WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

[euro6208]

Models are confused

CMC

It strikes Guam as a near typhoon and then absorbs what is east of the Philippines (Which GFS is developing into a monster typhoon) and peaks around the Okinawa area...

[euro6208]

Even NAVGEM switched...

Takes what turns into this system into a dominant system swallowing up 95W and hitting Guam...

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N 145.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS
AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VWS. EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS. A 281148Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS A WELL DEFINED, BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N
145.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A WEAK, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE TO 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PARTIALLY
OFFSETTING THE VWS.GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE WEAK DEVELOPMENT
AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Although convection is shallow, it's circulation is much better defined...

[euro6208]

Back and Forth...GFS and EURO doesn't develop this anymore as it gets absorbed...

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF has 94W absorbing 95W while the GFS shows the opposite.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 148.8E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST
OF FANANU. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A
300002Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOTS CIRCULATION WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER 15 TO 20 KNOT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
WARM SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

JMA merges this with the Philippine system and becomes a strengthening TS or it could be the other way around...

NAVGEM doesn't merge this with 95W or the Philippine system. It passes it south of Guam as a strong TS to a typhoon interacting with another typhoon to the east...

CMC merges this with 95W...

EURO also merges this with 95W...

[euro6208]

GFS doesn't develop this...Huge Model war happening...

[Yellow Evan]

The GFS has been developing this for the last several runs (shows 2+ isobars), but they are over initializing on this system.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
148.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM WEST
OF FANANU. RECENT ANIMATED EIR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED
SIGNATURE WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. A 301201Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KNOT CORE WINDS
WITH STRONGER 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS WITH FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N
149.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST
OF CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF AN EXPOSED LLCC. A 302342Z PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VWS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
WARM SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Looks the the majority doesn't strengthen this that much...

JMA gets this absorbed into Chan-hom

So does NAVGEM

So does EURO

So does GFS

But CMC as a tropical storm also gets absorbed...

[euro6208]

It looks like it's starting to get absorbed into Chan-hom...

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 011535
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 01/1432Z

C. 7.6N

D. 148.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 BASED ON LLCC SHEARED LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES.
MET IS 1.0 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 1.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK

[senorpepr]

JMA dropped the tropical depression as it's absorbed into Chan-hom.

[euro6208]

Well poor 94W got swallowed up by Chan-hom...

It's no longer being track by JTWC/NRLMRY...