WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Looks great now.

If it's not a typhoon now, idk what is.

[Dave C]

Miyaka Jima in the line of fire next 3 days

[wxman57]

No question of typhoon intensity now. Great microwave pass:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/WPAC/09W.CHAN-HOM/tc_ssmis/composite/20150706.2224.f18.x.composite.09WCHAN-HOM.65kts-974mb-180N-1382E.99pc.jpg

[Yellow Evan]

Fun about to begin.

2015JUL06 203000 4.4 974.8 74.6 4.4 4.4 3.8 MW ON OFF OFF -79.42 -78.54 UNIFRM N/A 43.5 18.17 -137.78 FCST MTSAT2 22.8
2015JUL06 210000 4.4 974.8 74.6 4.4 4.4 4.2 MW ON OFF OFF -69.31 -79.16 EMBC N/A 43.5 18.20 -137.70 FCST MTSAT2 22.9
2015JUL06 213000 4.4 974.7 74.6 4.4 4.4 5.9 MW ON OFF OFF -41.52 -76.25 EYE -99 IR 38.7 18.23 -137.60 FCST MTSAT2 23.0
2015JUL06 220000 4.4 974.8 74.6 4.4 4.4 3.7 MW ON OFF OFF -70.06 -75.73 UNIFRM N/A 38.7 18.00 -138.10 SPRL MTSAT2 22.5
2015JUL06 223000 4.4 974.7 74.6 4.4 4.4 5.6 MW HOLD OFF OFF -39.78 -73.41 EYE -99 IR 9.8 18.28 -137.42 FCST MTSAT2 23.1
2015JUL06 231500 4.4 974.7 74.6 4.4 4.4 5.4 MW HOLD OFF OFF -37.46 -70.56 EYE -99 IR 9.8 18.31 -137.29 FCST MTSAT2 23.2
2015JUL06 233000 4.4 974.1 74.6 4.4 4.4 3.6 MW HOLD OFF OFF -62.67 -72.11 UNIFRM N/A 9.8 18.37 -137.50 SPRL MTSAT2 23.2

[cycloneye]

[img]WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 737 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 062224Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATUS OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 09W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY CHAN-HOM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
THE STEERING STR, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 120. VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD; HOWEVER, COOLER SST AND LOWER OHC VALUES, AS WELL AS LAND
INTERACTION AFTER TAU 96, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN[/img]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[Alyono]

clear typhoon on ASCAT

[Yellow Evan]

2015JUL07 013000 4.6 970.7 79.6 4.6 5.6 5.9 MW AdjEnd OFF OFF -5.91 -70.02 EYE 32 IR 9.8 17.86 -136.89 COMBO MTSAT2 22.9
2015JUL07 020000 4.8 966.8 84.8 4.8 5.6 5.8 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -10.07 -69.53 EYE -99 IR 9.8 17.99 -136.92 COMBO MTSAT2 23.0

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

JMA has a strong typhoon passing very close to Okinawa and recurves.



CMC is quite similiar but closer to Okinawa and shows a recurve to Korea/Japan



NAVGEM aiming for Northern Taiwan and after China



EURO peaks this at 916 mb and slams it into Taiwan

[Yellow Evan]

Looks about ready to bomb out.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2015 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 18:09:03 N Lon : 136:38:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 959.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : -3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[euro6208]

Nasty storm peaks at 888 mb...Any slight deviation to the south would bring the core of this Cat 5 right through Taipei and to Fujian province home to +37 million people. Slightly north is the more populated province of Zhejiang...

[euro6208]

Up to 80 knots!

09W CHAN-HOM 150707 0600 18.3N 136.4E WPAC 80 963

[dhoeze]

ot:

Guys do you have any updated link of the Euro Models? the one that i have been using for years is no longer working:

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... %21%21step


Super thanks,

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CLOUD FILLED, SLIGHTLY
RAGGED, EYE FEATURE WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
ON A 070519Z SSMIS IMAGE AND 12 NM EYE IN MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT TY 09W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VWS AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT-SOURCE. TY
09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY PEAKING AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF
THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY CHAN-HOM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE TO THE
NORTH AS THE STR EXTENSION RETREATS TO THE EAST AND BREAK DOWN DUE
TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS OHC VALUES WEAKEN IN THE REGION, DESPITE GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS MODEL (ALTHOUGH NOT THE GFS ENSEMBLE), BEING THE
OUTLIER AS THE MODEL DOES NOT HANDLE THE INBOUND TROUGH WELL.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

06Z GFS slams Miyako Jima and makes landfall a little bit north into Zhejiang Province.

I can't imagine living in Miyako and neighboring Ishigaki Shima during an 884mb typhoon...

[euro6208]

EURO goes right between Miyako and Ishigaki as a Cat 5 then heads west to Northern Taiwan/Taipei and then to China!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070927
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS WHILE
INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 135.9E

ABOUT 690 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 685 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS HEADING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UP TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES OF THE CENTER. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 18:42:30 N Lon : 135:13:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 955.5mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.9 4.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -37.0C Cloud Region Temp : -63.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.6 degrees

[euro6208]

TYPHOON CHAN-HOM ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 137.8E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 07.07.2015 17.8N 137.8E STRONG

12UTC 07.07.2015 18.6N 135.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.07.2015 19.6N 133.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 08.07.2015 21.3N 131.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.07.2015 23.3N 128.6E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.07.2015 25.5N 125.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.07.2015 27.0N 122.8E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.07.2015 28.1N 120.4E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 11.07.2015 29.4N 119.1E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 11.07.2015 31.1N 118.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.07.2015 33.4N 120.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.07.2015 36.4N 121.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.07.2015 38.7N 122.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE