WPAC: KUJIRA - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

This one was hinted by GFS yesterday, now its an Invest.

91W INVEST 150618 0000 14.0N 113.5E WPAC 15 1010

This will definitely start the rainy season over Western Luzon.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM brings a TS to Hainan Island.



CMC a typhoon while interacting with another system...



EURO landfalls a TS west of Hong Kong.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Minor TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 15N 112E NORTH SLOWLY

[ManilaTC]

Best Track: 91W INVEST 150619 1800 15.0N 111.9E WPAC 15 1010

JTWC ADVISORY
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
113.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A
190210Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS THE LIMITED
CONVECTION WEST OF A WEAK LLCC. A 190211Z SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS
SHOWS THAT THE ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH HAVE
STARTED TO WRAP ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW
(5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT;
HOWEVER, LIMITED TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PREVENTING
SUSTAINED CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
DEFINITION OF THE LLCC AND MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued:

WTPN21 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 111.8E TO 18.5N 110.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 111.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
112.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
BANDING, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED LLCC. A 202257Z WINDSAT IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
WINDS NOT LOCATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFF-
SETTING THE 10 TO 20 KNOTS OF VWS. MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS MARGINAL, DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS AN EFFECT OF THE SURGE EVENT
OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 200924

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (E OF VIETNAM)

B. 20/0832Z

C. 15.35N

D. 111.30E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

[euro6208]

Up to 1.5!

TXPQ23 KNES 200906
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 20/0832Z

C. 15.0N

D. 111.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES UNDER LARGE COLD OVERCAST
YIELDS SHEAR MATRIX DT=2.0. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS OF NOT INCREASING T-NUM MORE THAN .5 WITHIN FIRST 24HRS
OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200251ZJUN2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.6N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.1N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.0N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.2N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.8N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.5N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 111.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND
211500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 200251ZJUN15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(TWPN21 PGTW 200300).//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A DEVELOPING LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN OLDER 201127Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AGREEING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS AND DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN
EXTENSION OF A STR ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. AS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE EAST,
EXPECT TD 08W TO BEGIN TO TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH. THIS NORTHWARD
ROUTE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BEYOND THAT, LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND AND LEIZHOU
PENINSULA WILL CAUSE 08W TO DECAY.
C. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT DEPICTING A NORTHWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS 1508 (KUJIRA)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 21 June 2015

<Analyses at 21/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E111°30'(111.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°20'(18.3°)
E111°20'(111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°10'(20.2°)
E110°35'(110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E109°05'(109.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

08W KUJIRA 150621 0000 15.4N 111.4E WPAC 30 1000

[cycloneye]

[HurricaneTracker2031]

This system looks like it is ready to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm very soon. It has a lot of deep convective banding working for it and is looking great on satellite imagery. What do you guys thinks? I think this won't develop into a big storm. Maybe a 50mph storm or 60 mph.



Synopsis for Kjujira and other basins: http://goo.gl/UHn0d3

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This system looks like it is ready to be upgraded to a Tropical Storm very soon.

Hey, JMA is the official tropical cyclone warning center or agency in this basin, and they have already upgraded and even named it. That's exactly why the title is KUJIRA - Tropical Storm

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUN 2015 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 15:49:47 N Lon : 111:24:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -29.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 16:25:12 N Lon: 110:24:00 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.6 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUN 2015 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 15:53:08 N Lon : 111:24:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 996.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.1 2.0

Center Temp : -18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -26.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 16:16:48 N Lon: 110:24:36 E

[euro6208]

Been busy and surprised we have TS Kujira about to make landfall...

[euro6208]

Up to 45 knots!

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 220202Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 40 TO
45 KNOT CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
MATCHING SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 FROM PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH VWS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TS
KUJIRA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS KUJIRA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS TS 08W
APPROACHES HAINAN ISLAND. LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TRACK LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Models indicate close to 16 inches of rain for parts of Hainan while more than 8 inches is very likely. Flooding will be an issue here...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUN 2015 Time : 083000 UTC
Lat : 18:45:10 N Lon : 111:01:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 984.5mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : +8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -10.9C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.63^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 70km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.3 degrees