WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

97W INVEST 150630 1200 4.5N 176.0E WPAC 15

[dexterlabio]

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZJUL2015//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZJUL2015//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZJUL2015//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6NN 175.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 478 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MSI
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. AN OLDER 302200Z PARTIAL ASCAT
SHOWED 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST IN
THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

Wow...

[euro6208]

JMA shows a typhoon east of Guam



NAVGEM isn't excited as much brings a weak circulation towards the Marianas

CMC strengthens this slowly to a typhoon well away from land

EURO takes a 960 mb typhoon through the Northern Islands and peaks it to 946 mb south of Japan

GFS isn't that happy with this...Seems to get absorbed into Chan-hom too lol

[euro6208]

Hit!



Another possible interaction...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N
176.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 174.1E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST
OF MAJURO, MARSHALL ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTCAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, A TROUGH, AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE AND SUPPRESSING THE
CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GRADUALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

Looking ominous...



Well defined moisture envelope...

[euro6208]

Much better organized...

[euro6208]

Up to 3 inches of rain possible for the Marshall Islands...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TD
Issued at 01:45 UTC, 3 July 2015
<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°30'(8.5°)
E173°05'(173.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°30'(8.5°)
E172°10'(172.2°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The title should be Tropical Depression 97W, since the JTWC never upgraded this, not even given yet a TCFA

[Yellow Evan]

TCFA issued:

WTPN21 PGTW 030530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 171.5E TO 10.7N 165.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030432Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 171.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 171.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 170.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTHWEST OF MAJURO, MARSHALL ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN AREA OF CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INTRODUCING DRY AIR INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 040530Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Alright, maybe TD 11W later this afternoon

[euro6208]

Here we go!

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 030628

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (NW OF MAJURO)

B. 03/0532Z

C. 8.33N

D. 170.64E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

FOR THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...UPDATED

THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNIG CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT FOR INVEST AREA 97W. THIS MEANS THAT A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 97W IS
LOCATED NEAR 8N171E OR AROUND 70 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
AND 205 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. LATEST ASCAT SHOWS WEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH 97W BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THESE WINDS CAN CAUSE
DAMAGE ON POORLY CONSTRUCTED STRUCTURES AND CAUSE BOATS TO BREAK
FROM THEIR MOORINGS. SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND COULD INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS 97W STRENGTHENS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...INTER-
ISLAND AND INTER-ATOLL TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER NEXT WEEK. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TO THE
NORTH OF MAJURO...BUT UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
ATOLL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
ISLANDS AND ATOLLS BETWEEN 8N AND 11N.

SWELL AND WIND WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH WITH A RISING
SPRING TIDE CYCLE RESULTING IN COASTAL INUNDATION UP TO 2 FEET ALONG
SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES ON MAJURO...JALUIT AND MILI ATOLLS
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT MICRONESIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY...PAY ATTENTION TO LATER STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now TD 11W, not 011W

11W ELEVEN 150703 1200 9.2N 171.8E WPAC 25 1001

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030521Z JUL 15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 9.2N 171.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 171.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.9N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 10.3N 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.7N 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.2N 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.0N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.6N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.3N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 171.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
EAST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 030521Z JUL 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 030530). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
EAST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. A 031003Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING CURVATURE WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER. A 030533Z RAPID SCAT IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ~25 KT WIND BARBS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RJTD FIX POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KTS. BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RAPID
SCAT IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 5-15 KTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS FROM THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. TRACK SPEEDS ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 12 KTS. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ALONG TRACK DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SSTS AND POSITIVE OHC VALUES. AFTER TAU
48 TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AND BEGIN
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL
COMPACT SYSTEM THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 120. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DYNAMIC PATTERN CURRENTLY
OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC, CLOSE ATTENTION SHOULD ALSO BE PAID
TO THE EVOLUTION OF TS 09W AND INVEST 98W.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm NANGKA.

TS 1511 (NANGKA)
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 3 July 2015
<Analyses at 03/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°25'(9.4°)
E170°30'(170.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°)
E168°55'(168.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°55'(10.9°)
E166°35'(166.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E161°10'(161.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°35'(12.6°)
E156°25'(156.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)