ATL: BILL - Models

#2 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 8:12 am

First set of tracks pointing towards the mid and upper TX coast look good to me.
The Euro has been erroneously building in the Bermuda ridge into Texas, the ridge will not extend that far west, IMO.

#3 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:01 am

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912015 06/13/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 34 36 36 37 40 43 44
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 30 29 31 31 32 35 29 28
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 27 29 29 30 32 34 30 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 29 25 24 20 15 17 24 24 22 19 15 11 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 6 6 6 -3 0 0 1 1 4 2
SHEAR DIR 295 281 277 288 302 294 323 320 329 320 326 291 299
SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.0 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 141 135 131 126 128 135 141 141 141 123 99
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 130 124 119 113 115 121 126 124 121 105 85
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 8 8 10 9 12 10 15 11
700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 77 77 78 76 74 70 65 64 59 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 10 12 12 12 13 10 11 10 10 12 13 13
850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 15 14 5 26 21 33 14 3 -33 -47 -73
200 MB DIV 71 67 66 67 43 56 13 37 -1 15 17 12 22
700-850 TADV 10 12 17 21 15 2 -4 -6 -7 0 -6 19 4
LAND (KM) -19 -37 -68 -137 -135 4 151 331 444 243 64 -131 -284
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.1 21.3 22.5 23.9 25.4 27.2 29.1 30.9 32.3
LONG(DEG W) 88.4 88.5 88.7 88.8 88.9 89.3 90.0 91.1 92.5 93.7 94.2 94.2 94.1
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 7 7 6 8 9 10 10 9 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 60 55 55 31 18 4 12 26 24 29 22 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -8. -7. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 9. 11. 11. 12. 15. 18. 19.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST 06/13/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912015 INVEST 06/13/15 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST 06/13/2015 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

#4 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:07 am

This is how erroneous the Euro has been in forecasting the Bermuda ridge to build westward into Texas.

Edit:

Last night's forecast from the Euro for Sunday night (48hrs) which we all agree forecasts this short in range are correct most times showing the weakness remaining over TX.

The Euro's forecast from Monday night showing the ridging extending into eastern TX for Sunday night:

#5 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:12 am

Hey NDG check your pm, thanks

#6 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:53 am

12zGFS trying hard to develop 91L! This is 48hrs out..

12zGFS weakens 91L as it moves closer to the Texas Coast...60hrs out.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:57 am

Rgv20 wrote:12zGFS trying hard to develop 91L! This is 48hrs out..
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Texas%20Summer%202015/gfs_mslp_pcpn_scus_8.jpg.png

It takes a left turn towards Corpus Christi at 1005mbs.

#8 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:03 am

cycloneye wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:12zGFS trying hard to develop 91L! This is 48hrs out..
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Texas%20Summer%202015/gfs_mslp_pcpn_scus_8.jpg.png

It takes a left turn towards Corpus Christi at 1005mbs.

Yeah it looks like Corpus on this run. It will really depend on where the low consolidates (IF ANY) as it looks like its going to be coming in at an angle so a few miles East or West will make a huge difference on to where 91L will come in. To me the highest threat are will be anywhere from Corpus to Houston..IMO.

#9 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:15 am

don't pay attention to the center. Pay attention to the very large area of rainfall

#10 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:49 am

Canadian model shows a core dump over much of the middle and upper Texas coast. There is a chance that the flooding will be worse than it was a couple of weeks ago

#11 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:48 pm

12zUKMET has 91L close to the South Texas coast in 72hrs...Look at that huge rain shield Alyono!

12zGFS at the same time frame as the UKMET..72hrs

12zCMC 72hrs

#12 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:58 pm

Looking at the 12zGFS Ensemble Members thru 60hrs they are really close to the operational run and thru 72hrs they are a tad south than the operational GFS..

12zGFS Ensemble Members 60hrs

12zGFS Ensemble Members 72hrs

#13 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 1:18 pm

12zECMWF has 91L in 72hrs close to where the 12zGFS has it.....that would be a lot of Rain for SE Texas!

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 1:19 pm

Tight consensus on track. SHIP up to 40kts as peak

vacanechaser · #15 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 2:43 pm

hey guys.. been away for awhile.. ive had computer issues and have lost links.. can someone post the BAM BAMD numeric model print out with ships in a link for me here please. I have racked my brain and just cant seem to find it.. thanx

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

1900hurricane · #16 Postby **1900hurricane** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 3:23 pm

Worth noting is the narrow band of extremely intense rainfall that the 12Z ECMWF drops immediately east of the circulation center. Wherever the closed low tracks (this is under the assumption one develops, which is still up in the air right now), areas near and east of there could see some hefty rainfall totals and flooding issues.

#17 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 3:26 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Worth noting is the narrow band of extremely intense rainfall that the 12Z ECMWF drops immediately east of the circulation center. Wherever the closed low tracks (this is under the assumption one develops, which is still up in the air right now), areas near and east of there could see some hefty rainfall totals and flooding issues.

12 to 16 inches of rainfall is depicted by the European scheme.

#18 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 6:30 pm

18Z MU has more of a broad trough than an organized TC. Something looks a bit off as it is really underdoing the rainfall. Run looks a touch suspicious

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 7:49 pm

The tight clustered models continue until the Texas coast.

CYCLONE MIKE · #20 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 8:25 pm

Until this invest emerges in the gulf and we see how much or little it develops models are just throwing darts right now. We have to watch for center relocations, what the ridge does out in the atl, and like I said how much it strengthens. Might not have a good idea til this time tomorrow.

ATL: BILL - Models

ATL: BILL - Models

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