ATL: BILL - Models

[Blinhart]

We might not know anything for the next couple days, but people have to keep an eye on this due to the amount of rain everybody here has gotten and need to prepare for more flooding.

[Alyono]

Until this invest emerges in the gulf and we see how much or little it develops models are just throwing darts right now. We have to watch for center relocations, what the ridge does out in the atl, and like I said how much it strengthens. Might not have a good idea til this time tomorrow.

this is posted every time and every time it has to be stated that that idea is scientifically untrue. Dynamical mdoels are quite capable of producing their own center.

We seem to be stuck in the 1990s where the only models worth anything were the track models that needed a center inputted into them.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If that's the case they should be dead on and there should never be any swings in track more than 50 miles days out from landfall then.

[stormlover2013]

Which I tend to agree, but models do struggle until the llc develops I mean especially when it's overland like it is now

[Alyono]

If that's the case they should be dead on and there should never be any swings in track more than 50 miles days out from landfall then.

it's clear you have zero understanding of numerical modeling. I'll leave it at that and not get into an argument

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Might be just slightly more than zero. But will just sit back and see what happens come tomorrow evening should a center actually develop.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS trended a bit south with 91L...Lots of Rain for all of the Texas coast and it looks like the GFS wants to slow it down after landfall..

0zGFS forecast valid for Monday Evening


0zGFS forecast valid for Tuesday Evening

[Hurricaneman]

Exactly like 1993 Arlene

[Rgv20]

0zUKMET has 91L close to Corpus by Tuesday Morning and than moves it NW after that..

[Hammy]

NAM looks like it's developing the northern portion of the low, and it did fairly well with Ana last month.

[stormlover2013]

If that happens then models will shift closer to upper Texas coast, Galveston

[Alyono]

12Z MU continues with the idea that this will remain as a trough and not a TC

[Hammy]

12Z MU continues with the idea that this will remain as a trough and not a TC

I've noticed it seems to develop anything and everything, unless there is actually a shot at development.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z Euro buries eastern Texas in rainfall over the next 4-5 days, with some areas receiving over a foot of precipitation.

[KatDaddy]

Yep and the last thing we need in SE TX.

[Portastorm]

0z tropical model runs ... seeing spread now in potential "landfall" areas:

[floridasun78]

0z tropical model runs ... seeing spread now in potential "landfall" areas:

all of tx in it

[Rgv20]

The GFS for the past several runs has 91L making landfall in South Texas between Corpus and Brownsville...UKMET, ECMWF, CMC, GFDL, HWRF are all more north. 0zGFS sticks to its guns..

Monday Evening


Tuesday Morning


Total Rainfall thru Wednesday Evening....even if it takes the Southern Route much of Texas will get some big rain out of it!

[stormlover2013]

That means it never makes the nw turn

[Rgv20]

In the short term it moves 91L NW and than on Monday more towards the WNW...Current Steering Analysis would support it (keyword CURRENT) we shall see tomorrow.