WPAC: LINFA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 150630 1200 11.6N 131.2E WPAC 15 NA

The Philippine system is now an invest...

[Alyono]

EC shows this potentially getting near typhoon intensity

[dexterlabio]

and the GFS shows brief development to a TD or TS then gets absorbed by the larger and stronger Chanhom.

[dexterlabio]

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZJUL2015//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZJUL2015//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZJUL2015//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/

2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 130.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 548 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MSI DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 010122Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 10
TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WELL SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

JMA doesn't develop this

NAVGEM does bring this to a tropical storm east of Luzon while slowly weakens it south of Okinawa

CMC goes big with this, 958 mb east of Taiwan and kinda stalls it...

EURO strengthens this to a TS but gets absorbed by Chan-hom...

GFS develops this into a moderate tropical storm but gets absorbed by Chan-hom...

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 011730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 130.3E TO 15.6N 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 129.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
130.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SYMMETRIC FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE CIRCULATION AND STRONGER WESTERLY SURGE WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021730Z.
//

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 011523
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 01/1432Z

C. 13.3N

D. 130.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 BASED ON GREATER THAN .2 BANDING. MET IS 1.0
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK

[dexterlabio]

JMA now issuing warning on this TD.



TD
Issued at 22:05 UTC, 1 July 2015

<Analyses at 01/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°25'(13.4°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 02/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[cycloneye]

[dexterlabio]

okay why is JTWC bullish on this one and not on Chan-hom?

[dexterlabio]

Yeah but still I think an 80kt forecast for this system is a bit stretched...I'm expecting at least a severe TS before interacting with Chan-hom, which I think will already be super then...

[euro6208]

Closer to Luzon...

WDPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO
THE WEST OF A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 10W IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A STR LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 10W WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MODERATE VWS WILL
PERSIST; HOWEVER, WARM SST AND HIGH OHC VALUES IN THE AREA REMAIN
FAVORABLE, RESULTING IN SLOW INTENSIFICATION - UP TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN TD 10W. HOWEVER, THE APPROACH OF TS 09W FROM THE
EAST MAY INITIATE A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION, CAUSING 10W TO TRACK
MORE POLEWARD. THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL TRACK SPEEDS, LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 14:24:03 N Lon : 128:17:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.5mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.4 2.7

Center Temp : -75.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.6 degrees

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS LINFA.

TS 1510 (LINFA)
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 2 July 2015
<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°25'(15.4°)
E128°50'(128.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°30'(16.5°)
E126°40'(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E122°50'(122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC FEATURE IN THE 021006Z 89GHZ GPM
MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 10W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VWS AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 10W WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST;
HOWEVER, WARM SST AND HIGH OHC VALUES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE,
RESULTING IN SLOW INTENSIFICATION - UP TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN TD 10W. HOWEVER, THE APPROACH OF TS 09W FROM THE
EAST MAY INITIATE A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION, CAUSING 10W TO TRACK
SLOWER AND MORE POLEWARD. THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL TRACK SPEEDS, LEND AN OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Interesting - JTWC has it strengthening to a typhoon at 72-120 hrs while models are indicating it to be weakening to a remnant low by 120 hrs. With the much larger Chan-hom approaching in 4-5 days, I'd go with the weakening rather than strengthening to a typhoon through day 5.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Interesting - JTWC has it strengthening to a typhoon at 72-120 hrs while models are indicating it to be weakening to a remnant low by 120 hrs. With the much larger Chan-hom approaching in 4-5 days, I'd go with the weakening rather than strengthening to a typhoon through day 5.

Depending on which direction it will take. JMA and JTWC are in agreement on its intensity and have been more consistent than the models

[wxman57]

Interesting - JTWC has it strengthening to a typhoon at 72-120 hrs while models are indicating it to be weakening to a remnant low by 120 hrs. With the much larger Chan-hom approaching in 4-5 days, I'd go with the weakening rather than strengthening to a typhoon through day 5.

Depending on which direction it will take. JMA and JTWC are in agreement on its intensity and have been more consistent than the models

Models are in good agreement as far as the track and intensity. Hard to say either the JMA or JTWC has been consistent, as only a couple advisories have been issued. Shear should be increasing as Chan-hom approaches the region next week, which should lead to weakening and dissipation. Don't know if it will reach typhoon strength, could be close in 48 hours or so.

[dexterlabio]

If this were to be a typhoon, it should start getting more organized right now. It is still somewhat sheared. I think it could be at most a 50-knot JMA severe TS as it stalls just off Luzon coast.


I am not downplaying the effects of this system though. As we always say, strong winds are not always the greatest threat. Slow-moving storms accompanied by the enhanced monsoon can deal much damage due to heavy rainfall.