ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 7:35 am

91L INVEST 150613 1200 17.0N 88.4W ATL 25 1009

#2 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 7:43 am

I was just trying to type in the talkin tropics forum that this should be a Invest soon and Bam!

#3 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 8:25 am

Nice increase of convection east of the trough of low pressure.

Sanibel · #4 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 8:57 am

The Honduras wave must have taken root.

randge · #5 Postby **randge** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:22 am

It always catches you when you're nappin' don't it??

tropicwatch · #6 Postby **tropicwatch** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:32 am

Glad I didn't sleep in too late:)

#7 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:02 am

Looks pretty good this morning. It looks probable that this will develop once into the BOC/ SW GOM region in the next couple of days. More potential heavy rainfall for Texas next week.

#8 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:08 am

northjaxpro wrote:Looks pretty good this morning. It looks probable that this will develop once into the BOC/ SW GOM region in the next couple of days. More potential heavy rainfall for Texas next week.

Most likely an east/southeast Texas and Louisiana rainfall event. I don't think we'll see all that much here along the I-35 corridor.

#9 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:10 am

Definitely Southeast Texas to be more specific looks to get potentially a real good dousing from this going into next week. This is not what they need for sure. A strong mean layered ridge is expanding across our region here, so extreme Northern Mexico into SE TX, to possibly the LA coast in my view looks to get the potential flooding rains next week from this system. Much will depend on how far west the ridge builds in as to who/where will get the greatest impact from this potential system.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:32 am

Recon for Monday if needed.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
INVEST OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24.0N 92.5W FOR 15/12Z. IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS, CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

galaxy401 · #11 Postby **galaxy401** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:34 am

Are conditions favorable in the Gulf? I remembering reading the outlook yesterday saying conditions were to be unfavorable. Has that changed?

#12 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:38 am

The shear is still there, but it appears it has relaxed just a bit in the region in which it may allow for some development at the surface may occur in the next couple of days. However, if development occurs, it will probably be a lopsided system, with most of the convection being on the eastern and northeastern quadrant of the system due to the moderate shear. May develop into a low end 40-50 mph TS at best IMO. Rainfall will be big problem potentially with this system.

stormlover2013 · #13 Postby **stormlover2013** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:59 am

Just gotta wait and see where the llc forms, if one even forms

tropicwatch · #14 Postby **tropicwatch** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:14 am

Quite a bit of vorticity associated with 91L.

#15 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:14 am

So far looking good on visible!

HurricaneTracker2031 · #16 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:21 am

91L looks like its getting better organized and once it enters the Gulf of Mexico the warmer waters will aid it in strengthening.

Synopsis on 91L and others: http://goo.gl/MdOACo

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#17 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:23 am

Floater is up
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

#18 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:28 am

I am starting to see a nice vorticity starting to take shape where I marked the X.

#19 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:35 am

Very nice convergence with it, is not just UL divergence from the UL trough.

#20 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:36 am

Yeah, it really looks good on IR imagery as well. For the time being, the shear has relaxed down over the Yucatan and once this emerges off the Yucatan into the GOM, will probably see a TD by Monday. Good move by NHC to schedule Recon for Monday.

ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

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