ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[Portastorm]

So was this expected? The Houston mets kept saying, when explaining that this would not be another Allison, that the steering currents were strong and no stall would happen. They were adamant about it. Has something now changed?

The GFS was suggesting yesterday and the day before that something like this *might* occur. Not a total surprise.

[Stormcenter]

No unless the NHC satellite is out to lunch. As I stated earlier it looks weaker (right now) on sat.
Not saying it won't ramp up later.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Does anyone get the feeling this is strengthening and that we may never know since there are no more flights?

[emeraldislenc]

The steering currents look very weak to me. You can see a wobble on radar!

[TheProfessor]

So if this turns to the Northwest as it's slowing down, could this cause more rain for the I-35 corridor, which would cause more river flooding down stream along the coast?

[Nederlander]

Definitely appears to have lost some of it's steering..

[TexasF6]

I have never seen the SPC's potential rainfall graphic/loop even come close to some of what it is progging with TSBill....I saw a reading of 44in....30in....24in...in the loop. Its only a model I watch regularly, but wow....




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

Pretty impressive structure.


CONUS dry air took over the west half.

[fendie]

Nice radar mosaic loop showing Bill wobbling around for the last couple hours around matagorda bay. Currently staying over water as it crawls NNE:

http://climate.cod.edu/janis/satellite/ ... xas-rad-48

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Still hugging the coast.

saved loop
http://imageshack.com/a/img537/873/rTcC3I.gif

Looks like its wobbling around, the last couple of frames looks nne.

Was thinking the same thing

[TexasF6]

The move NW has begun on radar.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah I was just seeing that.

[stephen23]

I am not seeing a NW movement. If anything I am seeing a wobble to the NE pretty much following the bay

[weathernerdguy]

The center is actually exposed on satellite.

[Texashawk]

I am not seeing a NW movement. If anything I am seeing a wobble to the NE pretty much following the bay

This.

[stephen23]

by way... have noticed over past several hours that the far southern part of storm a little south of due east of mexico/ texas border has maintained good convection for a while now with lower level cloud inflow at times. Was there any model support of this storm splitting and leaving something behind in the Gulf? Just curious.

[Wx_Warrior]

It's moving NW. May see a wobble or 2, but no "jogs" to NE E ESE, etc

[fendie]

Mesoscale Precip Discussion from NWS Weather Prediction Center:




MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0226
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST TX...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 161918Z - 170018Z

SUMMARY...STRONG CONVECTIVE INNER/OUTER BANDS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST TX. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
SUGGESTED BY LOCAL RADARS. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
BANDS WILL RAISE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN
MORE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM BILL IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
ALONG THE TX COAST. THE BLENDED-TPW PRODUCT PORTRAYS A SIGNIFICANT
SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MX. THE 17Z
GPS SOUNDER DATA INDICATES NEARLY 2.50 INCH PWATS IN THE VICINITY
OF GALVESTON BAY WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3
SIGMAS. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE IN PLACE...12Z
RAOBS OVER THE REGION INDICATE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ANCHORING THE LOWEST 3 KM OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDS ALIGNING ALONG THIS MOISTURE AXIS
WILL LEAD TO TRAINING/REPEAT CONVECTION WHICH ALREADY APPEARS
UNDERWAY IN SOUTHEAST TX. A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH FREEZING
LEVELS UP AROUND 15 TO 16 KFT PER 12Z RAOBS FROM CRP/LCH INDICATE
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION IS
LIKELY. WHILE CURRENT 1-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY NOT
EXCEEDED THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE...EXPECT THESE VALUES TO COME UP
AS THE BANDING BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.

HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY THROUGH 00Z. SUCH CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION SLOWLY
EXPANDING INLAND.

[wxman57]

I'm finally back in Houston. Only took 27 hours to travel from Chicago to Houston. Did I miss anything over the last few days?

[Portastorm]

I'm finally back in Houston. Only took 27 hours to travel from Chicago to Houston. Did I miss anything over the last few days?

Why yes, we're dealing with an Arctic Outbreak in Texas!

[jabman98]

I'm finally back in Houston. Only took 27 hours to travel from Chicago to Houston. Did I miss anything over the last few days?

Didn't miss a thing. Been a complete snooze.

Glad you got back safely. You practically could have driven for the amount of time it took you to fly.