EPAC: INVEST 95E

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2015070218, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1350W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952015 07/02/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 34 37 38 38 33 27 22 18 DIS
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 34 37 38 38 33 27 22 18 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 8 4 2 1 4 6 9 10 17 27 40 45
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -2 -3 1 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0
SHEAR DIR 39 33 37 355 312 205 180 208 240 229 230 226 221
SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 144 142 138 134 133 132 130 124 122 123
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 69 70 70 70 68 70 70 68 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 22 18 10 13 18 42 52 61 61 59 38
200 MB DIV 151 134 107 65 45 50 33 22 57 64 61 73 60
700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 9 11 17
LAND (KM) 2375 2285 2196 2122 2048 1946 1870 1793 1692 1519 1273 986 703
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.9 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.2 16.4 17.8 19.2
LONG(DEG W) 135.0 135.7 136.3 136.8 137.3 137.9 138.4 139.0 139.8 141.2 143.2 145.6 148.1
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 6 5 3 4 6 10 12 13 14
HEAT CONTENT 9 13 23 28 30 23 8 2 2 0 0 0 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 13. 7. 2. -2. -6.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/02/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[CrazyC83]

The big question is whether it develops before or after 140W.

[Yellow Evan]

The big question is whether it develops before or after 140W.

I'm thinking before.

[Kingarabian]

Could be 95E or 96E; GFS has one of them getting close to the Big Island of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Could be 95E or 96E; GFS has one of them getting close to the Big Island of Hawaii.

That's 95E.

The ECMWF brings it quite close as a remnant.

[Kingarabian]

Could be 95E or 96E; GFS has one of them getting close to the Big Island of Hawaii.

That's 95E.

The ECMWF brings it quite close as a remnant.

For sure we could use the rain.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952015 07/03/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 27 30 32 33 31 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 30 32 33 31 29 23 16 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 24 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 1 3 7 7 11 14 15 26 39 47 53
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -4 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -5 -7
SHEAR DIR 37 56 346 244 219 232 220 236 232 231 240 237 234
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.4 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 142 139 134 130 128 127 124 120 118 119
200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 67 68 67 67 66 62 60 56 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 9 2 1 3 10 51 53 53 52 30 23
200 MB DIV 126 113 85 63 40 1 10 47 55 57 67 71 43
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 8 18 20 24
LAND (KM) 2261 2184 2107 2041 1975 1885 1806 1736 1613 1430 1196 954 732
LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.6 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.3 17.7 19.2 20.7
LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.4 136.9 137.3 137.7 138.2 138.7 139.2 140.2 141.7 143.6 145.7 147.9
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 7 10 12 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 16 24 29 29 26 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -5. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 9. 3. -4. -9. -13. -15.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/03/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 5.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 07/03/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

They are conducive already?

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad low pressure
located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to conducive for gradual
development over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable early next week. The low is expected to move
slowly to west-northwest or northwest for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952015 07/03/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 34 35 35 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 34 35 35 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 30 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 9 10 12 13 17 24 37 44 48 43
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -4 -6 -3 0 0 -1 -3 -5
SHEAR DIR 126 175 184 217 226 230 240 234 227 233 234 232 246
SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 137 136 133 133 130 125 121 121 122 121
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 67 69 71 70 70 69 68 62 58 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 6 -4 -10 -15 -11 0 30 37 50 52 21 7 4
200 MB DIV 71 46 23 11 22 34 44 54 68 59 52 36 20
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 17 14 11 11
LAND (KM) 2103 2041 1980 1941 1903 1817 1710 1557 1334 1064 808 583 410
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.2 15.0 16.1 17.6 19.1 20.4 21.2
LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.4 137.7 138.0 138.2 138.8 139.7 140.9 142.7 144.9 147.1 149.3 151.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 9 12 13 13 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 34 34 29 23 14 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -7. -12. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 6. 1. -6. -14. -19. -24. -26.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/03/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a small low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development over the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable early next week. The low is expected to
move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest for the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Needs to get its act together soon.

[cycloneye]

A small low pressure area located about 1300 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development over the next couple of days before
upper-level winds become unfavorable by Monday. The low is forecast
to move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

Is over.

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing limited shower activity.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less conducive, with
development not expected after the weekend. The low is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

A well-defined low pressure area has been nearly stationary about
1125 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands for the past
several hours. This system is producing poorly organized shower
and thunderstorm activity, mainly well to the east of the center.
Although this low still has some potential for development,
upper-level winds are expected to prevent formation after the
weekend while the system drifts westward or west-northwestward
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[WeatherGuesser]

So, no twins?

[Yellow Evan]

So, no twins?

Two far apart to be considered twins anyhow IMO, but no.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952015 07/05/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 13 15 26 35 44 50 46 44 43 41
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 -4 -4 -8 -7 -7
SHEAR DIR 228 221 219 222 211 221 230 232 237 250 251 252 252
SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 131 129 126 123 121 122 121 122 123 127
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 69 68 70 69 66 60 57 53 50 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -13 3 15 20 17 37 46 27 11 0 3 18 26
200 MB DIV 7 7 11 26 50 63 74 66 28 -3 -15 -24 -16
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 13 15 10 6 0 0
LAND (KM) 1807 1766 1726 1663 1601 1430 1186 913 680 511 326 113 73
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.7 16.9 18.3 19.7 20.4 20.6 20.3 19.8
LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.2 139.5 140.0 140.5 141.9 143.9 146.2 148.3 150.0 151.9 154.1 156.8
STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 7 10 12 13 10 9 9 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 1 9 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -14. -22. -26. -30. -31.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -27. -36. -43. -46. -47. -46.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 07/05/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)