mountains could be contributing to additional dry air. At the very least, outflow to the north is very restricted right now. Like I said though, upwelling could be contributing too. The waters are fairly shallow close to the coast, so it wouldn't take too much for the warm water to be depleted.



*EDIT: forgot about that trench there, so the water really isn't all that shallow, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see some pretty notable upwelling occurring.

[Yellow Evan]

I could buy some northerly shear impacting Carlos, but I wouln't rule out upwelling causing issues either. Carlos is located near the southeastern side of a subtropical ridge, which would be the cause of any shear impacting the system. While the shear might be relatively light, it might have some dry air with it from the ridge's subsidence. Also, the area of Mexico north of the system features the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, which contains the highest mountains in North America south of the Yukon, so any downsloping off these mountains could be contributing to additional dry air. At the very least, outflow to the north is very restricted right now. Like I said though, upwelling could be contributing too. The waters are fairly shallow close to the coast, so it wouldn't take too much for the warm water to be depleted.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif

OHC is also high near the coast.

I agree now there's probs some upwelling, but the main cause is dry air IMO, followed by shear. It's mixing out the dry air, but it's preventing it from blowing up IMO that it otherwise would do when shear subsides. Though I expect the N outflow to improve when it moves WNW.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS brings Carlos onshore in 18 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks beyond horrible, with its outflow going backwards. I'm really starting to question this storm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ugly hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

Ugly hurricane

Understatement of the year.

[Hurricaneman]

Ugly hurricane

Understatement of the year.

upwelling will do that to a hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

Ugly hurricane

Understatement of the year.

upwelling will do that to a hurricane

It's IMO a combination of a few things here. Def dry air and maybe wind shear.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUN 2015 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 15:17:32 N Lon : 100:04:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 986.7mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.1 2.9

Center Temp : -44.1C Cloud Region Temp : -46.0C