EPAC: CARLOS - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe 55-60 kts, not 75 kts. But IMHO this could be the season's third major

[Yellow Evan]

I'd put this at 65. It at least looks like a hurricane on radar.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'd put this at 65. It at least looks like a hurricane on radar.

Even TS have eyes on radar, see Jangmi 2014

[Yellow Evan]

I'd put this at 65. It at least looks like a hurricane on radar.

Even TS have eyes on radar, see Jangmi 2014

Not only that it have an eye, it has a semi-solid structure.

This storm def was 75 earlier, and I don't think the winds have been able to catch up that fast.

[Yellow Evan]

What world are we in?


000
WTPZ33 KNHC 140539
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 100.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 100.2 West. Carlos is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Carlos is
expected to turn toward the northwest later tonight. A west-
northwest to northwest motion at an increasing forward speed
is expected later today into Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Carlos is expected to approach the coast of southwestern
Mexico late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
late on Monday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce 6 to 10 inches of rain
across the southwestern coast of Mexico through Tuesday with maximum
totals of 15 inches possible. The states of Mexico affected
include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

The satellite presentation of Carlos has deteriorated overnight,
with a decrease of inner-core deep convection and less well-defined
convective banding features. An eye is no longer present on
satellite images, and only about half of an eyewall was seen in the
Acapulco radar data. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and using a
blend of final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB the current
intensity is set at 70 kt. Given that the hurricane has been over
the same general area for over a day, it is likely that the cyclone
is being influenced by upwelled and cooled ocean waters. This has
probably contributed to the weakening, as was also seen with
slow-moving Hurricane Blanca over a week ago. The
north-northeasterly shear that had been affecting the system has
lessened, and the shear should remain fairly weak for the next few
days. Assuming that Carlos will be moving away from its cool wake
soon, restrengthening should begin later today. The official
intensity forecast is below the previous one, but above the
available guidance. The intensity forecast in the latter part of
the forecast period is highly uncertain since it depends on the
extent to which the circulation will interact with the Mexican
landmass in 1 to 3 days.

The initial motion continues to be quite slow, or 340/3 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of Carlos is expected to build a
little over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn
toward the northwest and west-northwest with some increase in
forward speed in 1 to 2 days. Beyond that time the ridge weakens,
so in 3 to 5 days the tropical cyclone should turn toward the
north-northwest. As noted earlier, while the dynamical models
generally agree on the overall pattern, there is disagreement on
where and when Carlos will make landfall in southwestern Mexico.
The latest ECMWF solution shows landfall within 3 days whereas the
GFS shows landfall much sooner, within 1 to 2 days. Some of the
other guidance, such as the UKMET model, does not show landfall at
all. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and
is close to the ECMWF solution. Based on the new forecast track,
the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward
to Punta San Telmo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 100.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.3N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 20.0N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 21.5N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 141141
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...CARLOS WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 100.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 100.3 West. Carlos has been
nearly stationary for the past few hours. However, a turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area on Monday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
Monday night or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Tuesday with
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Upwelling taking a toll.

EP, 03, 2015061412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1003W, 65, 983, HU

[Yellow Evan]

It may be leveling off now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Upwelling taking a toll.

EP, 03, 2015061412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1003W, 65, 983, HU

Not only upwelling, but some southerly shear as well

[cycloneye]

Upwelling taking a toll.

EP, 03, 2015061412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1003W, 65, 983, HU

Not only upwelling, but some southerly shear as well

Also some dry air. In other words,it has been torned on all flanks.

[Yellow Evan]

Upwelling taking a toll.

EP, 03, 2015061412, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1003W, 65, 983, HU

Not only upwelling, but some southerly shear as well

Perhaps. Outflow is bending backwards in that area.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

The convective pattern of Carlos has eroded slightly since the
previous advisory and AMSU microwave satellite imagery indicates
that the western half of the eyewall has deteriorated as well.
Based on a blend of available satellite intensity estimates, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 320/02 kt. Steering
currents are expected to gradually strengthen as a mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico slowly builds to the north of Carlos. The ridge
should force the cyclone on a slow west-northwestward track just
offshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or
so. As Carlos nears the western periphery of the ridge by 72 hours,
the cyclone should turn northwestward to north-northwestward and
could move inland. Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of
the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains would keep the main circulation
of Carlos from moving very far inland on days 4 and 5. The global
and regional models are in decent agreement on this scenario, and
the official forecast track lies close to but is a little slower
than the previous advisory track, following a blend of the consensus
model TVCN and the FSSE model.

Sea-surface temperature data from Remote Sensing Systems this
morning indicate that a pool of cooler water has indeed upwelled
beneath Carlos, as alluded to in the previous discussion. The
colder water, in combination with some dry mid-level downslope flow
and modest northeasterly vertical wind shear, has likely caused the
short term weakening of the cyclone. However, with Carlos expected
to begin moving away from the region of upwelling and into an
environment of light shear later today, restrengthening back
to hurricane status is forecast to occur by late tonight or Monday
morning. Further slow strengthening is expected until landfall
occurs. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast
period remains highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to
which Carlos will interact with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and
beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS intensity
model and the previous intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.9N 100.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 03, 201506141745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1640N, 10070W, , 2, 65, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, KL, VIM, 3, 4040 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=4.5 BO EMB MET=4.0 PT=4.0 FTBO MET
EP, 03, 201506141745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1610N, 10080W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SS, VI, 5, 4040 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, TOPS HAVE WARMED BUT LLCC APPEARS TO BE DEEPER UNDER

Maybe 65 again?

[Yellow Evan]

. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE CARLOS
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 15/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0103E CARLOS
C. 15/1300Z
D. 17.0N 102.4W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE FIX ON
HURRICANE CARLOS AT 16/1730Z NEAR 18.4N 104.3W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

Although the satellite and radar appearance of Carlos has improved
slightly during the past few hours, including an intermittent
cloud-filled eye feature, cloud tops have warmed by more than 10
degrees Celsius in the convection surrounding the ragged eye feature
during this time. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus
T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, but the intensity is being held
slightly lower at 60 kt due to the warming cloud tops.

The initial motion estimate is now 310/05 kt. There is no change to
the previous forecast track or reasoning. The mid-level ridge to
the north of Carlos is expected to strengthen and shift slowly
eastward during the next 48-72 hours, which should act to keep the
small cyclone moving in a general west-northwestward direction, just
offshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours. By
72 hours, Carlos is expected to turn northwestward to north-
northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge axis,
possibly moving inland from near Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.
Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of the Sierra Madre del
Sur mountains would keep the main circulation of slow-moving Carlos
from penetrating too far inland on days 4 and 5 due to the lack of
any strong steering flow. The global and regional models remain in
decent agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track
lies a tad to the left of the previous advisory track, following a
blend of the consensus model TVCN and the FSSE model.

Now that Carlos has begun to move away from the region of cold
upwelling and into an environment of light vertical shear, some
restrengthening is expected and the cyclone is forecast to regain
hurricane status by late tonight or Monday morning. Further slow
strengthening is possible until landfall occurs, assuming that
Carlos remains far enough offshore of Mexico. The intensity
forecast in the latter part of the forecast period continues to
remain uncertain since it depends heavily on how much interaction
Carlos has with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and beyond. The NHC
intensity forecast is above all of the available guidance and is
very similar to the previous intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.4N 100.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.8N 101.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.3N 102.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.6N 103.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.3N 104.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 20.2N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 22.4N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

The satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the
past few hours. The convection surrounding the intermittent eye
feature has been fluctuating in intensity and is located mostly to
the east of the center. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are lower
that earlier, but still suggest an initial intensity of 60 kt. The
intensity forecast is uncertain. Most of the global guidance,
especially the GFS, basically dissipate the cyclone in the short
term, and none of the other models suggest any significant
strengthening. Given that Carlos will be moving into a low shear
environment and over warm waters for the next day or so, the NHC
forecast calls for a very slight strengthening, if at all. Beyond 3
days, the interaction of the circulation with the high terrain of
Mexico should result in weakening. The weakening could occur much
faster, if an earlier turn to the north-northwest toward land
materializes, as indicated by the GFS.

The steering currents remain weak and Carlos is moving toward the
northwest or 315 degrees at 5 kt. A weakness north of the cyclone
should encourage a gradual north-northwesterly turn, and this is the
solution of the ECMWF and the GFS. The NHC forecast is a little bit
to the left of these two models and the previous official forecast,
and is very close to the multi-model consensus. It is difficult to
forecast if the cyclone will even exist beyond 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.7N 101.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.1N 102.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.4N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.0N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 18.7N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 20.5N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z 22.0N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z 24.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops cooling. This may have a shot at a hurricane again if it can avoid land just enough.

[Yellow Evan]

00
WTPZ33 KNHC 150535
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
100 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...CARLOS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 101.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 101.6 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to the southern coast
of Mexico over the next day or two. However, a small deviation to
the north of the track would bring the center of Carlos closer to
the coast.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours and
Carlos is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight.

Carlos is small cyclone. Tropical storm force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area tonight or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane again???

20150615 0545 16.6 101.6 T4.0/4.0 03E CARLOS