WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[img]WDPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 41//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 10 NM EYE AND
OVERALL GOOD SYMMETRY IN THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS INDICATIONS OF
THE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP A CLEAR CUT MOAT REGION WITH SECOND EYEWALL, AN
INDICATOR THAT THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING THROUGH AN ERC. THE
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND
THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VWS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD AS THE STEERING STR BACKS
TO THE EAST AND REFORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT EASTERN COMPONENT TO TY
11W TRACK DUE TO THE REORIENTATION OF THE STR. HOWEVER, BY TAU 48,
THE STEERING STR WILL REBUILD, FORCING TY NANGKA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
DUE TO LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE OHC THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A PEAK OF
125 KNOTS.
C. THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE EASTERN
TRACK WITH THE STR EXTENSION BUILDING IN SHARPLY, FORCING TY 11W TO
CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS JUST AFTER TAU 72 ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF
SHIKOKU. THE NAVY AND INTERNATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A BROADER, WIDER, STR FORMING, WHOSE AXIS EXTENDS TO
EASTERN KYUSHU. WHILE ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THE OVERALL
TRACK, THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND A REBUILDING STR AXIS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND WEAKEN (DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED
VWS), THE EXTENT OF THE STR REBUILDING REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS SUCH,
THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
LAID SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN[/img]

[mrbagyo]

I wonder if Nangka can somehow transform into a truck-tire doughnut.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

What a large typhoon this is and it's eye should be huge...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 140921
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 14 2015

...TYPHOON NANGKA MOVING NORTHWARD...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 136.5E

ABOUT 820 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 860 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 590 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH...360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.5 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA IS HEADING NORTH AT 10 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 MPH. NANGKA IS STILL FORECASTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 44//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE CLOUD FILLED EYE WITH DIMINISHING CENTRAL CONVECTION
DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS
READILY APPARENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE LARGE CLOUD FILLED EYE AND IS SUPPORTED BY
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. TY NANGKA IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 CELSIUS; HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. TY 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. BY TAU 48, THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD, FORCING TY NANGKA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED; HOWEVER, THE
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
PREVENT AN INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE. BEYOND TAU 48, AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL LOSE THE EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. IN ADDITION, INCREASING VWS, LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT
APPROACHES AND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF JAPAN AND ROUND THE STR AXIS, TURNING TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS VWS
RAPIDLY INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DECREASES. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK
ORIENTATION; HOWEVER, THERE ARE VARYING DEGREES FOR THE RECURVE WITH
A 300NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Nasty strike for Japan...Makes landfall in Shikoku as a strong Cat 3/4 then veers it off to the northeast affecting a much populated area...

[cycloneye]

WDPN33 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 45//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 10NM EYE HAS RE-EMERGED; HOWEVER, A STRUGGLING
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE CONTINUES DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER FROM THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 140953Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A 50 NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AND WITHIN
BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON AN UNCHANGED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY NANGKA IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 CELSIUS; HOWEVER, DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. TY 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. BY TAU 24, THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD, FORCING TY NANGKA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED; HOWEVER, THE
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
PREVENT AN INCREASED INTENSIFICATION RATE. BEYOND TAU 48, AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL LOSE THE EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. IN ADDITION, INCREASING VWS, LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT
APPROACHES AND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY NANGKA WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS
OF JAPAN AND ROUND THE STR AXIS, TURNING TO A NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DECREASES, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE WITH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 150NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUED
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 72, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

http://i.imgur.com/L7t4MwW.gif

[euro6208]

Impressive...

At least a Cat 3...

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 48//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 15 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE WITH GOOD CURVED
BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF REDUCED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES AND THE STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXPANDING DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, EVIDENT
ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AND THE REMNANTS OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST ARE
PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSING THE STRUCTURAL ISSUES SEEN IN
INFRARED IMAGERY. TY 11W HAS STARTED TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS
AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS BUILDING IN
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING STR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED ALLOWING FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS;
HOWEVER, MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AND
MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF MAINLAND JAPAN NEAR TAU 36 WHICH WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER AFTER TAU 48 WHERE HIGH VWS AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 CELSIUS WILL FURTHER ERODE THE
SYSTEMS STRUCTURE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY NANGKA WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, POSSIBLY SOONER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COAMPS-TC, AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS
NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[wxman57]

The apparent unnamed storm south of Nangka caught my eye:

[talkon]

That is a JMA TD.

[euro6208]

Intense storms preceding the eye...

[euro6208]

Landfall soon southeast of the major port city of Kochi...