CPAC: ELA - Post-Tropical
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight while the
system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight while the
system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later tonight while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. The low is forecast to
cross 140W longitude and move into the central Pacific basin later
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later tonight while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. The low is forecast to
cross 140W longitude and move into the central Pacific basin later
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Kingarabian
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Kingarabian
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
EP, 96, 2015070800, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1395W, 30, 1005, TD
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Kingarabian
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015
..FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS AND
THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 140.2W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015
Visible satellite images late this afternoon indicate that curved
bands of convection have developed around the center of the
well-defined low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore the system now
qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated
at this time. SAB/TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range
from T1.5/25 kt to T2.5/35 kt, and the system has a pattern T-number
of T2.0, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. During the next 72 hours,
the cyclone is forecast to move in a general west-northwestward
direction along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge
located to its north. By 96 hours, the system is expected to weaken
and become more vertically shallow, and be steered westward by the
low-level easterly trade wind flow. The models are in general
agreement through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly after
that, with most of the NHC guidance moving the cyclone or its
remnants west-northwestward to northwestward at 96 and 120 hours.
The exception is the ECMWF model, which turns the system
west-southwestward by 96 hours and beyond. The official forecast
track is similar to the consensus model TVCE through 72 hours, and
then follows the ECMWF trend after that since this model maintains
a larger and more realistic vortex on days 4 and 5.
The SHIPS guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind
shear is expected to remain below 10 kt while the system is over 26C
or greater sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 hours or so,
which should allow for gradual strengthening into a tropical storm.
By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt
from the southwest, which should cap any intensification and induce
a steady weakening trend after that. However, the GFS-based SHIPS
model is forecasting stronger vertical shear than the ECMWF model
and, as a result, shows complete dissipation of the cyclone by 96
hours. Given the reliability of the ECMWF, the official intensity
forecast has incorporated a blend of these two models' shear
computations, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through
96 hours, and a remnant low at 120 hours. This scenario seems more
likely given the rather large size of the circulation, which will
make the vortex more shear resistant and also take longer to spin
down and dissipate.
The depression has crossed 140W longitude as of the 0300 UTC
advisory time, so this will be the last advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the
depression will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
in Honolulu Hawaii.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 15.4N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.6N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 17.6N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 18.6N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.6N 148.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.5N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.7N 156.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 23.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015
..FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS AND
THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 140.2W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042015
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015
Visible satellite images late this afternoon indicate that curved
bands of convection have developed around the center of the
well-defined low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore the system now
qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated
at this time. SAB/TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range
from T1.5/25 kt to T2.5/35 kt, and the system has a pattern T-number
of T2.0, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. During the next 72 hours,
the cyclone is forecast to move in a general west-northwestward
direction along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge
located to its north. By 96 hours, the system is expected to weaken
and become more vertically shallow, and be steered westward by the
low-level easterly trade wind flow. The models are in general
agreement through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly after
that, with most of the NHC guidance moving the cyclone or its
remnants west-northwestward to northwestward at 96 and 120 hours.
The exception is the ECMWF model, which turns the system
west-southwestward by 96 hours and beyond. The official forecast
track is similar to the consensus model TVCE through 72 hours, and
then follows the ECMWF trend after that since this model maintains
a larger and more realistic vortex on days 4 and 5.
The SHIPS guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind
shear is expected to remain below 10 kt while the system is over 26C
or greater sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 hours or so,
which should allow for gradual strengthening into a tropical storm.
By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt
from the southwest, which should cap any intensification and induce
a steady weakening trend after that. However, the GFS-based SHIPS
model is forecasting stronger vertical shear than the ECMWF model
and, as a result, shows complete dissipation of the cyclone by 96
hours. Given the reliability of the ECMWF, the official intensity
forecast has incorporated a blend of these two models' shear
computations, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through
96 hours, and a remnant low at 120 hours. This scenario seems more
likely given the rather large size of the circulation, which will
make the vortex more shear resistant and also take longer to spin
down and dissipate.
The depression has crossed 140W longitude as of the 0300 UTC
advisory time, so this will be the last advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the
depression will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
in Honolulu Hawaii.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 15.4N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.6N 142.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 17.6N 144.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 18.6N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.6N 148.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.5N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.7N 156.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 23.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Yellow Evan
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Kingarabian
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 07 2015
A BEVY OF MICROWAVE PASSES RECEIVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
INCLUDING AN AMSU-B PASS AT 0234Z AND SSMI/S PASSES AT 0308Z...
0321Z AND 0418Z...INDICATE THAT THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
ANTICIPATED. LATEST DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB
SUPPORT THIS NORTHWARD NUDGE...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A BANDING FEATURE
THAT BRIEFLY FLARED SOUTH OF THE CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SINCE DIMINISHED...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.
WITH THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD NUDGE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 315/15 KT. ASIDE FROM THE CHANGE IN INITIAL POSITION...SHORT
TERM PHILOSOPHY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE
IS SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS ON
DAYS 4 AND 5. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST DIRECTION...WITHIN THE FLOW PROVIDED BY
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST ANALYSES
INDICATE MODEST 10 KT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE ARRESTING DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A WELL-DEVELOPED CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT A SPEED SIMILAR TO THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS PERSISTENT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED
FORECAST TRACK ESSENTIALLY PARALLELS THE PREVIOUS THROUGH 72
HOURS...BUT IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PRESENTED BY GFEX AND
TVCN CONSENSUS.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 10 KT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
OVER 26C OR GREATER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL
STORM. BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND...WITH SHIPS INDICATING DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...HAS A WEAKER SHEAR PROFILE AND MAINTAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE UPDATED
INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 17.3N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.1N 142.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.3N 145.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.3N 147.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.6N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 23.3N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.1N 158.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 27.1N 163.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 07 2015
A BEVY OF MICROWAVE PASSES RECEIVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
INCLUDING AN AMSU-B PASS AT 0234Z AND SSMI/S PASSES AT 0308Z...
0321Z AND 0418Z...INDICATE THAT THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
ANTICIPATED. LATEST DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB
SUPPORT THIS NORTHWARD NUDGE...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A BANDING FEATURE
THAT BRIEFLY FLARED SOUTH OF THE CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SINCE DIMINISHED...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.
WITH THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD NUDGE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 315/15 KT. ASIDE FROM THE CHANGE IN INITIAL POSITION...SHORT
TERM PHILOSOPHY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE
IS SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS ON
DAYS 4 AND 5. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST DIRECTION...WITHIN THE FLOW PROVIDED BY
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. LATEST ANALYSES
INDICATE MODEST 10 KT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE ARRESTING DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A WELL-DEVELOPED CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT A SPEED SIMILAR TO THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS PERSISTENT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED
FORECAST TRACK ESSENTIALLY PARALLELS THE PREVIOUS THROUGH 72
HOURS...BUT IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PRESENTED BY GFEX AND
TVCN CONSENSUS.
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 10 KT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
OVER 26C OR GREATER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL
STORM. BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND...WITH SHIPS INDICATING DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...HAS A WEAKER SHEAR PROFILE AND MAINTAINS THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE UPDATED
INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 17.3N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.1N 142.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.3N 145.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.3N 147.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.6N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 23.3N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.1N 158.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 27.1N 163.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 AM HST WED JUL 08 2015
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 142.1W
ABOUT 865 MI E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1060 MI ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 AM HST WED JUL 08 2015
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 142.1W
ABOUT 865 MI E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1060 MI ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Yellow Evan
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WTPA41 PHFO 081455
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 AM HST WED JUL 08 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS FAILED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE DUE TO A PAUCITY OF RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES...AND DUE TO WHAT
APPEAR TO BE SHORT-LIVED MID-LEVEL CENTERS RAPIDLY EJECTING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM WHERE THE LLCC IS ASSUMED TO BE. LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5...BUT A
DATA-T IS NEARLY UNATTAINABLE DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. AS ORGANIZATION HAS NOT INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/14 KT...BUT DUE TO THE POORLY
DEFINED CENTER...A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDS THIS MOTION VECTOR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATES NEARLY 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM...WHILE SHIPS INDICATES SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES INITIALLY.
SHEAR VALUES AS HIGH AS 50 KT LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED OF MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS PERSISTENT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM BY DAY 3...BUT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP IT MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST BEFORE THE REMNANT SYSTEM TURNS A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD ON DAY 4. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS GFEX
GUIDANCE.
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY BEFORE THE SYSTEM SUCCUMBS TO THE
DEBILITATING IMPACTS OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WITH
GFS-BASED SHIPS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT
TERM...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS WANING DUE TO THE CYCLONE/S
INABILITY TO CONSOLIDATE OVERNIGHT. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...AND HAS BEEN
NUDGED DOWNWARD...WITH A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON DAY 4
DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 17.5N 142.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 18.5N 143.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.8N 145.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 20.9N 147.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.9N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.4N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 25.5N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 AM HST WED JUL 08 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS FAILED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE DUE TO A PAUCITY OF RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES...AND DUE TO WHAT
APPEAR TO BE SHORT-LIVED MID-LEVEL CENTERS RAPIDLY EJECTING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM WHERE THE LLCC IS ASSUMED TO BE. LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5...BUT A
DATA-T IS NEARLY UNATTAINABLE DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. AS ORGANIZATION HAS NOT INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/14 KT...BUT DUE TO THE POORLY
DEFINED CENTER...A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDS THIS MOTION VECTOR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATES NEARLY 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM...WHILE SHIPS INDICATES SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES INITIALLY.
SHEAR VALUES AS HIGH AS 50 KT LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED OF MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS PERSISTENT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM BY DAY 3...BUT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP IT MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST BEFORE THE REMNANT SYSTEM TURNS A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD ON DAY 4. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS GFEX
GUIDANCE.
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY BEFORE THE SYSTEM SUCCUMBS TO THE
DEBILITATING IMPACTS OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WITH
GFS-BASED SHIPS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT
TERM...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS WANING DUE TO THE CYCLONE/S
INABILITY TO CONSOLIDATE OVERNIGHT. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...AND HAS BEEN
NUDGED DOWNWARD...WITH A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON DAY 4
DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 17.5N 142.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 18.5N 143.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.8N 145.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 20.9N 147.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.9N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.4N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 25.5N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Yellow Evan
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I don't think so.....
WTPA41 PHFO 082044
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
1100 AM HST WED JUL 08 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...MOST LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN
ITS VICINITY. AIR FORCE RECON...VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES HELPED IN DETERMINING THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WHICH LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.0. SINCE
THE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 298/13 KT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. A BIT MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW SOUTH OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES 22 KT OF
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE THE SYSTEM SUCCUMBS TO
THE IMPACTS OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
GUIDANCE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BACK TO A
DEPRESSION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATED BY
DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 17.5N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 18.5N 145.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 147.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 21.0N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.8N 152.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 23.6N 157.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 25.2N 161.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
WTPA41 PHFO 082044
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
1100 AM HST WED JUL 08 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...MOST LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN
ITS VICINITY. AIR FORCE RECON...VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES HELPED IN DETERMINING THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WHICH LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.0. SINCE
THE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 298/13 KT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. A BIT MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW SOUTH OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES 22 KT OF
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE THE SYSTEM SUCCUMBS TO
THE IMPACTS OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
GUIDANCE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BACK TO A
DEPRESSION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATED BY
DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 17.5N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 18.5N 145.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 147.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 21.0N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.8N 152.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 23.6N 157.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 25.2N 161.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Kingarabian
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:CPHC always entertains! Can't fault them though. Structure wise it looks good. Just lacking convection.
Reason I'm barking is that recon found gale-force winds.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:CPHC always entertains! Can't fault them though. Structure wise it looks good. Just lacking convection.
Reason I'm barking is that recon found gale-force winds.
They basically threw out recon wind samples. We've seen them do it last year. It would be nice if they said "While recon earlier found winds supporting a tropical storm upgrade, current satellite imagery shows 04E remains a tropical depression"
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:CPHC always entertains! Can't fault them though. Structure wise it looks good. Just lacking convection.
Reason I'm barking is that recon found gale-force winds.
That is incredible. Why waste tax payers money if you are not even going to use the aircraft data.
It does not matter if something does not look like a TS. If data says it is a TS, then it is a TS. Dvorak is not data. It is an estimate. It seems to get far too much weight, especially when actual data is available. I am saying this as one who routinely makes Dvorak estimates
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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:CPHC always entertains! Can't fault them though. Structure wise it looks good. Just lacking convection.
Reason I'm barking is that recon found gale-force winds.
They basically threw out recon wind samples. We've seen them do it last year. It would be nice if they said "While recon earlier found winds supporting a tropical storm upgrade, current satellite imagery shows 04E remains a tropical depression"
The only think I can think of is that the first pass found lower winds they the first one (Which supported 35-40 knts) compared to the second one which barely supported 35 knts and they must have thought the storm was weakening. I think it's more of undersampling.
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