WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

JMA takes this to Wenzhou, a metro city of +6 million people...



NAVGEM. Miyako Jima and Eastern China...




CMC recurves this into Japan after hitting Miyako!




EURO still sees some significant intensification as it passes over Miyako Jima and makes landfall at 916 mb...

[euro6208]

Cat 5 for Miyako and peak of 915 mb bulleyes Wenzhou...

[euro6208]

Has struggled fluctuating in it life time so far, at this point of time hoping it continues to. Even @100 knts the size of this system and its potential
to flood a low lying populated city could be catastrophic.

I'm more worried about Shanghai which is majorily 6 ft above sea level. The Yangtze river runs through the city and many levees were built to protect the city. These levees protected the city from their highest tidal surge which occurred 1997's Typhoon Winnie as it made landfall south of the city.

Chan-hom is stronger...

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

Looks like it's winning the battle against dry air. The start to Category 5?

[euro6208]

Damn that is one large eye developing...

[keitheyleen]

Sharing live broadcast from Okinawa Japan
https://youtu.be/eLabffTRqh8



credits: Tminus10 https://m.facebook.com/Tminus10Media

[ejeraldmc]

Looks stronger now

[Yellow Evan]

Looks 95ish to me.

[euro6208]

Last advisory issued from NWS Guam...


000
WTPQ31 PGUM 090323
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
200 PM CHST THU JUL 9 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 129.2E

ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
ABOUT 1205 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
129.2 DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH.
CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL TRACK THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 105 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO 165 MILES. SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR TYPHOON CHAN-HOM.

$$

M AYDLETT

[Yellow Evan]

Well, it does look the long awaited RI may be starting.

[Yellow Evan]

[euro6208]

Nearing Miyako

[euro6208]

North of Miyako and a potential recurving typhoon for Shanghai?

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS DEPICTED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, TY 09W REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH A RADIUS OF
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM, THEREFORE, GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM'S TIGHT OUTER GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTEND OVER OKINAWA WITH
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ABOUT 120 NM FROM THE CENTER. A 090758Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 26N WITH MORE INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 25N WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE EYEWALL.
ANIMATED IR IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED 38-NM EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. IR IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLIGHT WOBBLE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
20) VWS BEING OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 09W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF GFDN, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. TY CHAN-HOM WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, TY CHAN-HOM SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED STR, WHICH WILL
RE-ORIENT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. TY 09W
WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER EASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC AND GFDN TRACKING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE WEST SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST, CAUSING A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOWING TY
09W TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS. TY 09W IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. AT
THIS TIME, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO
THE LACK OF A DYNAMIC TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. DUE TO THE SPREAD
IN DYNAMIC GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Reading somewhere that the people of Shanghai don't realize a typhoon is coming...That is bad...

[euro6208]

oh god here we go



bad news for miyako

[euro6208]

Latest GFS run takes this through Wenzhou, a prefecture level city of over +9 million people and takes what left of it over Shanghai before exiting into the Yellow Sea...

[euro6208]

This storm is indeed large...Okinawa reporting 52 mph sustained gusting to 71 mph...Pressure of 989mb...

[euro6208]

Miyako is reporting 23 mph gusting to 37 mph and pressure of 987 mb...

[euro6208]

EURO still seeing some intense strengthening after it hits Miyako. 918 mb and a Cat 5 or 4 for Wenzhou and a typhoon recurving inland goes right over Shanghai...