WPAC: LINFA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Severe Tropical Storm

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 04, 2015 9:57 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MSI
DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVERLAND AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
OBSCURING THE LLCC. FOR THIS REASON, THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED STRUCTURE AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVERLAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS
BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK
HAS SHIFTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVED OVERLAND.
B. TS 10W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN LUZON. BY TAU 24,
MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST, BUT FAVORABLE SST AND OHC WILL ALLOW TS
10W TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER LUZON STRAIT.
CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A
BREAK IN THE STEERING STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SLOW MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING TREND ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED, BUT STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE BREAK IN THE STR, POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH
TS 09W, AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Severe Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 4:31 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
TRACKING OVER LUZON WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 050545Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED BANDING OVER WATER WITH WEAKER, MORE DISORGANIZED CORE
CONVECTION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
STEADY AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS
10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN LUZON BUT IS FORECAST TO RE-
INTENSIFY AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER WATER AFTER TAU 12. BY TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING
STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, SLOW MOVEMENT AND A WEAKENING TREND ARE EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK SPEEDS. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE BREAK IN THE STR AND POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION
WITH TS 09W, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE TO APPROXIMATELY 310 NM BY
TAU 120. DUE TO THE COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST INTENSITY AND TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE OVERALL JTWC
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Severe Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 5:01 am

EURO has a 980mb typhoon in store for Taiwan doing a Fujiwhara with Chan-hom...

GFS looks much weaker with what's left of it goes to china...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Jul 05, 2015 6:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Severe Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 5:07 am

It's bursting and it won't let land weaken it...

Image
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:34 am

euro6208 wrote:It's bursting and it won't let land weaken it...

Image


Looks like Linfa has a good chance of attaining typhoon status before smashing Taiwan..
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 2:32 pm

Found an interesting image of Linfa at time of landfall...

looks like a typhoon...

Image
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 2:51 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 18:23:48 N Lon : 119:16:34 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 987.7mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.1

Center Temp : -50.8C Cloud Region Temp : -37.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.76 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 17:23:23 N Lon: 118:16:11 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.4 degrees
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jul 05, 2015 11:17 pm

The LLC is now fully exposed
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#49 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 06, 2015 7:53 pm

Based on ASCAT passes and improved appearance since then, this is likely 55-60 knts,
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 07, 2015 5:36 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI REVEALS A SLIGHTLY DEEPENED
STRUCTURE AND BETTER WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE POSITION IS BASED
ON A 070550Z NPP IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON ALL FIXING AGENCIES AGREEING ON FT OF
3.0. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE EFFECT OF THE PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERLY
VWS CAN BE SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN POTION OF THE SYSTEM. TS
LINFA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS, PARTIALLY FROM TY
09W. WHILE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST, THERE MAY BE SOME INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS,
BY TAU 24. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS CAN HAMPER
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND FORCE SIGNIFICANT DECAY OF THE
SYSTEM WITH ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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#51 Postby talkon » Tue Jul 07, 2015 5:40 am

TXPQ25 KNES 070934
TCSWNP

A. 10W (LINFA)

B. 07/0832Z

C. 20.6N

D. 118.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.0 BASED ON 1.2 VIS BANDING. MET IS 3.0 BASED ON
DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:12 am

The only one out of the three the models aren't forecasting a sub -900mb pressure so that is why this storm isn't getting alot of attention but sadly is closer to land and affecting someone right now...

Linfa is fighting for recognition!

Image
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:23 am

06Z GFS is a little bit faster than 00Z and more north than the latest JTWC forecast. It takes a small tight vortex near Shantou...
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:38 am

EURO is stronger with this...

964 mb off the coast...

Image
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:14 am

00Z and 006 sugguesting an eye is developing...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:23 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 20:53:58 N Lon : 118:24:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 981.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -76.2C Cloud Region Temp : -55.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 68km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.7 degrees
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:59 am

:double:

TROPICAL STORM LINFA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 118.8E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 07.07.2015 20.0N 118.8E MODERATE

12UTC 07.07.2015 20.6N 118.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.07.2015 21.5N 118.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.07.2015 22.2N 118.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.07.2015 23.1N 116.6E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.07.2015 22.9N 113.5E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 10.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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#58 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Jul 07, 2015 9:06 pm

damn, looks like a pinhole eye forming on Linfa
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Re: WPAC: LINFA - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:18 am

Image


Is that double eyewall?
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#60 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Jul 08, 2015 4:04 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2015 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 22:04:57 N Lon : 118:37:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 969.7mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.5

Center Temp : -54.9C Cloud Region Temp : -64.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 66km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.3 degrees
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